Understanding the Economic Disruption in Your Community Caused by COVID-19
Kyle Adams President of Mid-America EDC Vice President RDC National, Inc.
Agenda ● Welcome / Intros ● Essential vs. Non-Essential Breakdown ● Economic Impact to Main Street, Construction Sector ● Pivoting to resilient, in-demand skills
Community Insights Team , Economic & Workforce Development Josh Wright – EVP Drew Repp – Content Manager, Econ. & Workforce Development John Hawkins – Director, Workforce Development
Following public health concerns and questions... Next question: what is the economic impact on ________?
Not completely analogous to previous major events ● Global Financial Crisis (internal cause) ● Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey (single events/locations, loss of infrastructure) ● 9/11 (immediate, unforeseen) Most similar to GFC: ● Widespread ● Economic Contraction ● Stimulus package ● Uncertainty
Contributions Analysis – measures any and every dollar that touches a specific industry along with the associated multiplier effect. Gross Regional Product (GRP) Analysis – examines the amount of total value added in a region that stems from a particular industry or firm. Economic Impact Analysis – determines the net change to the economic base of a region that can be attributed to a firm or industry that otherwise would not be there.
Economic Impact Analysis: Input-Output Models ● Assess how money flows in a region ● Includes: ○ How money is exchanged between industries ○ How employees spend salaries ○ Tax revenue ○ Long-term investment ○ And much more (Emsi I-O model took three years to create) ● Change or shock (input) ● Multiplier effects (output)
Output: the impacts Initial : The basic shock to the economy that occurs as a direct result of the change. Direct : The effect of new input purchases by the initially changed industries. Change is due to inter-industry effects and captures the supply chain impact. Indirect : The subsequent ripple effect in further supply chains resulting from the direct change. Induced : Change due to new earnings, investment, and government created by the initial, direct, and indirect changes.
Essential vs. Non-Essential
Essential vs. Non-Essential Workers ● Identified by Homeland Security / Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). ● Based on 16 critical infrastructure sectors at the national level. ● Can vary heavily by region, state, county, and city. https://www.cisa.gov/publication/guidance-essential-critical-infrastructure-workforce
Metros Over 500k Population Highest Share of Highest Share of MSA Name MSA Name Essential Workers Non-Essential Workers Bakersfield, CA 62.8% Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 61.2% Fayetteville, NC 62.2% Provo-Orem, UT 61.1% Stockton, CA 59.3% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 56.7% Fresno, CA 59.2% Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 56.6% Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA 58.1% Raleigh-Cary, NC 56.3% Modesto, CA 57.0% Greenville-Anderson, SC 56.1% Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 56.4% Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 56.0% Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 55.1% Wichita, KS 55.8% Jackson, MS 55.1% Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC 55.0% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 55.0% Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 54.9% Columbia, SC 55.0% Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI 54.8% Urban Honolulu, HI 54.9% Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 54.6% Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 54.8% Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 54.3% Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA 54.6% Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR 54.1% Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA 53.8% Greensboro-High Point, NC 54.1%
Metros 100K-500K Population Highest Share of Highest Share of MSA Name MSA Name Essential Workers Non-Essential Workers Hanford-Corcoran, CA 75.5% Ithaca, NY 69.3% Jacksonville, NC 70.9% Dalton, GA 68.2% Madera, CA 68.4% Lawrence, KS 63.2% Yakima, WA 68.3% Bloomington, IN 63.1% El Centro, CA 67.6% Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA 62.3% Watertown-Fort Drum, NY 66.6% Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 61.6% Pottsville, PA 66.4% Auburn-Opelika, AL 61.1% Yuma, AZ 65.4% College Station-Bryan, TX 61.1% Salinas, CA 65.1% Ann Arbor, MI 61.1% Rochester, MN 64.9% Elkhart-Goshen, IN 60.6% Cheyenne, WY 64.4% Boulder, CO 59.7% Lawton, OK 64.2% State College, PA 59.5% Springfield, IL 64.0% Bozeman, MT 59.3% Wenatchee, WA 63.3% Muncie, IN 58.6% Visalia, CA 63.3% Richmond-Berea, KY 58.5%
Metros Under 100K Population Highest Share of Highest Share of MSA Name MSA Name Essential Workers Non-Essential Workers Susanville, CA 77.9% Los Alamos, NM 81.8% Othello, WA 77.8% Pullman, WA 68.1% Hinesville, GA 77.4% Oxford, MS 66.1% Dumas, TX 77.2% Columbus, IN 65.5% Mountain Home, ID 74.9% Rexburg, ID 65.3% Hope, AR 74.7% Vermillion, SD 64.8% Guymon, OK 74.6% Sturgis, MI 64.7% Pecos, TX 74.4% Calhoun, GA 63.5% Hereford, TX 74.2% Kokomo, IN 63.1% Fort Leonard Wood, MO 73.6% Moscow, ID 62.9% Worthington, MN 73.0% Laramie, WY 62.6% Burley, ID 70.8% Warsaw, IN 62.5% Grants, NM 70.6% Boone, NC 62.0% Fort Morgan, CO 70.6% Stillwater, OK 62.0% Huron, SD 70.4% Starkville, MS 61.4%
Example 1: Springfield, MO “Main Street”
Essential Non-Essential
Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores
Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores
Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores
Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores
Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores
Example 2: Construction in Grand Rapids
Essential Non-Essential
Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA
Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA
Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA
Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA
Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA
Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA
Pivoting to Resilient, In-Demand Skills
Pivoting to Resilient, In-Demand Skills ● It won’t be ‘business-as-usual’ as we start to re-open the economy. ● Strict guidelines and caution citizens will likely result in a staggered recovery. ○ High risk occupations ○ Large group settings ● What was in-demand last week could be out of style next week.
High Risk Occupations ● Based on data from US Department of Labor / O*NET. ● Occupations that require working in close physical proximity to others. ● Includes both essential and non-essential roles. https://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/result/4.C.2.a.3
Large Group Settings Total bummer but not a game-changer: ● Arts & Entertainment (sports, concerts, movies). ● Recreation & Tourism (cruises, resorts, casinos). ● Community Activities (festivals, farmer’s markets) Very disruptive to everyday life: ● Schools & Childcare Centers
Not Just In-Demand. Resilient. ● The widely used phrase ‘rapidly changing economy’ took on an entirely new meaning last month. ● Labor supply-demand is a function of the economy -- ergo it can change just as fast. ● Resilience is the ability to withstand, to recover quickly, to spring back. ● A workforce equipped with resilient skills is more: ○ Agile ○ Adaptive ○ ...Resilient
Not Just In-Demand. Resilient. Emsi analytics for the Springfield, MO MSA (based on job postings from 3/1/20 to 4/15/20)
Covid-19 Resources Page https://www.economicmodeling.com/covid-19-resources/
Questions?
Contact us! Drew Repp John Hawkins drew.repp@economicmodeling.com jhawkins@economicmodeling.com
Thank you and stay healthy.
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