University of Twente technological research Analysis of future - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

University of Twente technological research Analysis of future development of renewable energy technologies

Research question  What are the expectations and perceived vulnerabilities in authorative scenarios and academic literature regarding the development of renewable energy technologies in the period 2020 – 2050?

Authoritive groups  International Energy Agency (IEA)  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

IEA scenarios  Current policies, 40% renewables by 2050  2-Degrees, 76% renewables by 2050  New policies, 53% by 2050

Wind Energy  Wind will be highest share in renewables  Current policies: 16,0%  2-Degrees: 34,4%  New policies: 22,6%  Current efficiency is ca. 50% , maximum theoretical efficiency is 59%

Wind Turbine size

Solar PV  Expected share of PV in Europe is small  Current policies: 3,5%  2-Degrees: 7,4%  New policies: 4,9%  Matured technology, still lot of room for improvement, price per kWh

PV is becoming cheap  Costs of silicon PV will decrease 19-36% by 2025 and 40- 72% by 2050.  New materials are being developed  Organic PV (12% efficiency, $30/ m2)  Currently j ust as expensive as offshore wind

Concentrated Solar Power 

Bioenergy  2nd generation biofuels will add to an increased share  Current policies: 5,8% by 2050  2-Degrees: 9,4% by 2050  New policies: 6,6% by 2050  Not location specific

Hydropower  Not expected to develop further in the EU  Very specific locations  Current policies: 12,9% by 2050  2-Degrees: 18% by 2050  New policies: 15,2% by 2050  Improved life-cycle of components

Geothermal  Uses earth’s interior heat by drilling and heating water  Current policies: 0,57% by 2050  2-Degrees: 1,64% by 2050  New policies: 0,9% by 2050  No significant changes in costs expected

Ocean Energy  Will not play a significant role in the energy transition until at least 2030  Not yet commercialized  Hardly any literature on this subj ect available

Energy efficiency  Converting energy  Energy loss in chain  High Temperature S uperconductors (HTS ) can increase efficiency to 99.9%  Predictions very dependent on innovations in technologies

Energy storage  Very important for energy transition  S hare of renewables can increase only with energy storage technologies.  Pumped Hydro S torage is currently largest share of storage (99% )  Battery systems are promising  S torage facilitates effective use of energy produced by renewable sources

Risks and uncertainties  Future is uncertain  Focus on production, while storage is necessary  Full dependence on technology instead of politics  Neglected infrastructure