1 Committee for Ballarat 1 Electricity and Gas Market Update Carl Daley 6 April 2017 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Agenda 2 WHAT IS GOING HOW DID THIS WHAT CAN WE ON? HAPPEN DO ABOUT IT? SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Agenda 3 WHAT IS GOING HOW DID THIS WHAT CAN WE ON? HAPPEN DO ABOUT IT? SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Future power prices have taken off … 4 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
and other States too! 5 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Power spot prices explained … 6 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Power spot prices have taken off … 7 Records … • Highest Q1 average price on record in Queensland, NSW and Victoria • Highest March average price in Victoria and NSW on record • Second highest March and Q1 average price for SA on record • Second highest Tasmanian March and Q1 average price on record, only exceeded by last year when the Basslink failed SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Gas spot prices have taken off … 8 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Victorian gas price history … 9 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Lights are going out ( or threatening) … 10 SA System Black NSW sheds Tomago smelter to avoid load shedding SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Record Energy Policies in 3 days 11 9 th 14 th Victorian Government to AEMO warns of blackouts as gas runs out invest extra $20m in large-scale energy storage NSW, Vic and SA face power shortages in the March 2017 next two years that may require LNG exports An extra $20m will be invested in Victoria's to be diverted to maintain power reliability large-scale energy storage, the State standards, according to AEMO following Government says, as it works to address the dramatic cut to domestic gas production state's increasing energy needs. forecasts. 9 10 15 th Crisis meeting on gas as 10 th AEMO releases its Medium 14 15 16 15 Prime Minister fears winter chaos Term Outlook Malcolm Turnbull met with gas company AEMO’s latest outlook predicts gas executives to help secure manufacturing shortages impacting power generation as jobs and provide low-cost heating for early as winter 2017, causing winter forward families by bolstering domestic supply. prices to jump. 14 th SA Energy Minister to be 16 th Snowy Hydro scheme boosted by 2,000MW costing $2bn given more control in state's $500m plan to secure future The Federal Government announced a $2bn intervention in Australia's electricity The plan includes building, owning and supply debate, by expanding the Snowy operating a $360m, 250MW gas-fired plant. Mountains hydro scheme using pump The private sector would also build Australia's storage by 2,000MW. largest battery storage (100MW) before next summer. SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Questions ? 12 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Agenda 13 WHAT IS GOING HOW DID THIS WHAT CAN WE ON? HAPPEN DO ABOUT IT? SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Base supply has tightened … 14 5,700MW closed since 2012 Recent closures SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Hazelwood Power Station closure … 15 Hazelwood generation March 2017 … the end of an era SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Demand has increased … Qld LNG driven 16 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
NSW demand highest since 2011 17 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
AGL Vic has reduced low price generation 18 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Snowy Vic has reduced low price generation 19 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Hydro Tasmania has reduced low price generation 20 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Substantial fuel switch across the NEM 21 Significantly less hydro, and gas running more often SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Domestic gas is being diverted to LNG 22 Santos reported as acquiring 20% of domestic gas and diverting for LNG exports SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Same demand, prices much higher 23 Q1 2017 vs Q1 2016 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Questions ? 24 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Agenda 25 WHAT IS GOING HOW DID THIS WHAT CAN WE ON? HAPPEN DO ABOUT IT? SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Procurement Australia 26 • For customers with contract expiring in 2017 • May be able to be rolled into a lower price agreement struck in late 2015 • Contact Carl Daley for further information SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Behind-the-meter solutions 27 • Be careful about ‘promises’ from sellers • Technology (and cost) is moving fast SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Knowledge Based Strategy 28 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
29 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Agenda 30 WHAT IS GOING HOW DID THIS WHAT CAN WE ON? HAPPEN DO ABOUT IT? SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
Any further questions? 31 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
32 Thank you 32 Carl Daley Managing Director SavvyPlus Consulting carl.daley@savvyplus.com.au 03 9081 0480 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd
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