Unemployed SET Graduates 27 August 2012 Jansie Niehaus, Exec Director NSTF
Overview • Anecdotal evidence from NSTF: recent gathering (17 Aug 2012) + National Youth Service (since 2007). • Cloete, N. (ed). 2009. Responding to the Educational Needs of Post School Youth . Centre for Higher Education Transformation. AND the DHET’s Green Paper on Post School Education (2012) • News of Adcorp figures (2012) • Branson, Leibbrandt and Zuze. 2009. The demand for tertiary education in South Africa (SALDRU)
Anecdotal evidence - NSTF • 17 August 2012: NSTF SET Graduate Gathering, Turbine Hall. One advert in The Star newspaper. • About 150 responses. (Accepted 70) • This was the first such meeting. • (Are planning a series of such meetings, in collaboration with SAGDA, next one 25 Sept)
The advertisement… Are you a young South African graduate ... With a National Diploma in Engineering A Bachelor of Science Degree, or A postgraduate degree (BTech, Honours, etc)? Are you struggling to find employment?
Advert (cont) If so, come and … Meet professionals in science, engineering and technology, Hear about opportunities for further study, internships, etc, Gain advice about how to look for a job and keep motivated. ... You might just find the answers you have been looking for!
DST’s National Youth Service • Work at Science Centres, like SciBono, Newtown. • 1 year • About 56 Science Centres across the country – see SAASTEC – www.saastec.co.za • Do science demos for kids – entertain them, teach them… • Good monthly stipend • Experience • Contact www.saasta.ac.za - click on National Youth Service Programme (toward bottom of the menu on the left hand side)
National Youth Service (NYS) • Implemented NYS on behalf of DST from late 2007 to March 2012. • Evaluation Report can be downloaded on www.nstf.org.za Click on ‘Youth’ tab, then on NYS on the left hand menu. • An advert was placed ONCE in 2007: 527 applications were received. (479 from African graduates). The first intake was selected from these: 80 were selected by the 21 participating Science Centres across the country. We only advertised twice over the 4 and a half years.
Numbers in the NYS Programme • a total of 331 people have been NYS volunteers since the programme began in 2008. Of these, 190 are female (57%). The racial composition of the group of volunteers is: 296 Africans (89%), 11 Coloureds (3%), 16 Indians (5%) and 7 Whites (2%). • Asked why they had joined the NYS Programme: 78% gave the reason that they were unemployed.
Where did they come from? • “by far the largest number of NYS volunteers were graduates of the University of Limpopo, followed by the University of Venda. This raises concerns about how well-informed graduates of these institutions are about job opportunities and how to successfully apply for them, and possibly about whether there are additional workplace-related skills that they may need.”
Reasons for exiting the Programme End of contract 25,2 Employment 21,5 offer (contract) Employment offer 36,0 (permanent) Internship 8,9
What do these numbers suggest? • We could initially only place 80, or about 15%, of the 527 graduates who applied. • If the 331 graduates who benefitted from the NYS programme represent only 15% of the unemployed SET graduates, there should be at least another 1876 graduates who could have made use of the programme over the past 4 years.
From the Green Paper on Post School Education, DHET • Cloete, N. (ed). 2009. Responding to the Educational Needs of Post School Youth . Cape Town: Centre for Higher Education Transformation. • “A study of post -school youth conducted by the Centre for Higher Education Transformation (CHET) and the Further Education and Training Institute (FETI) has shown clearly the nature of the problem – although it understates it since it excludes young people over the age of 24.” • 2007 there were 2.8 million people between the ages of 18 and 24 who were not employed. Including 50.7% of the 23 and 24 yr age group!
Numbers of unemployed graduates (<25 yrs) with... • Certificate with Gr 12 47,035 • Diploma with Gr 12 25,294 • Bachelors degree 9,352 • BTech 1,780 • Post grad diploma 2,498 • Honours degree 1,695 • Masters/PHD 420 (Source StatsSA, 2007)
Definition of ‘Graduate’? • UCT academic Haroon Bhorat claimed that there were up to a 100 000 unemployed ‘graduates’ . This claim led, amongst other things, to the National Treasury restricting the expansion of HE. • The key graduate unemployment statistics for 2007 are: There were 15 745 graduates unemployed and not studying. [i.e. excluding the Diploma graduates!] • But in addition, there were 72 329 matriculants with diplomas/certificates unemployed. Thus a possible total of 88 174 . With young people from age 25 included, there would probably be a total of more than 100 000.
In 2007, If ‘Graduate’ = 1. Bachelor’s degree, Btech, Honours, upwards: 15 745 unemployed graduates 2. National Diploma, Bachelor’s degree, etc, upwards: 41 039 unemployed graduates 3. Certificate, ND, B degree, etc, upwards: - 88 174 unemployed graduates
“a worrisome trend in graduate unemployment...” : • Figures for graduates (with B degrees, upwards): 8 581 in 1996, 6 061 in 2001, 15 745 in 2007. • In the 6 years from 2001 to 2007, the number of unemployed HE graduates increased by 260% . • In the 11 years from 1996, to 2007, the number increased by 183% . • If this figure was to increase by 200% over the past 5 years, it was projected as being 31 490 in the current year (2012) • Which is 367% of the 1996 figure (that is, over the past 16 years). •
Green Paper (cont) • P 16 • “The response to the crisis of post -school 18 – 24- year-old youth is not only the responsibility of the DHET. It will involve expanding a range of educational and training (plus internship) opportunities, as well as expanded employment and special youth service programmes. • “This will require a coordinated response from a developmental state.”
“State to import 50 000 professionals” February 1 2012 at 05:44pm Business Report (news) • “The department of Home Affairs has been tasked with facilitating the entry of 50 000 critically skilled professionals including civil, chemical, electrical and mechanical engineers in the next three years” • Adcorp Employment Index this month showed that were about 600 000 unemployed graduates in the country. Although most did not possess critical or scarce skills…
Engineering • Engineering Council of South Africa’s 2010/11 annual report showed that there were 10 751 professionals registered as candidates. • Of that, 2301 had been registered in this candidate category for over six years. • Only 234 candidates moved to the professional engineer category in the period. • But not all unemployed engineering graduates are registered with ECSA… [A fee is to be paid, and there is limited benefit in registering]
SALDRU Report (Southern Africa Labour & Development Research Unit), UCT THE DEMAND FOR TERTIARY EDUCATION IN SOUTH AFRICA REPORT September 2009 Nicola Branson, Murray Leibbrandt and Tia Linda Zuze
Objectives of the report: 1. to clarify the relationship between the length of stay in education and access to the job market based on South African household survey data. 2. to contribute to what is known about what influences participation in higher education institutions for young South Africans who have successfully completed secondary school.
SALDRU Report (cont) • we restrict the sample to 25-35 year olds in the hope that this group will either have completed or be well on the way to completing their tertiary education. Such a view maximises the chances of seeing changes in the demand for post-secondary training.
SALDRU Report (cont) • The analysis makes use of annual data from the nationally representative September Labour Force Surveys (LFS) between 2000 and 2007 . The LFS is a biannual survey with a strong focus on the labour market and therefore includes detailed information on access to both formal and informal employment, earnings and hours of employment. In addition, the survey collects individual and household information including highest level of educational attainment, current enrolment and training.
Formal employment & length of education • “ The formally employed have, on average, close to an additional year of education when compared to the unemployed in each year. • ….formally employed South Africans have much higher rates of matriculation completion and tertiary qualification. • The percentages of matric and tertiary are 36 and 5 percent for the unemployed (respectively). • The self employed have educational levels in between these two categories, with around 10 years of completed education,…”
Change in the odds of employment:
Change in the odds of Self-employment
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