Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the På Flukt fra realiteterne? Hvordan utformes fremtidens flygtningepolitikk? -o0o- Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen Research Director Raoul Wallenberg Institute
ARRIVALS TO EUROPE DRAMATICALLY INCREASING Total No of asylum-seekers in the EU, 1998-2015 Use ‘Decrease / Increase 1 200 000 indent’ in order to use the 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Kilde: Eurostat
Uneven distribution of arrivals among Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the Member States
REFLECTS ARRIVAL ROUTES… Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the
BUT ALSO THE FACT THAT SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE CLEARLY MORE POPULAR THAN OTHERS … Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the Kilde: Eurostat
STILL, THE EUROPEAN NUMBERS ARE Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the NOTHING COMPARED TO THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN …
THE EU-TURKEY REFUGEE DEAL • The legal challenge: Can Turkey really be defined as a safe third country? • The political challenge: Will other Member States Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the commit to the promised resettlement quotas, and what happens when the quota is exceeded? • The logistical challenge: What happens when the Turkey currently the largest routes change? refugee-hosting country in the world:
THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE DUBLIN SYSTEM New proposals tabled by the Commission 6 April 2016: DUBLIN REGULATION NET TRANSFERS (2008-2013) Switzerland 14425 Germany 9918 - Introducing a ” corrective Sweden 7887 Norway 4289 mechanism ” or a completely new Netherlands 3257 Austria 3004 distribution key United Kingdom 2349 Belgium 2033 Luxembourg 483 - Amending the Eurodac database to Ireland 377 Iceland 63 allow for cross-referencing and Liechtenstein 21 Finland 0 broader usage Croatia 6 Estonia 21 - Introducing a single common Cyprus 82 Bulgaria 133 Portugal 149 European asylum procedure with e.g. Latvia 169 Slovenia 212 common list of STCs Czech Republic 220 Lithuania 451 - Making certain rights dependent on Romania 734 Slovakia 830 stay in designated country to France 1033 Greece 1149 discourage secondary movement Malta 1642 Spain 2807 Hungary 2995 - Reforming EASO’s mandate to Poland 5357 Italy 10498 possibly take on centralised asylum Source: Eurostat processing
THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME… No. 1: ”See no evil, hear no evil ” - Keep pushing more advanced border control and deals with Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the third countries to block acces to asylum - Engage in ’ beggar-thy-neighbour ’ policies to push asylum-seekers onto other countries Why it won’t work: A. So far border control has not been able to stop arrivals in Europe, only push refugees towards more dangerous routes and fuel the human smuggling industry B. Deterrence and ’ ugly duckling ’ policies creates a downward spiral to the detriment of both refugees and the respective governments. The only way to win this game is not to play it at all…
THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME… No. 2: Outsource the responsibility - Pay or pressure someone else to take on the responsibility! - Hard and soft models: examples include Libya, Australia, Turkey Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the Why it won’t work: A. Sovereignty works both ways: no guarantee that these countries will respect human rights, and many clearly do not neither the intention nor the capacity B. Establishing safe areas or special EU asylum processing campsis expensive and will entail complex legal commitments C. Politically unrealistic to get countries already hosting the vast majority of The World’s refugees to take on Europe’s caseload as well. C. Not necessarily cost-effective: Region of origin countries know that they hold the power and don’t sell themselves cheap.
THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME… No. 3: Establish a new legal framework - The Refugee Convention is outdated, too demanding and inflexible - Negotiate a new Convention Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the Why it won’t work: A. In fact, the Refugee Convention is probably the most politically sensitive human rights instruments ever concluded B. 86% of the world’s displaced persons reside in developing countries – The Refugee Convention is a tool to keep these countries committed and it is hard to imagine them signing on to a new instrument without much more burden-sharing C. Are the problems of distribution and burden-sharing something that is best dealt with in legal terms?
THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME… No. 4: The liberals ’ wet dream: A fair and equitable global refugee system - Devise a global (or European) distribution key based on some combination of GNP, population size, previous number of arrivals, etc. Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the - Shift asylum processing from individual states to a supranational authority Why it won’t work: A. Asylum inherently connected to proximity – states are unlikely to sign a ’blank checque ’ to protect refugees B. Confidence in international governance is at a historic low – states are unlikely to cede even more sovereignty on such a political issue C. Refugees are not just pieces to be moved around the chess board – if effective protection and access to livelihoods are not guaranteed, we will continue to see large-scale secondary movements
LEARNING FROM OUR MISTAKES: FIVE TENETS OF A REFORM TO THE GLOBAL REFUGEE REGIME THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY WORK To be sustainable, any reform of the current refugee regime must Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the A) be holistic and consider the legal, political and economic perspectives rather than try to make a quick-fix B) be inclusive and global ; a reform proposal must include all states, not just the privileged and wealthy few C) retain a concept of refuge that remains politically resonant and time-limited D) build on a notion of common but differentiated responsibility E) Move beyond ’container politics ’ and dare to think innovatively and broader to solve the inherent dilemmas in regard to refugee policy
International refugee law and the problem of adjudication EU-Domstolen Luxembourg Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the Den Europæiske Menneskerettighedsdomstol Strasbourg
THE EUROPEAN ASYLUM DILEMMA • Use ‘Decrease / Increase Geopolitical imbalances and indent’ in order to use the beggar-thy-neighbour politics
ISSUES UNDER INTERNATIONAL REFUGEE AND HUMAN RIGHTS LAW Examples of human rights challenges in select Member States Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the and EU countries: • Lacking access to asylum (physical and legal) • Mandatory detention, including children • Fines and detention of asylum-seekers irregularly crossing borders • Lacking reception facilities • Cut-downs on social provisions • Limits to family reunification
ROOT CAUSES – DE UNDERLIGGENDE ÅRSAGER TIL FORDRIVELSE Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the
DET INTERNATIONALE SYSTEMS FORSØG PÅ AT GIVE SVAR I 2016 • London donorkonferencen d. 4/2 Use ‘Decrease / Increase indent’ in order to use the • Solutions Alliance Roundtable i Bruxelles d. 9-10/2 • UNHCR’s fonference om genbosættelsed. 30/3 • Det humanitære Verdenstopmøde d. 23-34/5 • Højniveaumøde i FN’s Generalforsamling om adressering af store flygtninge- og migrantbevægelser d. 19/9
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