Transportation in a changing world Fewer trips, different trips, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transportation in a changing world Fewer trips, different trips, alone May 27, 2020 Steve Koczela President, The MassINC Polling Group Made possible thanks to support from The Barr Foundation. info@massincpolling.com MassINCPolling.com @MassINCPolling 11 Beacon St Ste 500 | Boston, MA 02108 | Phone: (617) 224-1647

About the poll • Representative statewide poll of 1,478 Massachusetts residents. • The survey was conducted online May 5-13, 2020. • The data was weighted to known and estimated population parameters by age, gender, race, education, geography, and party • This project was made possible thanks to support from The Barr Foundation. 2

No going back to “normal” 3

Transportation and reopening • Residents anticipate fewer trips overall, more of them taken using solo-travel modes. • Working from home has taken hold and could lessen the load of individual trips. But equity issues loom. • Residents, including pre-COVID transit riders, say they will drive and walk more, take transit less. • Some precautions on transit vehicles could increase comfort levels on transit. 4

Fewer trips overall • Most residents anticipate the same number, or fewer trips than before. If this holds, it means fewer overall trips. More residents say they will take the same or fewer trips than in the past % who expect to take more trips or fewer trips than before 44% 41% 10% 5% More trips than before Fewer trips than About the same Unsure the outbreak before the outbreak number of trip as before the outbreak Thinking ahead to getting around when Massachusetts reopens after the worst of the outbreak, do you expect that you will be making… 5

Major mode shift coming? • Walking and driving look set to rise, while transit and shared ride services look likely to drop. Individual transportation options look likely to grow in the short term % who expect to use each mode more or less once the worst passes Less More Same Walk 7% 38% 49% Drive alone in your own car 10% 28% 55% Ride a bicycle 18% 19% 49% Take a taxi, Uber or Lyft 33% 8% 48% Ride in carpool or vanpool 31% 7% 48% Ride a bus 36% 6% 47% Ride the MBTA subway 35% 6% 47% Ride the MBTA commuter rail 33% 6% 46% Q: Thinking ahead to when Massachusetts reopens after the worst of the outbreak, do you expect you will do each of the following more, less or about the same amount as you did 6 before the outbreak?

Change by actual users • Net mode shift (% use more - % use less) shows how users say they will switch between modes. Net mode shift shows more walking, driving along, less group transport Net mode shift (% use more – % use less), broken down by past mode users Past users of each mode Drive Drive w MBTA Public Com OVERALL Alone others Subway Bus Rail Bike Walk Walk 31% 31% 36% 47% 45% 43% 45% 42% Drive alone in your own car 19% 21% 21% 24% 25% 33% 20% 21% Ride a bicycle 2% 0% 9% 6% 13% 10% 52% 10% (% more - % less) Net mode shift Ride in a carpool or vanpool -24% -29% -21% -34% -25% -23% -20% -27% Take a taxi, Uber or Lyft -25% -30% -25% -28% -28% -19% -29% -27% Ride a corporate shuttle bus -26% -28% -26% -26% -21% -24% -28% -25% Ride the MBTA commuter -28% -30% -24% -28% -27% -27% -33% -28% rail Ride the MBTA subway -29% -32% -28% -34% -29% -21% -25% -30% Ride a public bus -30% -33% -32% -40% -31% -24% -27% -32% Q: Thinking ahead to when Massachusetts reopens after the worst of the outbreak, do you expect you will do each of the following more, less or about the same amount as you did 7 before the outbreak?

Will young people walk, ride or drive? • Young people (heaviest transit users) are set to show a major increase in driving. They are also the most open to biking, if the option is available. Net mode shift shows young people headed more for cars Net mode shift (% use more - % use less), broken down by past mode usage Demographic groups Overall 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ (% more - % less) Walk 31% 33% 30% 33% 27% Net mode shift Drive alone in your own car 19% 30% 23% 17% 6% Ride a bicycle 2% 9% 4% 4% -10% Q: Thinking ahead to when Massachusetts reopens after the worst of the outbreak, do you expect you will do each of the following more, less or about the same amount as you did 8 before the outbreak? Displaying response rider of any transit mode pre-COVID (N=495).

Walking? Boston residents are ready • Boston residents are most ready to walk more places. • Which individual mode grows the most will determine what our region’s future looks like. Net mode shift shows Boston residents open to walking more as pandemic passes Net mode shift (% use more - % use less), broken down by past mode usage Demographic groups Outer Inner Overall Western Central S. East Suburbs Suburbs Boston (% more - % less) Walk 31% 22% 31% 31% 28% 33% 44% Net mode shift Drive alone in your own 19% 3% 25% 16% 20% 23% 21% car Ride a bicycle 2% -3% 6% 0% 3% 0% -1% Q: Thinking ahead to when Massachusetts reopens after the worst of the outbreak, do you expect you will do each of the following more, less or about the same amount as you did 9 before the outbreak? Displaying response rider of any transit mode pre-COVID (N=495).

When people want to ride transit • Residents express more comfort at the idea of riding transit at less busy times. More residents are comfortable riding transit at off peak times % who say they would be comfortable riding transit at peak vs off peak times 38% Peak Off peak 31% 29% 27% 22% 16% 12% 10% 8% 8% Very Somewhat Not too Not comfortable Unsure comfortable comfortable comfortable at all Q: Thinking ahead to after the worst of the Q: Thinking ahead to after the worst of the outbreak, how comfortable would you be riding outbreak, how comfortable would you be public transportation during peak times, like riding public transportation during off-peak 10 the morning and evening rush hours. times, like mid-day, at night or on weekends

Precautions increase comfort Majorities say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with riding transit if • certain precautions were enacted. Taking precautions would make residents more comfortable on transit % who say they would feel comfortable riding transit if specific precautions were taken Hands-free sanitizer dispensers 40% 34% Sanitize vehicles / stations 36% 38% Limit passengers on vehicles / platforms 35% 37% Real-time crowding info 30% 37% Require staff / riders masks 28% 38% Scan all passengers for fever 27% 34% Very comfortable Somewhat comfortable Q: How comfortable would you be riding public transportation after the worst of the outbreak if the MBTA or the 11 Regional Transit Authority in your area took each of the following steps?

Frequent riders show less concern Frequent riders express more comfort with returning to transit than occasional riders % of riders who say they will feel very / somewhat • Returning to transit is a comfortable riding transit very uncertain prospect At peak times 45% for many people. 40% 24% 15% • However, the most frequent riders are also Most frequent Moderate rider Occasional Non-transit rider rider user most likely to say they will At off peak times feel comfortable with the 67% 56% idea. 49% 29% Most frequent Moderate rider Occasional Non-transit rider rider user Q: Thinking ahead to after the worst of the outbreak, how comfortable would you be riding 12 public transportation during…

No going back to the status quo By a wide margin, residents think we need “big changes” to transportation • coming out of the coronavirus crisis. These gaps persist across regions of the state but are widest in the Greater • Boston region. Residents would like to see changes to the transportation system % who say we should _______ after the coronavirus crisis Outer Inner Overall Western Central S. East Suburbs Suburbs Boston Go back to the system we had 21% 30% 17% 25% 18% 18% 23% Make big changes to the 59% 41% 54% 54% 63% 70% 64% system Unsure 19% 29% 29% 20% 18% 11% 13% Q: Thinking about how residents will get around as Massachusetts reopens after the current crisis, which is closer to your point of view? 13

But what kind of change? • Bulk of comments concerned public transit: – 25% want social distancing, include running more service – 24% want cleaning / disinfecting / sanitation – 13% want to improve / update / upgrade transit – 11% want to improve transit reliability / efficiency “People need public transportation. “Keep office workers at home to Prior to Covid-19 it was unreliable, reduce crowds on train. Increase dirty and crowded. We need to do MBTA reliability and frequency .” much better.” “We need to practice social distancing on mass transit; i.e., fewer passengers per bus or train car. This will require more buses and trains.” ASKED OF THE 59% WHO THINK WE NEED TO MAKE BIG CHANGES Q: In a few words, what sort of changes do you think we need to make to transportation in 14 Massachusetts coming out of the crisis?