Trees and Water: Exploring Future Scenarios Trees and Water: Exploring Future Scenarios for the San Jose Watershed under Climate Change Change H A R R Y N E LS O N U N I VE R S I T Y O F BR I T I S H CO L U M BI A U N I VE R S I T Y O F BR I T I S H CO L U M BI A A D V I S O R Y G R O U P P R E S E N T A T I O N W I L L I A M S L A K E , U B C n1 2 3 M A R C H , 2 0 12 RAC San Jose Watershed Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012
Slide 1 n1 need to update n.hotte, 22/02/2012
Introduction NRCan Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC) British Columbia RAC (BC RAC) Program Preparing for Climate Program, Preparing for Climate Change: Securing B.C.’s Water Future One of 21 projects across the province Photo credit: Cathy Koot (2010) Photo credit: Cathy Koot (2010) RAC San Jose Watershed Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012
Advancing Adaptation g p Recognize that we’ve always been adapting Difference in that we are Difference in that we are anticipating possible futures and being proactive In order to do this we need to understand local impacts We can utilize what we do We can utilize what we do know to do this RAC San Jose Watershed Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012
Issues affecting the Watershed g Three interacting phenomena are occurring that will have cumulative impacts on forest resources and the water supply: Mountain pine beetle 1. Change in fire regim es 2. Clim ate change 3. RAC San Jose Watershed Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012
Project Goals Project climate change impacts on services and values j g p from forest resources. Evaluate potential effects of forest management strategies at the watershed level and how they could address water concerns. Facilitate discussions among decision makers re: watershed values, vulnerabilities, and management options. i Support planning within a long-term sustainability strategy. t t RAC San Jose Watershed Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012
Future Clim ate Scenarios How do these projections translate into forest and water im pacts? water im pacts? 30% Tem perature 7.0 in Seasonal 20% itation (%) 6.0 Changes in 10% 5.0 temperature and 0% 4.0 º C) precipitation p p 2020s 2020s 2020s Change in T -10% 10% (º Change i Precipi 3.0 under low 2050s 2050s -20% 2.0 climate change. 2080s 2080s -30% 1.0 -40% 0.0 7.0 30% perature Seasonal 20% 6.0 ion (%) Changes in 10% 5.0 temperature and p Change in Tem p 0% 0% 4 0 4.0 Change in S Precipitati precipitation (º C) 2020s 2020s 3.0 -10% under high 2050s 2050s -20% 2.0 climate change. 2080s -30% 1.0 2080s -40% 0.0 RAC San Jose Watershed
The Role of Modelling It allows us to “fast forward” through time and g simulate under different scenarios future outcomes 2050 2009 Modelling suite A.K.A. Our “tim e m achine” RAC San Jose Watershed Harry Nelson 20 March, 2012
Workshop Goals Report out on results p Discuss implications Identify next steps y p RAC San Jose Watershed Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012
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