The Role of Ocean Eddy Resolving Models in Seasonal to Decadal - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 21, 2023 •310 likes •493 views

The Role of Ocean Eddy Resolving Models in Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Predictability CESM Atmosphere: 0.5x0.5 Ocean: 0.1x0.1 [HRC] vs. 1x1 [LRC] New Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability Means,

The Role of Ocean Eddy Resolving Models in Seasonal to Decadal Prediction
Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Predictability • CESM – Atmosphere: 0.5x0.5 – Ocean: 0.1x0.1 [HRC] vs. 1x1 [LRC] • “New” Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability – Means, Fronts vs. Eddies (or Both)? • Does the Atmosphere Interact with the Individual Ocean Eddies? • Forecast Errors with LRC – Local Air-Sea Feedbacks
3 SST: Observational Estimate SST: LRC
4 SST: Observational Estimate SST: HRC
Rainfall: HRC, and LRC Rainfall: Observational Estimate 5
Sea Surface Height Standard Deviation LRC SSH HRC SSH
LR! HR! !
Correlation of LHF and SST for HRC Correlation of LHF and SST for LRC Time series of area-average SST over GoM region with marked warm and cold events Area-averaged SST normalized by standard deviation Model year
Full precipitation composite based on warm SST events over GoM (m/s) Full precipitation composite based on cold SST events over GoM (m/s) Full precipitation composite based on warm-cold SST events over GoM (m/s)
Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Predictability • CESM – Atmosphere: 0.5x0.5 – Ocean: 0.1x0.1 [HRC] vs. 1x1 [LRC] • “New” Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability – Means, Fronts vs. Eddies (or Both)? • Does the Atmosphere Interact with the Individual Ocean Eddies? • Forecast Errors with LRC – Local Air-Sea Feedbacks
Local SSTA- Turbulent Heat Flux Correlation
SST Standard Deviation Ratios
Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Predictability • CESM – Atmosphere: 0.5x0.5 – Ocean: 0.1x0.1 [HRC] vs. 1x1 [LRC] • “New” Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability – Means, Fronts vs. Eddies (or Both)? • Does the Atmosphere Interact with the Individual Ocean Eddies? • Forecast Errors with LRC – Local Air-Sea Feedbacks
Seasonal Forecast Errors
Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Predictability • CESM – Atmosphere: 0.5x0.5 – Ocean: 0.1x0.1 [HRC] vs. 1x1 [LRC] • “New” Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability – Means, Fronts vs. Eddies (or Both)? • Does the Atmosphere Interact with the Individual Ocean Eddies? • Forecast Errors with LRC – Local Air-Sea Feedbacks

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