Updat ate e to to Board d of Trustees ees December 9, 2019 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Updat ate e to to Board d of Trustees ees December 9, 2019

LRPC Committee 42 Me Member bers • Comprised of parents, staff, community members and business leaders • Represent a cross-section of our district and bring varying perspectives from our communities

Committee Charge • Consider the educational needs of all students and align with the district’s mission, vision and goals • Represent the entire NISD community, its values and perceptions during the planning process • Assess and prioritize the district’s current and long -term facility needs, including, but not limited to: • District Growth and Capacity • Building Conditions and Infrastructure • Safety and Security • Evolving Educational Delivery and Programs • Form a recommendation for consideration by the NISD Board of Trustees

Committee Schedule Meeting ing #1 Tuesday, October 8 NISD Administration Building Meeting ing #2 Tuesday, October 22 Lance Thompson Elementary Meeting ing #3 Tuesday, November 5 Leo Adams Middle School Meeting ing #4 Tuesday, November 19 VR Eaton High School Meeting ing #5 Tuesday, December 10 Northwest High School Meeting ing #6 Thursday, January 9 NISD Administration Building Reco commendations dations Thursday, January 30* NISD Administration Building *Tentative

Committee Agendas st Me nd Me th Me 1 st Meeting ting 2 nd Meeting ting 3 rd Me Meeting ting 4 th Meeting ting Introductions Toured Lance Toured Adams MS Toured Eaton HS Thompson ES Reviewed Potential Received Bond District Overview Projects: Capacity Report School Finance LRPC Overview Overview Growth Received Survey • Results Departmental • Facility-Planning NISD Finance Reviewed Potential Needs Process Overview Projects: Capital • Bond History in NISD Templeton 1 st Prioritization Improvements Demographic Report Activity Equity/Evolving • Discuss Potential Needs Projects Needed for Renovations/ • Growth Replacements

Bonding Capacity & Tax Rate Information Jeff Robert, NISD Financial Advisor 1201 Elm Street Suite 3500 Dallas, Texas 75270 214.953.8744 jeff.robert@hilltopsecurities.com

Northwest ISD Historical T ax Base and T ax Rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 Fiscal Fi l Yea ear M& M&O Tax Ra Rate Tot otal Tax Ra Rate Tax Base Base Gr Growt wth Ra Rate I&S &S Tax Ra Rate 8.49 .49% 2010 2010 10,307,632,937 $1.0200 $0.3350 $1.3550 2011 2011 9,957,668,803 -4.06 .06% $1.0400 $0.3350 $1.3750 2012 2012 10,307,632,937 3.51 .51% $1.0400 $0.3350 $1.3750 2013 2013 -0.98 .98% 10,207,009,131 $1.0400 $0.3350 $1.3750 2014 2014 -3.04% 9,896,396,950 $1.0400 $0.4125 $1.4525 12.63% 2015 2015 11,145,882,079 $1.0400 $0.4125 $1.4525 2016 2016 11,705,540,348 5.02% $1.0400 $0.4125 $1.4525 2017 2017 6.11% $1.0400 $0.4125 $1.4525 12,420,509,120 2018 2018 13.14% 14,052,963,119 $1.0400 $0.4500 $1.4900 2019 2019 18.88% 16,705,492,613 $1.0400 $0.4500 $1.4900 2020 2020 19,211,316,505 15.00% $0.9700 $0.4500 $1.4200 SOURCE: HilltopSecurities Internal Records

NISD Capacity Scenario T ax Base Assumptions Because school districts issue long term Tax ax Bas ase Gr Growth Assumptio ions bonds to pay for their large capital Fis iscal l Year ar Tax ax Bas ase Growth Rate expenditures, tax base assumptions are used to structure the issuance of any new 2021 $ 20,652,165,243 7.50% authorization in order to calculate/project 2022 22,201,077,636 7.50% the I&S tax rate going forward. 2023 23,866,158,459 7.50% 2024 25,656,120,343 7.50% If the NISD tax base grows at a slower than projected rate, the bonds will likely 2025 26,938,926,360 5.00% be issued at a slower rate. For example, 2026 28,285,872,678 5.00% current issuance scenarios project the 2027 29,700,166,312 5.00% issuance of potential new authorization 2028 31,185,174,628 5.00% over the next 7 years. If the tax base grows slower than what is projected, the TAX AX BAS ASE ASSU ASSUMED TO O GR GROW AT T 1% % potential new authorization would likely THER TH EREAFT FTER be issued over 8 or 9 years.

Bond Principal Outstanding Comparison Total Principal Outstanding as of 9/1/19 Principal Average Daily Total Tax Square District Outstanding Attendance (ADA) Rate Miles Northwest $ 934,245,470 22,930 $1.42 234.03 Alvin 815,705,000 24,339 1.40 250.72 No two districts are the Comal 747,720,503 22,649 1.32 585.86 same, however we have included the outstanding Conroe 1,207,585,000 59,356 1.23 345.45 bond principal and tax Cy-Fair 2,586,595,000 108,926 1.37 187.74 rates for several other Denton 1,131,969,103 28,317 1.47 169.26 fast- growth ISD’s for Fort Bend 1,092,173,767 72,479 1.29 169.31 comparative purposes. Frisco 1,952,677,590 57,483 1.34 74.85 Note that several of Katy 1,843,845,000 76,120 1.44 172.00 these districts have Leander 1,074,905,442 38,238 1.44 198.36 current authorized but Lewisville 1,269,936,036 48,946 1.34 124.89 unissued bonds or are considering future bond Mansfield 928,545,000 33,400 1.46 93.72 elections. Northside 2,201,695,000 98,227 1.31 316.49 North East 1,476,340,000 60,585 1.29 132.35 Prosper 790,378,636 13,795 1.57 58.82 SOURCE: Municipal Advisory Council

11/22/19 NISD Compared to Fast-Growth Districts in North T exas % of Authorized, Debt per Square Principal Outstanding Enrollment* Total Tax Rate District District but Unissued Bonds Student** Miles Built Out Northwest $ 934,245,470 $ 199,000,000 22,930 $ 49,422 $ 1.42 25% 234.03 $ 140,434,042 $ 560,000,000 2,575 $ 272,013 $ 1.55 25% 95.74 Celina $ 1,131,969,103 $ 308,070,000 28,317 $ 50,854 $ 1.47 40% 169.26 Denton Princeton $ 189,588,384 $ 250,000,000 4,551 $ 96,592 $ 1.57 40% 63.51 Prosper $ 790,378,636 $ 1,287,000,000 13,795 $ 150,589 $ 1.57 60% 58.82 Eagle Mountain- $ 611,083,150 $ 595,755,000 18,916 $ 63,800 $ 1.52 65% 73.92 Saginaw * Enrollment is the Refined Average Daily Attendance (RADA) ** Debt includes authorized, but unissued bonds SOURCES: Municipal Advisory Council Hilltop Securities, Templeton Demographics

11/22/19 NISD in Contrast to Districts Nearing Build Out in North T exas % of Authorized, Debt per Square Principal Outstanding Enrollment* Total Tax Rate District District but Unissued Bonds Student** Miles Built Out Northwest $ 934,245,470 $ 199,000,000 22,930 $ 49,422 $ 1.42 25% 234.03 $ 982,365,000 --- 33,400 $ 29,412 $ 1.46 85% 93.72 Mansfield Keller $ 649,855,320 $ 315,000,000 33,234 $ 29,032 $ 1.41 90% 51.00 Grapevine- $ 435,416,058 --- 13,118 $ 33,192 $ 1.33 95% 53.21 Colleyville Lewisville $ 1,269,936,036 $ 210,025,000 48,946 $ 30,237 $ 1.34 95% 124.89 Birdville $ 397,327,084 $ 97,686,585 21,960 $ 22,542 $ 1.52 95% 40.13 * Enrollment is the Refined Average Daily Attendance (RADA) ** Debt includes authorized, but unissued bonds SOURCES: Municipal Advisory Council Hilltop Securities, Templeton Demographics

Bond Issuance Capacity Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 PROJECTED: November 7, 2019 'AAA' Tax Exempt Interest Rates: PLUS 0.50% PLUS 0.75% PLUS 1.00% PLUS 1.00% PLUS 1.00% PLUS 1.00% PLUS 1.00% Series 2020 Series 2021 Series 2022 Series 2023 Series 2024 Series 2025 Series 2026 Maximum Current I&S Tax Rate 25 Yr @ 3.55% 25 Yr @ 3.80% 25 Yr @ 4.15% 25 Yr @ 4.15% 25 Yr @ 4.15% 25 Yr @ 4.15% 25 Yr @ 4.15% Election Size I&S Tax Rate I&S Tax Rate Increase $ 0.4500 $ 1,000,000,000 $ 100,000,000 $ 150,000,000 $ 150,000,000 $ 150,000,000 $ 150,000,000 $ 150,000,000 $ 150,000,000 - $ 0.4500 = $ - PROJECTED I&S TAX RATE: Before and After Prospective $1,000,000,000 May 2020 Capacity Scenario $0.50 After $1,000,000,000 2020 Capacity Scenario Before 2020 Bond Election $0.45 Projected I&S Tax Rate $0.40 $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050

Scenario Observations ✓ 25 year terms assumed for all bond issues. At least 10% of principal amortized/’paid off’ within first five years of each bond issue ✓ Assumed interest rates: Series 2020-current+0.50%; Series 2021-current+0.75%; Series 2022, Series 2023, Series 2024, Series 2025, Series 2026-current+1.00% ✓ The combination of the Permanent School Fund Guarantee (‘AAA’ rating) and NISD’s outstanding underlying ratings: Fitch: ‘AA’; Moody’s: ‘Aa2’; mean that NISD’s bonds will achieve the lowest interest rates available in the financial marketplace on any given issuance day ✓ If actual tax base comes in lower than assumptions, delayed/slower issuance, I&S fund balance and/or refundings/restructurings would be completed to stay at or below projected maximum tax rates

Survey Results Matt Gamble, Baselice& Associates

NORTHWEST ISD VOTER SURVEY November 9 - 12, 2019 N = 375 respondents - margin of error: + 5.1% OBJECTIVES To assess general attitudes about Northwest 1 ISD. To assess current levels of support for, and 2 opposition to, a $700 million bond proposal. 3 To measure the favorability of bond elements.