Transportation Revenue Trends: The Fuel Tax presented to presented by Central Florida Alison Stettner, MPO Alliance FDOT Meeting Director, Office of Policy Planning Office of Policy Planning January 10, 2020 Office of Policy Planning
TODAY’S OBJECTIVE Overview of transportation funding in Florida Future Funding Trends Help get the message out 2 Office of Policy Planning
FY 18/19 Receipts* Interest Bond Proceeds $10.5 ($ in Millions) $393.1 0.1% 5.2% State Fuel Taxes $2,413.7 31.7% Miscellaneous Revenue $191.3 2.5% Reimbursements $563.1 7.4% Aviation Fuel Tax $40.0 Documentary Stamps 0.5% $315.8 4.1% Rental Car Surcharge Federal Fuel Taxes $142.4 $2,330.6 1.9% 30.6% Motor Vehicle Fees *This chart does not include approximately $1.4 billion in Constitutional, County, $1,212.0 3 Municipal, and Local Option fuel taxes which are distributed directly to local governments nor $1.3 billion in Toll Revenue receipts. 15.9% Office of Policy Planning
2020 FUEL TAX RATES Federal Gas 18.4 cents/Gal. Local Option 1-6 cents/Gal. State Sales 7.9 cents/Gal. Federal Diesel Added 6 cents/Gal. SCETS 14.3 cents/Gal. Local Option 1-5 cents/Gal. Constitutional 2 cents/Gal. Ninth-Cent 1 cent/Gal. County 1 cent/Gal. Mnicipal 1 cent/Gal. CENTS PER GALLON 6.0¢ 6.0¢ 6.0¢ 7.9¢ 7.9¢ 7.9¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢ 2¢ 2¢ 2¢ 18.4¢ 18.4¢ 18.4¢ 5¢ 5¢ 5¢ 14.3¢ 14.3¢ 14.3¢ 6¢ 6¢ 6¢ FEDERAL STATE LOCAL Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research 4 Office of Policy Planning
Locally Imposed Fuel Taxes Fuel Tax Rates as of January 1, 2020 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research Office of Policy Planning
6 $10,000 $12,000 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $0 $1,641.4 $2,752.6 $3,050.0 $3,047.8 FDOT Annual Appropriation History $2,742.5 $3,074.3 $3,111.7 $3,182.5 $3,471.2 $3,801.4 $4,497.3 $4,380.6 $6,094.1 $5,234.4 $6,263.9 $6,492.8 $8,129.5 $9,132.1 $8,439.8 $8,201.1 $6,548.3 $6,928.8 $7,866.1 $8,168.3 $9,422.0 $10,117.8 $10,034.2 $10,730.0 $10,822.0 $10,830.1 Office of Policy Planning $10,795.1
7 10,000 12,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 FY90-91 FY 91-92 FY 92-93 FY 93-94 FY 94-95 FY 95-96 FY 96-97 FY 97-98 FY 98-99 FY 99-00 FY 00-01 FY 01-02 FY 02-03 Motor Fuel FY 03-04 FY 04-05 FY 05-06 FY 06-07 FY 07-08 FY 08-09 Diesel Fuel FY 09-10 FY 10-11 FY 11-12 FY 12-13 FY 13-14 FY 14-15 FY 15-16 FY 16-17 FY 17-18 FY 18-19 FY 19-20 Forecast FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 Office of Policy Planning FY 24-25 FY 25-26 FY 26-27 FY 27-28
8 % Change -10 10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 FY 96-97 FY 97-98 FY 98-99 FY 99-00 FY 00-01 FY 01-02 FY 02-03 FY 03-04 FY 04-05 FY 05-06 FY 06-07 FY 07-08 Total Highway Fuels FY 08-09 FY 09-10 FY 10-11 FY 11-12 FY 12-13 FY 13-14 FY 14-15 FY 15-16 FY 16-17 FY 17-18 FY 18-19 FY 19-20 FY 20-21 Forecast FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 Office of Policy Planning FY 24-25 FY 25-26 FY 26-27 FY 27-28
What Sets Florida Apart? State Fuel Tax Indexed to CPI Extensive Tolling Systems Maximum Use of Innovative Financing Population Growth Record Tourism 9 Office of Policy Planning
Average Fuel Efficiency Since 1980 fuel Fuel efficiency of efficiency of new cars national fleet has increased 55% increased 50% 10 Office of Policy Planning
650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 DVMT Office of Policy Planning
AV/EV Impacts of Market Share in Florida AV market In terms of vehicle penetration rate of fleet penetration, AVs 35% of vehicles by will be approximately 2035 (percent of new 43% of total vehicle vehicles on the road) stock in 2045 Most aggressive Vehicle stock of forecast predicts EV electric vehicles share of market will expected to be 3.8 be 35% in 2040 million in 2048 12 Office of Policy Planning
AV/EV Impacts to Overall VMT Estimated that AVs will add 47.5 billion additional annual VMTs over baseline by 2048. • Assumption is that all AVs in 2048 will be EVs • Assumption that 30% of total VMT in 2048 will be eVMT (100.8 billion miles) 13 Office of Policy Planning
AV/EV Impacts to Fuel Tax Revenue in Florida Through FY 47/48 cumulative impact of increased AV/AFV market penetration will result in $18.3 billion in fuel tax revenue losses. By FY 47/48 annual losses will be 26% of projected revenue. 14 Office of Policy Planning
QUESTIONS? Contact Information: Mark Reichert 850-414-4901 mark.reichert@dot.state.fl.us Office of Policy Planning
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