Tools for Quantifying Health Impacts from Global Air Pollution - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tools for Quantifying Health Impacts from Global Air Pollution Scenarios Amy Lamson U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Presented at TF HTAP workshop: Assessing the Impacts of Future Global Air Pollution Scenarios Potsdam, Germany February 18, 2016

2 Overview of Presentation • BenMAP-CE ▫ Core program ▫ Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Rollback Module ▫ Using data from GBD study in core program ▫ What’s next? • LEAP – Integrated Benefits Calculator (IBC) ▫ LEAP toolkit ▫ What’s next? • Additional global health impact assessment tools

3 S ummary of Applications • TIER 1 – No External Data Required ▫ LEAP-IBC ▫ BenMAP-CE’s GBD Rollback Module ▫ BenMAP-CE with GBD data • TIER 2 – Existing Emissions Data ▫ Modify LEAP-IBC with their own data • TIER 3 – Air Quality Modeling or Monitoring Data ▫ Full health and economic benefit analytic capability in BenMAP-CE

4 • The “environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program--Community Edition” • The principal tool EPA uses to quantify the benefits of reducing criteria air pollutants • An open-source PC-based and graphic user interface-driven software program • Uses health impact functions to Download program at estimate the incidence and http:/ / www2.epa.gov/ benmap economic value of adverse health outcomes Questions: benmap@epa.gov • Training available

5 A Growing Number of BenMAP-CE Users and Developers in the U.S . and Globally 2 Chinese Universities, 3 Consulting Firm s 20 Nations & 15 U.S. States and 1 Non-Governm ental Organization

6 BenMAP-CE Approach ∆Y = Y o (1-e – ß ∆PM ) * Pop Pollutant change ( ∆PM ) Population (Pop) Baseline incidence (Y o ) Health impact (∆ Y) Effect estimate (ß) Avoided Deaths per Y ear

7 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Rollback Module • Allows users to select a country, region, or group of countries and see the impact of lowering PM 2.5 emissions using data from the 2010 GBD study. • Quantifies the number of avoided deaths in the country or region selected, as well as the PM 2.5 concentrations in the analysis.

8 Data from 2010 GBD Proj ect in BenMAP-CE • Globally modeled PM 2.5 and ozone concentrations for 2005 (~10km by 10km resolution) ▫ Applied remote sensing, photochemical modeling and monitoring data from Brauer et al. (2012) • Integrated exposure-response function for IHD, stroke, COPD, and lung cancer From : Exposure Assessm ent for Estim ation of the Global ▫ BenMAP-CE has parametrized Burden of Disease Attributable to Outdoor Air Pollution Michael Brauer, Markus Amann, Rick T. Burnett, Aaron Cohen, versions derived from Burnett et al. Frank Dentener, Majid Ezzati, Sarah B. Henderson, Michal Krzyzanowski, Randall V. Martin, Rita Van Dingenen, Aaron van (2014) Donkelaar, and George D. Thurston. Environm ental Science & Technology 20 12 46 (2), 652-660 • Global population for 2005 (10km by 10km resolution) from CESIN • Country-specific mortality rates from WHO

9 What’s Next for BenMAP-CE? • Report-ready graphics • Built-in life table model • Share BenMAP-CE datasets in the cloud • Multi-pollutant/ multi-stressor • City-specific effect estimates • Incorporating detailed ZIP-level health data in the U.S. • Chronic cost of illness estimates • Online user forum • 2016 trainings (US: DC, Miami, Atlanta; BAQ conference in Korea, ISEE conference in Rome) Key U.S. EPA contact = Neal Fann

10 LEAP - Integrated Benefits Calculator (IBC) • Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) developed by Stockholm Environment Institute over last 25 years, and supported by collaboration with US government • Emissions and scenarios module ▫ Already widely used in developing countries ▫ Countries with limited existing data can develop historical emission inventories, baseline and mitigation scenarios or can also modify the tool with their own data, where available • Simplified benefits estimation module ▫ Estimates concentrations of particle pollution and ozone using a global air quality model (GEOS-Chem Adjoint) ▫ Includes calculations to determine impacts on health, crops, and climate ▫ Requires limited user inputs - default data available for all parameters http:/ / sei-us.org/ software/ leap

11 LEAP-IBC Approach Country-scale Linear response Change (∆) in emissions air quality response coefficients ∆ response x = ∆ emissions from LEAP-SLCP from GEOS-Chem Adjoint • Uses concentration-response functions for PM- and ozone-related mortality impacts and for ozone-related crop impacts • Default data on emissions for 10 conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases, population data and projections, crop yield, and concentration- response functions • Beta version of LEAP-IBC tool deployed for original four countries – Bangladesh, Colombia, Ghana, and Mexico – and analysis for the Latin America-Caribbean Regional Assessment

12 What’s Next for LEAP-IBC? • Finish modeling for remaining countries • Application of LEAP-IBC to 4-6 additional countries • Develop and integrate indoor air module for LEAP- IBC Key U.S. EPA contact = Am anda Curry Brown

13 Additional Global Health Impact Assessment Tools Air BenMAP- LEAP- TM5- AIRQ2.2 EBD GMAPS IOMLIFET SIM-Air Counts CE IBC FASST Spatial resolution Regional X X X X X X National X X X X X X X City-level X X X X X X X Any grid X X X X Pollutants PM 2.5 X X X X X X X X PM 10 X X X X X Ozone X X X X X NO 2 X X X SO 2 X X X CO X Health outcom e Mortality X X X X X X X X X DALY / YLL X X X X X X Morbidity X X X X X Modified from: Anenberg, S. C., Belova, A., Brandt, J., et al. (2015). Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools. Risk Analysis . DOI: 10.1111/ risa.12540.

14 Additional Global Health Impact Assessment Tools (Cont.) Air BenMAP LEAP SIM- TM5- AIRQ2.2 EBD GMAPS IOMLIFET Counts -CE -IBC Air FASST PM 2.5 Concentration-Response Relationship User-defined X X X X ACS X X X X X X X X GBD IER X X X Other X X Population Data Source User-defined X X X X United Nations X X CIESIN X X X X X Other X Baseline Incidence Data Source User-defined X X X WHO X X X X X Other X X Modified from: Anenberg, S. C., Belova, A., Brandt, J., et al. (2015). Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools. Risk Analysis . DOI: 10.1111/ risa.12540.

15 Contact Information Amy Lamson U.S. EPA – Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Risk and Benefits Group Lamson.amy@epa.gov