[PPT] - Economic mobility, Maines economy, and the unemployed Whole Family PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Economic mobility, Maine’s economy, and the unemployed

Whole Family Approach to Jobs Augusta, Maine May 10, 2018

Katharine Bradbury Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

SLIDE 2

Overview

Mobility research lessons
Characteristics of the unemployed and underemployed in Maine and

potential barriers to employment

Statewide
By region
Projected occupational growth in Maine
Improving job quality and earnings

SLIDE 3

 Update through 2008, Pursuing the American Dream: Economic Mobility Across Generations. July 2012.

Inter-generational mobility [this slide downloaded from www.inequality.com/slides]

SLIDE 4

Intra-generational mobility

10-year family income mobility is modest
Key factors/characteristics in moving up from the bottom
Beginning-of period characteristics
Educational attainment
Family type and composition
Employment status, work hours
Disability status
Race
Changes during period – obtain more education, get married, find a job, add work

hours – consistent with levels

Sources:

Gregory Acs & Seth Zimmerman. 2008. “U.S. Intragenerational Economic Mobility from 1984 to 2004: Trends and

Implications” Economic Mobility Project (Pew).

Katharine Bradbury (in process).

SLIDE 5

Employment expanding, although growth rate has slowed

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

6
4
2

2 4 6 8

Payroll employment % change from year earlier Maine United States

SLIDE 6

Recovery from Great Recession: Unemployment coming down since 2009

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

2 4 6 8 10 12 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Unemployment rate (%) United States Maine

SLIDE 7

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older into

Labor force, consisting of
Employed: working at a job
Unemployed: actively seeking work
Labor force participation rate: fraction of population age 16 and older who

are working or actively seeking work (employed + unemployed)

Not in labor force: all other civilians age 16 and older
Out of labor force reasons include caring for family, retirement, going to

school, ill or disabled, other

Small fraction of out-of-labor-force would like a job.

SLIDE 8

Broad patterns very similar in Maine and United States:

Employment declines and unemployment band widens in recessions

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Maine

employed unemployed not in labor force 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

United States

employed Unemployed not in labor force

 Next: characteristics of unemployed in Maine

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

SLIDE 9

Maine unemployed more concentrated under age 20 and over 59 than nationwide; employed somewhat older (45+) in Maine

5 10 15 20 25

Age Mix of Employed

ME EMP US EMP 5 10 15 20 25

Age Mix of Unemployed

ME UN US UN

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.

SLIDE 10

Unemployed in Maine are more likely to be poor or disabled than are employed; both poor and disabled concentrated in not-in-labor-force

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Population Not in labor force Unemployed Employed

Percentage below Poverty Line

ME US

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Population Not in labor force Unemployed Employed

Percentage with a Disability

ME US

SLIDE 11

Maine’s unemployed are less educated than unemployed nationwide, more with diploma, but notably fewer go beyond high school

6 13 11 4 32 41 51 29 31 29 23 32 31 17 14 36 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Population Not in labor force Unemployed Employed

Maine, age 25+

Less than high school High school diploma Some college or assoc Bachelor's or higher 11 20 16 9 26 32 32 24 30 28 31 31 33 20 21 37 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Population Not in labor force Unemployed Employed

United States, age 25+

Less than high school High school diploma Some college or assoc Bachelor's or higher

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.

SLIDE 12

Most parents in Maine are in the labor force

50% of all Maine families

with children are married-couple families and have both husband and wife in labor force

Another 14% have head

OR spouse in labor force

Plus 28% of Maine

families with children are single-head families with head in labor force

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ME all families ME w/ children US w/children

Family Type and Labor Force Status, 2016

Male head - not in LF Male head - in LF Female head - not in LF Female head - in LF MC - both not in LF MC - wife in LF, husband not MC - husband in LF, wife not MC - both in LF

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 2016.

MC = married couple

SLIDE 13

Un Under eremplo loyed ed

“Underemployed” usually defined as those involuntarily working part-

time = working part-time for economic reasons

Slack work
Cannot find a full time job
Another category of interest is those marginally attached to the labor

force:

Discouraged workers
Others marginally attached – would like a job, available for work, have

searched for work in prior 12 months but not in previous 4 weeks  Any of these might begin active search if economic conditions improved

BLS counts people in these categories at the state level, but provides

no data on their characteristics.

SLIDE 14

Underemployed and marginally attached

U3 standard unemployment rate U4 = U3 plus discouraged workers U5 all marginally attached as well U6 adds part-time for economic reasons

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Maine

12-month moving average

U3 U4 U5 U6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States

12-month moving average

U3 U4 U5 U6

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

SLIDE 15

Involuntary Part-Time Workers

Number of involuntary part-time in Maine similar to number of unemployed
Fewer unemployed now than before Great Recession
More involuntary part-time now than before Great Recession
Research (nationwide data) suggests higher levels of involuntary part-time work

are likely to persist because of structural changes in the economy [Rob Valletta &

co-authors, FRB San Francisco]

Industry composition shifting toward leisure & hospitality and education & health services

sectors; these sectors tend to have uneven work schedules

Growth in “gig” economy
Involuntary part-time work is more prevalent among less-educated workers;

hourly pay is lower for involuntary part-timers than for full-time workers in similar jobs [Rebecca Glauber, UNH]

SLIDE 16

Within Maine geographic patterns:

Unemployment rate 2017

Annual average 2017:

Maine rate: 3.3 %
U.S. rate: 4.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.

SLIDE 17

Within Maine geographic patterns:

Poverty rate 2012-2016

Maine rate: 13.2% U.S. rate: 13.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates 2012-2016.

SLIDE 18

Within Maine geographic patterns:

Percentage of population age 25+ who did not go beyond high school diploma, 2012-2016

Maine: 38.1% U.S.: 37.8%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates 2012-2016.

SLIDE 19

Maine Occupational Projections (www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html)

Top 25 most

penings during the

2014-2024 period

Most of these fast-

growth occupations typically require no formal credential or a high school diploma

Note also that

many of these jobs are in retail, leisure & hospitality and education & health services

SLIDE 20

Education of job-growth

ccupations vs.

unemployed in Maine

Openings concentrated more at low

end than are credentials of current unemployed

Most Maine low-education unemployed

have high school diploma, while more than half of high-school-or-less openings require no formal education credential

Poor match at the bottom – Maine

unemployed are overqualified for projected job openings

Caveat: Education mix of labor force in

Maine does not include ages 16-24

Beyond high school, Maine

unemployed have too little education

Job openings reflect mix of “typical education” of annual total openings, all occupations, Maine Job Outlook.

Sources: Maine Job Outlook and (for unemployed and unemployed) U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, 2016

35 11 4 31 51 29 11 23 32 23 14 36 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Job openings 2014-2024 Unemployed 25+ Employed 25+

Educational Mix, Maine

Bachelor's or more More than HS, less than bachelor's High school diploma

r equivalent

No formal credential/less than high school

SLIDE 21

Improving earnings for low-wage workers

Recommendations from Harry Holzer, “Jobs for the working class: Raising earnings among non- college graduates” Brookings Institution, April 23, 2018

Better skills: upgrade education and training of individuals
Supports for disadvantaged students at community colleges to enhance completion
Financial support and incentives for community colleges to expand capacity in areas

associated with expanding jobs

Employer participation in training partnerships with colleges/apprentice programs
Better jobs: encourage “high-road” employer practices
Moderately higher minimum wages
More protection for public and private collective bargaining
Aid to depressed regions – improve job availability
Reduce barriers to work (opioid dependence, criminal records, discrimination)
Make work pay (minimum wage, EITC, work supports such as child care & transportation)

SLIDE 22