Upper Saddle River Schools Enrollment Study December, 2016 Ross - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Upper Saddle River Schools Enrollment Study December, 2016 Ross Haber and Associates

Selected Comparative Demographic Data Upper Saddle River 2000 2014 Diff Percent Population 7,741 8,379 638 8.24% Median Age 40.10 42.90 2.80 6.98% Household 2,560 2,776 216 8.44% Median Income $127,635 $188,750 $61,115 47.88% Mean Income $163,979 $267,814 $103,835 63.32% Bergen County 2000 2014 Diff Percent Population 884,118 905,116 20,998 2.38% Median Age 39.10 41.30 2.20 5.63% Household 339,820 353,415 13595 4.00% Median Income $64,271 $84,526 $20,255 31.51% Mean Income $88,999 $115,950 $26,951 30.28% State of New Jersey 2000 2014 Diff Percent Population 8,414,350 8,791,894 377,544 4.49% Median Age 36.70 39.00 2.30 6.27% Household 3,064,645 3,214,360 149,715 4.89% Median Income $55,146 $71,637 $16,491 29.90% Mean Income $74,719 $96,602 $21,883 29.29%

Summary of Enrollment Projection without New Housing Units Projection Without New Housing Dist K-2 3-5 6-8 Self-Cont PK 2011-12 1341 395 455 474 3 14 1341 2016-17 316 377 466 8 22 1189 1189 Diff -152 -79 -78 -8 Percent -11.33% -20.00% -17.14% -1.69% Dist K-2 3-5 6-8 Self-Cont PK 2016-17 1189 316 377 466 8 22 1189 2021-22 1197 415 375 381 2 24 1197 Diff 8 99 -2 -85 Percent 0.67% 31.33% -0.53% -18.24%

Full Projection Table — Without New Housing Units Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K-2 3-5 6-8 Total SCSE PK Total K-8 2011-12 20 126 129 140 146 153 156 157 174 143 395 455 474 1324 3 14 1341 0.99 1.08 1.09 1.04 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1339 -0.15% 2012-13 20 107 125 139 152 152 154 158 158 177 371 458 493 1322 3 14 1.03 1.03 1.09 1.00 1.01 1.05 1.00 0.98 1308 -2.32% 2013-14 18 112 110 129 152 152 154 161 158 155 351 458 474 1283 4 21 0.97 1.01 1.00 0.96 1.01 1.05 0.98 1.00 1248 -4.59% 2014-15 12 109 109 111 129 146 153 162 158 158 329 428 478 1235 1 12 1.05 1.08 1.10 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.01 0.97 1224 -1.92% 2015-16 24 106 114 118 122 127 146 155 164 153 338 395 472 1205 2 17 0.93 1.09 1.08 1.02 0.99 0.97 1.01 1.02 1189 -2.86% 2016-17 13 93 99 124 127 124 126 142 156 168 316 377 466 1159 8 22 -2.37% Av 0.99 1.06 1.07 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.00 Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K-2 3-5 6-8 Total SCSE PK Total K-8 K-8 1137 -7.07% 2016-17 15 112 93 105 133 127 124 128 142 156 309 384 426 1120 2 16 1129 -0.72% 2017-18 15 128 111 98 112 133 128 127 129 142 337 373 397 1107 2 20 1136 0.61% 2018-19 16 132 127 118 105 112 133 130 127 128 377 350 385 1113 2 22 1162 2.26% 2019-20 17 136 131 134 126 105 113 136 130 127 402 344 393 1138 2 22 1197 3.05% 2020-21 15 141 135 139 144 126 105 115 136 130 415 375 381 1172 2 24 -0.37%

Graphic Display-Projection without Housing Units 1400 1350 1341 1339 1300 1308 1250 1248 1224 1200 1197 1189 1150 1162 1137 1136 1129 1100 1050 1000 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Student Yields from Residential Units Student Distribution Town Homes 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 0.1638 0.3402 0.6805 Market Rate 3 10 173 Students 1 4 118 123 0.2338 0.4886 0.9722 Affordable 1 3 18 Students 1 2 18 21 Sub-Total 144 Yield 0.78 Single Family 35 Grand Total 179 Elem 144 29.6 4 per yr/gr HS 36 7.4 2 per yr/gr

Summary of Enrollment Projection with New Housing Units With New Housing Dist K-2 3-5 6-8 Self-Cont PK 2011-12 1341 395 455 474 3 14 1341 2016-17 316 377 466 8 22 1189 1189 Diff -152 -79 -78 -8 Percent -11.33% -20.00% -17.14% -1.69% K-3 4-8 9-12 Self-Cont PK Dist 2016-17 1189 316 377 466 8 22 1189 2021-22 1310 437 421 427 2 24 1311 Diff 121 121 44 -39 Percent 10.18% 38.29% 11.67% -8.37%

Full Projection Table — With New Housing Units With New Housing Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K-2 3-5 6-8 Total SCSE PK Total K-8 2011-12 20 126 129 140 146 153 156 157 174 143 395 455 474 1324 3 14 1341 0.99 1.08 1.09 1.04 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 -0.15% 2012-13 20 107 125 139 152 152 154 158 158 177 371 458 493 1322 3 14 1339 1.03 1.03 1.09 1.00 1.01 1.05 1.00 0.98 -2.32% 2013-14 18 112 110 129 152 152 154 161 158 155 351 458 474 1283 4 21 1308 0.97 1.01 1.00 0.96 1.01 1.05 0.98 1.00 -4.59% 2014-15 12 109 109 111 129 146 153 162 158 158 329 428 478 1235 1 12 1248 1.05 1.08 1.10 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.01 0.97 -1.92% 2015-16 24 106 114 118 122 127 146 155 164 153 338 395 472 1205 2 17 1224 0.93 1.09 1.08 1.02 0.99 0.97 1.01 1.02 -2.86% 2016-17 13 93 99 124 127 124 126 142 156 168 316 377 466 1159 8 22 1189 -2.37% Av 0.99 1.06 1.07 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.00 Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K-2 3-5 6-8 Total SCSE PK Total K-8 K-8 -4.86% 2017-18 15 115 96 108 136 130 127 131 145 159 318 393 435 1147 2 16 1164 1.45% 2018-19 15 131 117 104 118 139 134 133 135 148 353 391 415 1159 2 20 1181 2.55% 2019-20 16 136 134 127 114 121 142 139 136 137 397 378 413 1188 2 22 1211 3.64% 2020-21 17 138 139 144 139 117 125 148 142 139 421 382 429 1232 2 22 1256 4.33% 2021-22 15 147 140 150 158 142 121 130 151 145 437 421 427 1284 2 24 1310

Full Projection Table — With New Housing Units 1400 1350 1341 1339 1300 1310 1308 1250 1256 1248 1200 1224 1211 1189 1181 1150 1164 1100 1050

Samples of Enrollment Changes in Various Districts District Base Year Recent Year Change 5 Years Change Reason Ridgewood 5,701 5,733 32 5,608 -125 Little new construction, stable population Glen Ridge* 1,932 1,921 -11 1,925 4 Little new construction, stable population S. Orng-Mplwd 6,459 6,962 503 7,243 281 Very strong housing sales N Hunt/Voorhees 5,167 4,691 -476 4,409 -282 No land availability for new housing Monroe Twp 5,526 6,485 959 8,020 1,535 Tremendous development (non age rest) North Shore (LI) 2,830 2,665 -165 2,529 -136 No new housing construction Glen Rock 2,439 2,403 -36 2,322 -81 No new housing construction *new study underway