Towards an Integrated Air Quality Climate Modelling System Bram - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Towards an Integrated Air Quality – Climate Modelling System Bram Bregman TNO, The Netherlands

Do we need climate change in AQ modelling? ● Although global climate change is the main driver, changes on regional scales cannot be covered by GCMs ● In many regions regional climate change differs significantly from meteorological variability ● climate change cannot be simulated by looking at meteorlogical variables seperately ● to judge if climate change is relevant for AQ policy, the least step needed is off-line coupling with RCMs ● Use of RCM ensembles is necessary ● Regional emission inventories are important ● Ideally one uses interactive coupling: expensive! PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

How to achieve regional AQ scenario’s? IPCC Scenario’s GCMs 1960 – 1990 2030 – 2070 RCM RCM future Ensembles scenario’s 1960 - 1990 Meteorological - AQ Variables Regional AQ Regional AQ Future scenario’s PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Regional climate scenario’s Regional climate scenario’s (Lenderink et al., J. of Clim., 2007) PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Regional climate ensembles and AQ modeling resolution KNMI’06 Climate scenario’s 6x6 km 100x100 km AQ AQ Global Regional AQ-Climate Off-line AQ-Climate On-line PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Coupling to urban scales ● Apply wind tunnel experiments and CFD modelling to develop/improve fast hourly street canyon models ● Integration of those models in URBIS on urban scale: street canyons, point sources, inland shipping, … ● Combine URBIS with regional AQ models, but also to integrated assessment models for noice, odour, and risk analysis PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

NO x emission inventories down to ~ 6 x 6 km PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Black Carbon in LOTOS-EUROS 12 x 12 km 6 x 6 km 25 x 25 km PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

LOTOS-EUROS coupled to NWP and RCM meteorology Finokalia 2002 ECMWF FUB RACMO PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

AQ modelling coupled with NWP and RCM meteorology Number of days ozone exceeding 120 µg/m3 High-Resolution AQ model Lotos-Euros Meteo data: ECMWF – FUB – RACMO Regional Climate Model PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Challenges ● nesting with local scale turbulent/plume modelling: ‘real’ AQ issues occur at street level ● how to create a useful interface with integrated assessments ● Interactively coupled RCM – AQ model ensembles PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Coupling AQ modelling - regional climate ensembles RCM ensembles Urban modelling 1960 – 1990 time slices Future AQ Regional AQ model Scenario’s downscaling RCM ensembles Future emission 2030 – 2070 time slices inventories PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Air Quality and Climate Change in relation to policy issues PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005

Air quality – climate change modelling structure PMC Infrastructuur 8 maart 2005