The reproduction of the crisis and the pressures of the urban spaces - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

International Seminar ‘Nation - states crises, austerity and cities transformation in Europe’ IGOT, Lisbon 20 February 2014 The reproduction of the crisis and the pressures of the urban spaces Crossed tensions and intensions on the changing dynamics of the political spaces in Lisbon João Seixas ICS / CML, Lisbon Thanks to Simone Tulumello, Susana Corvelo, Ana Drago and António Guterres

The reproduction of the crisis and the pressures of the political spaces in Lisbon The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 1 Urban tendencies since 2008 The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 2 Institutional, civic and political changes since 2008 Political spaces for a new urbanity Research questionings and possible sociopolitical paths Structure of the presentation

Cities and Urban Condition in Europe in 2014 1987 2002

Cities and Urban Condition in Europe in 2014 buildings sales contracts (Nr and K € ) 12.000.000 4.500 4.000 10.000.000 3.500 8.000.000 3.000 2.500 6.000.000 2.000 1.500 4.000.000 1.000 2.000.000 500 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (data: INE) Grande Lisboa Peninsula de Setúbal (data: INE)

Cities and Urban Condition in Europe in 2014  The triple crash of the urbanization economies: the European crisis, the austerity pressures, the differentiated spatial impacts, the new exclusions… and the cities  The rise of the Austerity States: finantial / non-public driven / priorities  The place of the City as macro-inductor: of consumption, of (re)production, of knowledge, of sustainability, of quality of life… and of rights, of inequalities, of citizenship and of politics: the POLIS, again? Through radically different forms?  The New political Culture: between tensions and intensions. The reinvention of political action in the city: In what directions, how and with whom?

1 The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 1 Urban tendencies since 2008

URBAN DIAGNOSYS, PART 1 Analytical dimensions A. Economy B. Society C. Demography Themes and indicators Economic public transport activity management and use inequalities migration construction and flows (un)employment real estate mortgage/rent insolvency The crisis: part 1 (2008-2010) and part 2 (2010 to date)

ECONOMY AND SOCIETY employment employment rate 1.350 1.300 2008-2013 1.250 Less 180.000 employed 1.200 Total employment persons in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area 1.150 1.100 Continuous drop since 1.050 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008, with deeper impact on 2011 onwards (data: INE) Source: Eurostat/ INE

ECONOMY AND SOCIETY unemployment 20 Total 2008-2013 15 Employment Rate Unemployment rate more than doubled in Lisbon 10 Metropolitan Area 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Lisbon 8.4 7.9 9.2 10.6 13.9 16.9 17.3 Portugal Lisboa e Vale do Tejo Youth unemployment rate in 45 Lisbon Metropolitan Area Youth (15-24) 40 over 40% since 2012 35 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 30 25 Lisbon 16.9 18.2 18.1 22.7 32.1 41.4 42.4 20 15 10 Unemployment growth is way 5 steeper since 2011 bailout 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (data: Eurostat and INE)

SOCIETY Use of public transport Wage development, inflation, public transport fares, 2003-2012 (1999=100) 220 2008-2012 200 201,13 lost of 100 millions of passengers in 180 public transport system in the Lisbon 160 Metropolitan Area 140 138,43 120 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cut-backs in public metropolitan transport fares inflation wage transport offer and significant fare increases Passengers in public transports in LMA, by (mostly 2011 onwards) modes of transport (nº), 2008-2012 300.000 234.371 2010-2012 250.000  lost of PT passengers: 23% 200.000 178.432 182.700  transport fares rise: 24% 154.000 150.000 96.377 100.000 77.146 50.000 28.446 24.098 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 subway bus urban train ferry (data: INE)

SOCIETY Inequalities Poverty risk population (after social transfers) Portugal and Spain (% of group total population, December 2012)  25,3% of total population in poverty risk / social Total 40,0 exclusion 20,0 Outros inactivos Empregados Portugal  20,1% after social 0,0 Espanha transfers Reformados Desempregados  Positive evolution till 2009  Negative evolution after 2009 Total 40,0  Spatial patterns of poverty: Fam. c/crianças Homem só 20,0 ‘Classical’ territorial Portugal guettization combined with 0,0 Espanha ‘new’ fractal patterns Fam. s/crianças Mulher só Fam. monoparentais

DEMOGRAPHY Migration flows Immigration, emigration and natural balance (nº), 2007-2012 From 2010 onwards, inversion of trends: 60000  Immigration flow falls drastically (2012: 51958 50000 half of 2009) 40000 30000  Emigration rises (2012: 3x 2009) 26661 20000 14606 10000 0 …not so attractive anymore 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -10000 -17757 -20000 -30000 natural balance imigration emigration (data: INE)

The crisis: urban diagnosis for Lisbon  There seems to be 2+1 considerably different crisis-impact phases: a) 2008-2010; b) 2010-present; c) Near future  The first phase impacts strongly on the ‘Urbanisation Economies’ most dependent sectors and territories  The second phase impacts widen throughout most of the urban territories of AML. Namely on ‘social transfers’ poor classes, as well as on middle-classes and public employment.  The third phase comes from the skills / demographic depression. With which socio-spatial impacts?  … the 2nd phase clearly including the austerity measures impacts, mostly driven by nation-state / Troika  … but also including local / urban reactions  The present scenarios are considerably complex / incoherent: clearly needing deeper analysis: namely on the socio-spatial patterns

2 The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 2 Institutional, civic and political changes since 2008

part 2 Urban politics Analytical dimensions A. Institutional B. Civil Society and C. Urban Regimes Structures Citizenship EU, national and local Communities Profiles of citizenship urban structures of power Themes and civic participation National reforms Participatory The political instruments Local reforms spaces of Lisbon Local elections Urban politics/ Urban regimes: within vs. beyond the crisis

PRESENT SITUATION FOR EUROPEAN URBAN POLICIES  EU Starting an urban agenda: through divergent directions?  Nation-States Weak urban agendas  Metropolises Almost none agendas / non-existent at all  Cities Left alone?... With secular and present serious constraints  Neighborhoods Left alone?…

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES Local government capacitation A Secular ‘Austerity Localism’  Portugal is the second lower % of Sub-national public expenditure on EU ‘non - micro’ countries DEXIA / CEMR 2012 (data 2010)  Regions: 4,45%; Municipalities 10,11%; Parishes: 0,14%  This status being followed by:  Cuts of national transfers to local governments (2010-2014)  Economic crisis: reduction of local taxes revenues  2013: new legislation  new limits to local government borrowing  2018: suppression of municipal economic and real estate taxes

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES Local government capacitation Municipal budgets trends (revenues): • Until 2010/2011 the trend was for generalized growth • Since then, significative drops are mainly caused by cuts in national transfers and reduced taxation revenues (with few exceptions, i.e. Lisbon – not in the graph – Cascais, Seixal) 250,0 200,0 Barreiro Cascais Loures 150,0 Mafra Odivelas 100,0 Oeiras Palmela (elaboration of authors) Seixal 50,0 Vila Franca de Xira 0,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

LOCAL ELECTIONS Participation and main parties 65%  Low levels of participation voters 60% 55%  Reduction of voters and votes 50% PT of main parties Lisboa 45% Setúbal 40%  Increasing protest votes and 35% independent parties votes 30% 2005 2009 2013 Lisboa Setúbal 400.000 180.000 160.000 350.000 140.000 300.000 left 120.000 centre-left 250.000 100.000 centre-right 200.000 80.000 independend 150.000 60.000 protest vote 100.000 40.000 50.000 20.000 0 0 2005 2009 2013 2005 2009 2013 (elaboration of authors on data DGAI)