The Safe Food Imperative Towards Smarter Investment and Regulatory - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Safe Food Imperative Towards Smarter Investment and Regulatory Delivery STEVEN JAFFEE SECOND GLOBAL MEETING OF THE FAO/WHO INTERNATIONAL FOOD SAFETY AUTHORITIES NETWORK (INFOSAN) ABU DHABI, UAE; DECEMBER 9 -11, 2019

Analytical and Advocacy Aims ➢ Synthesize evidence on socio-economic impacts of unsafe food ➢ Strengthen case for increased policy attention & public resources ➢ Provide guidance on strategy and ways to mainstream food safety ➢ Differentiate priorities based status of food system transformation Communicate all this to non-specialists!!

Main Messages ➢ Food safety is a core economic development issue but generally has not been recognized as such . When food safety has been on the development agenda this has primarily been in relation to trade. Today, the domestic agenda warrants increased attention. ➢ Domestic food safety has commonly featured major data and informational gaps, little policy coherence, and significant underinvestment . Concerted public action has normally reactive-- crisis management is more common than risk management. ➢ The gap between food safety capacity and actual need is especially large for today’s rapidly urbanizing lower middle income countries . For these countries, a ‘business as usual’ approach will result in very high public health and economic costs in the future. ➢ Many of these costs are avoidable. Through preventive public policy measures, smarter investment, increased information- and experience-sharing, and a paradigm shift in food safety governance and stakeholder engagement.

Starting Point Complex Subject + Widely Varying Circumstances + Little Data in the Public Domain • Country-specific data on food safety status/outcomes? • Structured information/comparative data on food safety capacities? • Hard evidence on the efficacy of food safety investments?

Sources and Methods SOURCES METHODS ➢ Data ➢ Simple conceptual framework relating food safety with economic development ➢ Public: WHO/FERG; OIE; UN COMTRADE; National ➢ Combine and analyze data for Governments countries, regions, & country income ➢ Private: GlobalGAP; IFOAM; groups Industry Associations ➢ Blend science & economics ➢ Extensive Literature Review : ➢ For messaging, combine broad Academic and Industry Surveys; principles with differentiated calls to Official Country Studies; Project action and recommendations Documents ➢ Commissioned Expert Papers & Case Studies

Concepts

Food safety is a mainstream economic development issue TRADITIONAL IMAGE FOOD SAFETY IS CRITICAL TO ACHIEVING THE OF FOOD SAFETY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS Food safety is foundational to: Food safety is integral to: 7

When food safety has been on the development agenda it has largely been in relation to trade and market access Prominent Concerns • Standards as non-tariff barriers? Visible trade impacts • Private standards = small farmer exclusion? • Standards compliance costs • Harmonization & equivalence Trade Domestic Invisible or unmeasured Well organized stakeholders Non-organized consumers domestic impacts Clear public SPS roles Fragmented food control mandates Costs incurred by lead firms FBD burden falls heavily on & farmers the poor

The economic case for food safety investment has several dimensions Food Market Cost Avoidance Performance International Competitiveness Economic Case

Impacts of improved food safety capacity are complex and wide-ranging Many of these impacts are underestimated or unnoticed

The FOOD SAFETY LIFECYCLE The economic costs of unsafe are systematically linked to processes of economic development and food system transformation Transitioning Modernizing Post-Modern Traditional Food Safety Economic Burden Rapid dietary diversity Formal sector responds Mature demand Low diet diversity Changing risks to consumer demands Risks well-managed Weak incentives Growing public capacity Lagging capacity and Periodic failures lead Weak capacity incentives Stronger incentives to rapid response Level of Economic Development Reflects the relationship or gap between food safety needs and actual capabilities and incentives

Evidence

Public Health Imperative: Global burden similar to AIDS/HIV, TB, Malaria Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group Children < 5 disproportionately affected ➢ 600 million illnesses/year (45% Asia; 15% Africa) ➢ 9% of global population ➢ 420,000 deaths/year (54% Asia; 33% Africa) ➢ 38% of illnesses ➢ 33 million DALYs (55% Asia; 30% Africa) ➢ 30% of premature deaths ➢ New analysis on heavy metals: 9 million DALYs ➢ Foodborne infections linked to stunting FBD DALYs Attributable to Animal Source Foods ➢ Most FBD: microbial pathogens Share of DALYs Proportion of Countries ➢ Animal products and fruits/vegs <30% 19% ➢ Many hazards not quantified 30 to 50% 49% >50% 32% Source: Havelaar et al. 2015 Based on Li et al (2019)

Country-specific data suggest why food safety is (is not) given high priority in public health policy and spending Disability Adjusted Life Years Lost Per 100,000 People China Sri Vietnam Nigeria S. Africa Ethiopia Lanka Tuberculosis 148 205 414 2769 1694 1150 (2016) HIV/AIDS 67 28 440 5131 11928 1171 (2016) Malaria (2016) 1 1 1 4964 12 357 Foodborne 272 685 390 1322 797 967 Illness (2010) Based on: WHO Global Burden of Disease Statistics; FERG

Commercial Imperative: Demographic and Dietary Change and the New Middle Class Illustration from Asia ASIA WILL ACCOUNT FOR 90% OF THE GROWTH OF CHANGING FOOD EXPENDITURE PATTERNS THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TO 2030 — 2.2 BILLION TOWARDS ANIMAL PRODUCTS, PROCESSED MORE CONSUMERS WITH DISPOSABLE INCOME FOODS AND OUT-OF-HOME EATING Composition of per capita food expenditures, by commodity group in urban Indonesia

Commercial Imperative: Maintaining Trade Momentum Through Better Compliance DESPITE DISPROPORTIONALLY HIGH STEADY EXPANSION IN EMERGING CONSIGNMENT INTERCEPTIONS IN ASIA’S HIGH VALUE FOOD EXPORTS OECD MARKETS

Economic costs of unsafe food take many forms with both short & long-term dimensions

Unsafe food results in an estimated $110 billion in productivity losses or costs of treating illness in low and middle income countries, each year ‘Productivity Loss’ = Foodborne Disease DALYs x Per Capita GNI Cost estimates for 2016 (US$ billion) Productivity loss 95 Illness treatment 15 Trade loss or cost 5 Based on WHO/FERG & WDI Indicators Database Illness treatment = Trade loss or costs = US$27 x # of Estimated foodborne illnesses 2% of developing country high value food exports

Developing Asia and Africa account for most of this estimated productivity loss and these costs are also higher in relative terms PRODUCTIVITY LOSS AS A % OF TOTAL FOOD EXPENDITURES (2010)

Revisiting the Iceberg for sub-Saharan Africa Most development assistance for food safety in SSA focuses on trade, yet the ratio between domestic and trade-related food safety costs may be 50 to 1 Domestic Costs of Unsafe Food ($ Billion) Productivity Loss 16.7 Cost of Treatment 2.5 Total 19.2 Trade Related Costs ($ Million) Rejections 78 Deterred 234 Fixed Compliance Cost 155 Total 467

Can Countries Avoid the Upward Trajectory of Costs? Smarter investment & better regulatory delivery can lead Asia’s lower middle income countries to avoid $ billions in productivity losses, and (public health and commercial) costs Transitioning Modernizing Post-Modern Traditional INDIA THAILAND SRI LANKA INDONESIA BANGLADESH Food Safety Economic Burden NEPAL CHINA PAKISTAN VIETNAM MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES CAMBODIA SOUTH KOREA Or leapfrog to higher standards? AUSTRALIA SINGAPORE JAPAN Level of Economic Development

What is ‘business as usual’ in most low and middle-income countries? Investments and Institutions: Regulatory Delivery: Timing: Fragmented and Emphasis on Detecting Reactive Rather Than Uncoordinated Non-compliance, Not Preventive Leveraging Private Action

UNDERINVESTMENT: Many low and lower middle-income countries have only islands of food safety capacity in government and the private sector. The situation is much better for upper middle-income countries Skewed distribution Proportion of countries with adequate public sector of private capacities Capacities related to animal product food safety Source: Data from 93 OIE PVS Assessments

Capacity Matters &Pays Dividends: A One Health Example The burden of foodborne disease from animal-source foods is closely connected with related veterinary service capacities in SSA Sources: ASF burden reported in Li et al (2019); Capacity index reported in Jaffee et al (2019)

“You Get What You Pay For” African countries with ‘adequate’ funding of veterinary services are all clustered toward the bottom end of the burden of foodborne disease from animal-source food Inadequate Spending is Costly! NOTE: Countries with inadequate funding in red (rating = 1) and in orange (rating = 2); countries with adequate funding in green (rating =3 or 4).

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