The State of the Erie Economy Presentation to Presque Isle CPCU - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The State of the Erie Economy Presentation to Presque Isle CPCU Society Chapter September 14, 2017 Kenneth Louie The Economic Research Institute of Erie Sam and Irene Black School of Business Penn State Behrend

ERIE Resources on the Erie Economy www.ERIEdata.org

Three Key Metrics • The Erie Economy in 2017 • Output • Income • Employment

Total Output (GDP): Erie, PA, and U.S. Real (Inflation-Adjusted) GDP 140 U.S. 126 120 124 PA Indexed GDP ( 2009 $) 100 Erie 100 80 2015 Real GDP 60 US: $16.1 trillion 40 PA: $644.9 billion Erie: $9.7 billion 20 Latest: 2015 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Erie GDP by Industry (Percent of Total), 2015 Manufacturing 25.9% ($2.8 billion) Government 13.6% ($1.5 billion) Health care and social assistance 12.8% ($1.4 billion) Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 12.8% ($1.4 billion) Retail trade 7.0% ($756 million) Professional and business services 5.6% Wholesale trade 4.5% Erie GDP in 2015: Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and… 4.3% $10.9 billion Construction 3.1% Other services, except government 3.0% Transportation and warehousing 2.0% 2014 ($ millions): Educational services 1.9% FIRRL: $1,424 Information 1.9% Finance & Insurance: 887 Utilities 1.4% Insurance Carriers: 710 Mining 0.3% Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP by Industry (%), 2015: Erie versus PA and U.S. Location Quotient Erie PA U.S. Erie/PA Erie/U.S. Manufacturing 25.87% 12.12% 12.11% 2.14 2.14 Government 13.55% 10.08% 12.42% 1.34 1.09 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 12.75% 18.67% 20.40% 0.68 0.63 Health care and social assistance 12.75% 9.42% 7.25% 1.35 1.76 Retail trade 6.96% 5.11% 5.90% 1.36 1.18 Professional and business services 5.55% 13.02% 12.31% 0.43 0.45 Wholesale trade 4.46% 5.87% 6.10% 0.76 0.73 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services 4.25% 3.29% 3.96% 1.29 1.07 Construction 3.12% 4.19% 4.08% 0.74 0.76 Other services, except government 3.00% 2.22% 2.24% 1.35 1.34 Transportation and warehousing 1.96% 3.14% 3.03% 0.63 0.65 Educational services 1.93% 2.11% 1.13% 0.92 1.71 Information 1.86% 6.36% 4.69% 0.29 0.40 Utilities 1.35% 1.63% 1.59% 0.83 0.85 Mining 0.35% 2.25% 1.83% 0.16 0.19 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.28% 0.54% 0.98% 0.51 0.28 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP Per Capita $60,000 $50,418 U.S. (+18.7%) $50,000 Chained 2009 Dollars $44,689 $50,155 (+12.2%) PA $40,000 $42,458 Erie $34,914 $34,421 $30,000 (+1.4%) $20,000 $10,000 Latest: 2015 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real Income Per Capita Erie versus PA and U.S. Erie as a Percent of U.S. $60,000 95 Real Income Per Capita (2012 $) Real Income Per Capita, % of U.S. $48,266 (+86.3%) 90.7 $50,000 $48,187 (+99.3%) 90 86.3 $40,000 $25,912 85 87.0 $39,159 $24,173 $30,000 (+73.7%) 80 81.1 $20,000 $22,547 80.0 77.4 75 $10,000 Latest: 2015 Latest: 2015 $0 70 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real Median Household Income U.S. PA Erie County $60,000 Real Median Household Income $57,230 $51,914 $55,702 $50,398 $50,000 $47,386 $43,595 $40,000 2016: $30,000 US: $59,039 PA: $56,907 $20,000 Erie: $48,964 $10,000 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source for 2010-2014: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates Source for 2015-2016: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates ,Table B19013 (Figures for the U.S. for 2015 and 2016 are from U.S. Census News Release, 9/12/2017)

Average Weekly Wages by Industry, Erie County, 4 th Quarter 2016 Utilities $1,456 Finance and Insurance $1,415 Management of Companies and Enterprises $1,244 Manufacturing $1,151 Professional and Technical Services $1,148 Public Administration $1,067 Wholesale Trade $1,032 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction $937 Construction $922 Information $888 Health Care and Social Assistance $880 Transportation and Warehousing $844 Educational Services $835 Total, All Industries $809 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $661 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting $534 Retail Trade $496 Other Services, Ex. Public Admin $493 Administrative and Waste Services $451 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation $406 Accommodation and Food Services $275 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

Poverty Rates PA U.S. Erie County 20% 18.3% 17.5% 17.4% Percent of Population 15.3% 13.5% 15% 13.4% 13.2% 2016: US: 12.7% 10% PA: 12.9% Erie: 15.9% 5% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates, Table S1701 (Figures for the U.S. in 2015 and 2016 are from Census News Release, 9/12/2017))

Total Employment (Thousands) 100 110 120 130 140 150 80 90 January, 1970 (Seasonally Adjusted) (Jan 1970) Erie Total Employment, 1970-2017 February, 1971 101,400 March, 1972 April, 1973 May, 1974 June, 1975 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry July, 1976 August, 1977 September, 1978 October, 1979 November, 1980 December, 1981 January, 1983 February, 1984 March, 1985 April, 1986 May, 1987 June, 1988 July, 1989 August, 1990 September, 1991 October, 1992 November, 1993 December, 1994 January, 1996 (Feb 1999) February, 1997 136,300 March, 1998 April, 1999 May, 2000 June, 2001 July, 2002 August, 2003 September, 2004 October, 2005 November, 2006 December, 2007 January, 2009 February, 2010 Latest: July 2017 March, 2011 (July 2017) April, 2012 124,500 May, 2013 June, 2014 July, 2015 August, 2016

Total Employment (Thousands) 114 116 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 (Seasonally Adjusted) January, 1990 (Jan 1990) Erie Total Employment, 1990-2017 125,500 September, 1990 +10,800 May, 1991 (8.6%) January, 1992 September, 1992 May, 1993 January, 1994 September, 1994 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry May, 1995 January, 1996 September, 1996 May, 1997 January, 1998 – 8,200 (6.0%) (Feb 1999) September, 1998 136,300 May, 1999 January, 2000 September, 2000 May, 2001 January, 2002 (Aug 2003) September, 2002 128,100 May, 2003 +6,400 (5.0%) January, 2004 September, 2004 May, 2005 – 12,900 January, 2006 (9.6%) September, 2006 (May 2008) May, 2007 134,500 January, 2008 September, 2008 (Jan 2010) 121,600 May, 2009 January, 2010 September, 2010 +6,200 (5.1%) May, 2011 January, 2012 September, 2012 – 3,300 (2.6%) May, 2013 Latest: July 2017 (Feb 2015) January, 2014 127,800 September, 2014 (July 2017) May, 2015 124,500 January, 2016 September, 2016 May, 2017

Indexed Employment ( Jan 1970 = 100) 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 20 40 60 80 0 January, 1970 February, 1971 Total Employment, 1970-2017 March, 1972 April, 1973 May, 1974 June, 1975 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry July, 1976 August, 1977 September, 1978 October, 1979 (Indexed to Jan 1970) November, 1980 December, 1981 January, 1983 February, 1984 March, 1985 April, 1986 May, 1987 June, 1988 July, 1989 August, 1990 September, 1991 October, 1992 November, 1993 PA December, 1994 January, 1996 February, 1997 Erie March, 1998 April, 1999 May, 2000 U.S. June, 2001 July, 2002 August, 2003 September, 2004 October, 2005 November, 2006 December, 2007 January, 2009 February, 2010 Latest: May 2017 March, 2011 April, 2012 May, 2013 June, 2014 July, 2015 134 123 194 August, 2016

Total Employment, Jan – July, 2017 (Seasonally Adjusted) U.S. PA Erie 154,000,000 6,160,000 125,200 Total Employment Total Employment Total Employment 153,500,000 125,000 6,140,000 153,000,000 124,800 152,500,000 6,120,000 124,600 152,000,000 124,400 6,100,000 151,500,000 124,200 151,000,000 6,080,000 124,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

Employment by Industry (% of Total), Erie vs U.S. (2015) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Information System

Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 12.0% 10.1% 9.2% (Jan 2010) 10.0% (Dec 1991) 7.0% Unemplyment Rate 8.0% (Mar 2002) Erie PA 5.6% 6.0% U.S. 5.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.3% (Mar 2007) (Mar 2000) 2.0% Latest: July 2017 0.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

PNC’s Northwest Pennsylvania Market Outlook: 2017.Q1 (Source: PNC, http://www.pnc.com/economicreports)

The Evolution of Erie’s Economy Brookings Institution Analysis: Advanced Industries Source: Brookings Institution