Economic mobility, Maine’s economy, and the unemployed Whole Family Approach to Jobs Augusta, Maine May 10, 2018 Katharine Bradbury Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Overview • Mobility research lessons • Characteristics of the unemployed and underemployed in Maine and potential barriers to employment o Statewide o By region • Projected occupational growth in Maine • Improving job quality and earnings
Inter-generational mobility [this slide downloaded from www.inequality.com/slides] Update through 2008, Pursuing the American Dream: Economic Mobility Across Generations. July 2012.
Intra-generational mobility • 10-year family income mobility is modest • Key factors/characteristics in moving up from the bottom o Beginning-of period characteristics Educational attainment Family type and composition Employment status, work hours Disability status Race o Changes during period – obtain more education, get married, find a job, add work hours – consistent with levels Sources: • Gregory Acs & Seth Zimmerman. 2008. “U.S. Intragenerational Economic Mobility from 1984 to 2004: Trends and Implications” Economic Mobility Project (Pew). • Katharine Bradbury (in process).
Employment expanding, although growth rate has slowed Payroll employment % change from year earlier 8 6 4 United States 2 0 Maine -2 -4 -6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
Recovery from Great Recession: Unemployment coming down since 2009 Unemployment rate (%) 12 10 United States 8 6 Maine 4 2 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older into • Labor force, consisting of o Employed: working at a job o Unemployed: actively seeking work o Labor force participation rate: fraction of population age 16 and older who are working or actively seeking work (employed + unemployed) • Not in labor force: all other civilians age 16 and older o Out of labor force reasons include caring for family, retirement, going to school, ill or disabled, other o Small fraction of out-of-labor-force would like a job.
Broad patterns very similar in Maine and United States: Employment declines and unemployment band widens in recessions Maine United States 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 employed unemployed not in labor force employed Unemployed not in labor force Next: characteristics of unemployed in Maine Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
Maine unemployed more concentrated under age 20 and over 59 than nationwide; employed somewhat older (45+) in Maine Age Mix of Unemployed Age Mix of Employed 25 25 20 20 ME EMP ME UN US EMP US UN 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.
Unemployed in Maine are more likely to be poor or disabled than are employed; both poor and disabled concentrated in not-in-labor-force 40 Percentage below Poverty Line Percentage with a Disability 35 35 30 30 25 ME US 25 ME US 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Population Not in labor Unemployed Employed Population Not in labor Unemployed Employed force force Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.
Maine’s unemployed are less educated than unemployed nationwide, more with diploma, but notably fewer go beyond high school Maine, age 25+ United States, age 25+ 100 100 14 17 90 90 20 21 31 33 36 37 80 80 23 70 70 29 28 31 60 60 31 30 50 50 32 31 40 40 51 32 41 32 30 30 26 32 20 20 24 29 10 10 20 16 13 11 11 9 6 4 0 0 Population Not in labor Unemployed Employed Population Not in labor Unemployed Employed force force Less than high school High school diploma Less than high school High school diploma Some college or assoc Bachelor's or higher Some college or assoc Bachelor's or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.
Family Type and Labor Force Status, 2016 Most parents in Maine 100% are in the labor force Male head - not in LF 90% • 50% of all Maine families 80% Male head - in LF with children are 70% Female head - not in LF married-couple families and have both husband 60% Female head - in LF and wife in labor force 50% • Another 14% have head MC - both not in LF 40% OR spouse in labor force MC - wife in LF, husband 30% • Plus 28% of Maine not families with children are 20% MC - husband in LF, wife single-head families with not head in labor force 10% MC - both in LF 0% MC = married couple ME all families ME w/ children US w/children Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.
Un Under eremplo loyed ed • “Underemployed” usually defined as those involuntarily working part- time = working part-time for economic reasons o Slack work o Cannot find a full time job • Another category of interest is those marginally attached to the labor force: o Discouraged workers o Others marginally attached – would like a job, available for work, have searched for work in prior 12 months but not in previous 4 weeks Any of these might begin active search if economic conditions improved • BLS counts people in these categories at the state level, but provides no data on their characteristics.
Underemployed and marginally attached U3 standard unemployment rate U4 = U3 plus discouraged workers U5 all marginally attached as well U6 adds part-time for economic reasons United States Maine 12-month moving average 12-month moving average 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 U3 U4 U5 U6 U3 U4 U5 U6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
Involuntary Part-Time Workers • Number of involuntary part-time in Maine similar to number of un employed o Fewer unemployed now than before Great Recession o More involuntary part-time now than before Great Recession • Research (nationwide data) suggests higher levels of involuntary part-time work are likely to persist because of structural changes in the economy [Rob Valletta & co-authors, FRB San Francisco] o Industry composition shifting toward leisure & hospitality and education & health services sectors; these sectors tend to have uneven work schedules o Growth in “gig” economy • Involuntary part-time work is more prevalent among less-educated workers; hourly pay is lower for involuntary part-timers than for full-time workers in similar jobs [Rebecca Glauber, UNH]
Within Maine geographic patterns: Unemployment rate 2017 Annual average 2017: • Maine rate: 3.3 % • U.S. rate: 4.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.
Within Maine geographic patterns: Poverty rate 2012-2016 Maine rate: 13.2% U.S. rate: 13.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates 2012-2016.
Within Maine geographic patterns: Percentage of population age 25+ who did not go beyond high school diploma, 2012-2016 Maine: 38.1% U.S.: 37.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates 2012-2016.
Maine Occupational Projections (www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html) Top 25 most openings during the 2014-2024 period Most of these fast- • growth occupations typically require no formal credential or a high school diploma Note also that • many of these jobs are in retail, leisure & hospitality and education & health services
Education of job-growth Educational Mix, Maine occupations vs. 100 unemployed in Maine 14 90 23 36 Openings concentrated more at low 80 • Bachelor's or more end than are credentials of current 23 11 70 unemployed 60 More than HS, less Most Maine low-education unemployed o than bachelor's have high school diploma, while more 50 31 32 than half of high-school-or-less openings require no formal education credential 40 High school diploma 51 or equivalent Poor match at the bottom – Maine o 30 unemployed are overqualified for projected job openings 20 No formal 29 35 credential/less than Caveat: Education mix of labor force in • 10 high school Maine does not include ages 16-24 11 4 0 Beyond high school, Maine Job openings Unemployed Employed • unemployed have too little education 2014-2024 25+ 25+ Job openings reflect mix of “typical education” of annual total openings, all occupations, Maine Job Outlook . Sources: Maine Job Outlook and (for unemployed and unemployed) U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, 2016
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