The Suburban Chicago Residential Market -- An Overview -- Presented by G. Tracy Cross President, Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc. September 20, 2012
New Home Sales U.S. (1) Chicago 2004 1,203,000 31,843 Year-Over-Year +10.6% +13.1% 2005 1,283,000 33,287 Year-Over-Year +6.7% +4.5% 2006 1,052,000 25,105 Year-Over-Year -18.0% -24.6% 2007 776,000 15,377 Year-Over-Year -26.2% -38.7% 2008 485,000 6,361 Year-Over-Year -37.5% -58.6% 2009 374,000 3,552 Year-Over-Year -22.9% -44.2% 2010 322,000 3,101 Year-Over-Year -14.1% -12.7% Variance From 2005 -74.9% -90.7% 2011 305,000 2,932 Year-Over-Year -5.3% -5.4% Variance From 2005 -76.2% -91.2% 2012 358,000 (2) 3,196 Year-Over-Year +17.3% +9.0% Variance From 2005 -72.1% -90.4% (1) Single family home sales. (2) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Trends in Production New Home Sales by Product Type Total Sales (SAAR) 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1Q94 1Q95 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 Total Single Family Townhome/Condominium Note: DeKalb County, IL and Kenosha County, WI included starting 2nd Quarter 2003. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
New Home Sales Chicago Region -- Suburban Area -- Single Townhome/ Year Total Family Condominium 1993 15,815 8,925 6,890 1994 15,161 8,424 6,737 1995 16,919 9,329 7,590 1996 17,027 9,822 7,205 1997 17,135 9,807 7,328 1998 18,840 11,069 7,771 1999 19,742 11,556 8,186 2000 20,132 11,727 8,405 2001 22,717 12,820 9,897 2002 23,185 13,995 9,190 2003 24,861 14,281 10,580 2004 25,699 14,208 11,491 2005 25,761 14,374 11,387 2006 19,354 10,392 8,962 2007 11,302 5,873 5,429 2008 4,880 2,655 2,225 2009 2,913 1,464 1,449 2010 2,508 1,219 1,289 2011 2,326 1,203 1,123 2012 (1) 2,667 1,622 1,045 (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
New Home Sales Chicago Region -- Suburban Area -- Total Sales 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 (1) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Single Family Townhome/Condominium (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
The Chicago Region’s 17 Representative Submarkets Kenosha County, WI Arlington Heights/ Palatine/Wheeling Northern Lake County McHenry Schaumburg/ County Hoffman Estates/ South Central Streamwood/Elk Grove Village Lake County North Northern Shore Fox Valley Near North Northern DuPage DeKalb St. Charles/ County County Batavia/ Eastern Northern Corridor Geneva DuPage County/ City of Western Northwestern Corridor Chicago Southwestern Cook County DuPage County/Aurora/ Western Corridor Kendall County Southwestern Corridor Southern Corridor Southern City of Chicago Corridor Southwestern Corridor DeKalb County, IL Kenosha County, WI Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Single Family Sales Trends by Area 2005, 2011, and 2012 Percent Change Total Single Family Sales 2005 - 2005 - 2012 (1) 2012 (1) Corridor 2005 2011 2011 Chicago Metropolitan Area 14,598 1,229 1,638 -91.6 -88.8 City of Chicago 224 26 16 -88.4 -92.9 Suburban Area 14,374 1,203 1,622 -91.6 -88.7 Northern Corridor 1,463 224 275 -84.7 -81.2 Northwestern Corridor 3,687 436 531 -88.2 -85.6 Western Corridor 3,134 290 436 -90.7 -86.1 Southwestern Corridor 4,277 165 320 -96.1 -92.5 Southern Corridor 1,118 31 38 -97.2 -96.6 DeKalb County 385 15 9 -96.1 -97.7 Kenosha County, WI 310 42 13 -86.5 -95.8 (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Per Project Sales Rates – The Single Family Sector -- Suburban Chicago -- Average ANNUAL Sales by Development Average Annual Sales by Development 39.00 Suburban 36.00 Year Area 33.00 1999 31.12 30.00 27.00 2000 29.95 24.00 2001 33.45 21.00 2002 35.19 18.00 2003 32.47 15.00 2004 32.44 12.00 2005 30.46 9.00 2006 21.99 6.00 2007 13.36 3.00 2008 6.91 0.00 2009 4.75 2010 5.17 2011 5.98 2012 (1) 8.57 (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Suburban Single Family Sales Leaders -- YTD June 2012 -- SAAR Average Base YTD June 2012 (1) Program Location Builder Sales Price Autumn Creek Fields Yorkville Pulte $205,990 49.14 Blackberry Crossing-West Montgomery Ryland 200,190 41.86 Winchester Glen-Meadows Carpentersville Pulte 223,190 40.98 Liberty Lakes Wauconda K. Hovnanian 245,138 40.84 Churchill Club-Derby/Arlington Oswego K. Hovnanian 229,852 36.40 Symphony Meadows-Prairie Volo D.R. Horton/Cambridge 214,561 36.40 Lakewood Crossing-Meadows Hampshire Ryland 169,990 34.61 Cambridge Lakes-Meadow/Prairie Pingree Grove D.R. Horton/Cambridge 207,323 34.58 Providence-Cape Cod Estates Elgin K. Hovnanian 297,648 32.76 Talamore-Landmark Huntley Ryland 229,390 32.76 Providence-Blackstone Elgin K. Hovnanian 248,995 32.69 Talamore-Hartford Huntley Ryland 285,323 30.94 Grande Park-Anfield Plainfield Ryan 268,865 30.94 Whitmore Place St. Charles M/I 267,323 29.12 Carillon at Stonegate Aurora D.R. Horton/Cambridge 220,990 27.30 Cambridge at Heatherstone-Horizon Beach Park D.R. Horton/Cambridge 195,178 27.30 Mill Creek-Tanna Geneva ShoDeen 303,390 27.30 Misty Ridge Romeoville Beechen Dill 237,490 27.30 (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Townhome/Condominium Sales Trends by Area 2005, 2011, and 2012 Total Townhome/ Percent Change Condominium Sales 2005 - 2005 - 2012 (1) 2012 (1) Corridor 2005 2011 2011 Chicago Metropolitan Area 18,689 1,703 1,558 -90.9 -91.7 City of Chicago 7,302 580 513 -92.1 -93.0 Suburban Area 11,387 1,123 1,045 -90.1 -90.8 Northern Corridor 2,294 236 266 -89.7 -88.4 Northwestern Corridor 2,676 275 237 -89.7 -91.1 Western Corridor 3,158 430 351 -86.4 -88.9 Southwestern Corridor 1,710 124 111 -92.7 -93.5 Southern Corridor 1,110 45 75 -95.9 -93.2 DeKalb County 308 4 5 -98.7 -98.4 Kenosha County, WI 131 9 0 -93.1 --- (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Townhome/Condominium Sales Trends -- The New Construction Sector – Suburban Chicago -- Average Number Annual Total Sales Total of Active Volume Per 12,000 Year Sales Communities Community 11,000 10,000 1999 7,967 337 23.63 9,000 2000 8,547 324 26.35 8,000 2001 10,012 318 31.51 7,000 2002 9,141 325 28.16 6,000 2003 10,935 376 29.11 5,000 2004 11,489 392 29.32 4,000 2005 11,276 436 25.84 3,000 2006 8,613 471 18.30 2,000 2007 5,098 484 10.54 1,000 2008 2,181 448 4.87 0 2009 1,423 373 3.82 2010 1,287 289 4.46 2011 1,123 213 5.26 2012 (1) 1,044 171 6.12 (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Moderate Density Condominium Sales Trends -- The New Construction Sector – Suburban Chicago -- Average Number Annual Total Sales Total of Active Volume Per 2,600 Year Sales Communities Community 2,400 2,200 1999 1,345 62 21.67 2,000 2000 1,391 64 21.85 1,800 2001 1,763 60 29.25 1,600 2002 1,450 60 24.00 1,400 2003 2,067 80 25.85 1,200 2004 2,367 94 25.13 1,000 2005 2,389 109 21.95 800 2006 2,009 117 17.17 600 400 2007 759 120 6.30 200 2008 292 106 2.76 0 2009 185 84 2.20 2010 301 65 4.63 2011 197 47 4.16 2012 (1) 120 37 3.22 (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Suburban Attached Sales Leaders -- YTD June 2012 -- SAAR Average Base YTD June 2012 (1) Program Location Builder Sales Price Regency at The Glen-Villas Glenview Pulte $431,240 127.86 Mayfair-Grant Park Naperville M/I 260,240 41.86 Talamore-Towns Huntley Ryland 139,990 38.22 Sheffield Square-Uptown Orland Park M/I 215,240 37.93 Patriot Square-Seaboard Plainfield D.R. Horton/Cambridge 150,000 30.94 Regency at The Glen-Townes Glenview Pulte 325,740 29.06 Shelbourne Crossing Winfield M/I 215,240 27.30 Mayfair-Uptown Naperville M/I 226,240 25.48 Arlington Crossings Arlington Heights Pulte 276,990 24.24 (1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
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