Understanding in Crossing Temporal and Spatial Scales: Three - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Advanced Systems Understanding in Crossing Temporal and Spatial Scales: Three Examples M. JONAS on behalf of IIASA’s ASA Program IIASA, Austria; 10 October 2016 M. Jonas 30 April 2015 – 1

The three examples Example 1: GHG + T  2050 target Example 2: CO 2 + T + biodiversity  two PBs Example 3: GHG + T  persistence M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 2

Example 1 1. To bring a global long-term emissions-temperature- uncertainty issue (2 º C-by-2050) to the here and now  to emission targets on the near-term scale  to emission targets on the national scale 2. To put uncertainties that are associated with accounting emissions for compliance purposes into a wider quantitative context M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 3

Example 1 ? ere ere 0 2050 2100 M. Jonas et al. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/archive/2011/CarbonBudget_2011.ppt 10 October 2016 – 4

Example 1 Meinshausen et al. (2009: Fig. 2) M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 5

Example 1 42 25 234 10 M. Jonas et al. Meinshausen et al. (2009: Fig. 3) 10 October 2016 – 6

Example 1 Diagnostic Prognostic Additional undershooting Combined Time 2050 M. Jonas et al. Massari Coelho et al. (2012: Fig. 10) 10 October 2016 – 7

Example 1 M. Jonas et al. Jonas &Nilsson (2007: Fig. 9); modified 10 October 2016 – 8

Example 1 Jonas & Żebrowski (2016: Fig. 2b) M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 9

Example 2 Consider a simplified terrestrial carbon – plant biodiversity (C-B) system M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 10

Example 2 M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 11

Example 2 Important take-home messages: Addressing sustainability  requires a stock-based view! Framework needed  to facilitate decision making from the planetary to the local level, and vice versa! Here: The LUC system is described in terms of PBs, here C and B; but if they were to be met globally, they would need to be monitored and tracked across scales from local to global (assuming that socio-ecological policies are implemented by nations, organizations, and individuals) An important modeling component is not in place  with the focus on interrelations of key system parameters (B, C, N, P, water, etc.) and how their characteristics (feedbacks, thresholds, critical transitions, etc.) emerge at the planetary scale! M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 12

Example 3 An easy-to-apply metric or indicator is needed that informs non-experts about the time in the future at which a prognostic scenario ceases to be (for whatever reasons) in accordance with the system’s past . This indicator should be applicable in treating a system / model coherently (from beginning to end)! 2050 2014 Past Future M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 13

Example 3 Via persistence (memory) to explainable outreach: M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 14

Example 3 Important take-home messages: Linking past and future  requires understanding the persistence of a system! As above while accounting for the human impact  requires understanding the system’s persistence at the right resolution M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 15

References M. Jonas et al. 10 October 2016 – 16