5/14/13 ¡ The Relationship Between U.S. and International Prices for Dairy Commodities • USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News (DMN) VS Dairy Mandatory Reporting Program (DPMRP) for US • Global Dairy Trade (GDT) • Eurostat • Dairy Co • Statistics New Zealand • Livestock Improvement Corporation (LIC) New Zealand • Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics & Sciences (ABARES) • Dairy Australia • CLAL • Global Trade Information System (GTIS) 1 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ DMN International Prices DPMRP US Prices http://marketnews.usda.gov/ http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy • Product price series: • Cheddar price series: Sept. 1993-present March 1997-present & butter, NDM and whey price series: Sept. 1998- present • Products include butter, • Products include butter, cheddar, SMP, whey, cheddar, NFDM, whey WMP, butter oil • Prices collected & • Prices collected & published weekly published bi-weekly • Prices submitted are • Prices submitted are mandatory through an voluntary through electronic system phone calls DMN cont. DPMRP cont. • Prices reported by • Prices reported by co- plants ops, brokers, marketers, gov’t agencies • Prices published are a • Prices published are a low-high range weighted average • Volumes are not • Volumes are reported reported nor published and published • Prices are when buyer • Prices are when title transfers & product & seller agree to a sale, ships. Prices could not not when product is shipped have been set 30 or more days before • Prices are FOB Port • Prices are FOB Port 2 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ • Prices cover majority of volumes sold • Discretion is used on reporting prices o For example, if a price collected seems really outside the range of other collected prices, staff will ask further questions and may find out a price is much lower than the range they have seen because it is a year long contract. DMN may decide to not include this price in the range that is published. Oceania Western Europe • Overview • Overview • Butter • Butter • Butter Oil • Butter Oil • SMP • SMP • WMP • WMP • Sweet Whey • Cheddar Cheese Eastern Europe • Overview 3 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ • Established in 2008 • Trading auction events occur 2X month • GDT is operated by Global Dairy Trade Holdings Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited (Fonterra). GDT is operated separately from Fonterra, and all auctions are run entirely by the Trading Manager, CRA International, Inc. Fonterra Only Multiple Suppliers • BMP (for UHT from • AMF (regular & premium Fonterra & std. from Arla) grades from NZ/Aus) • Edible & Refined Edible • Butter (salted & unsalted) Lactose (Murray • Cheddar Cheese (frozen, Goulburn) hi solid & young) • SMP (low, med, high • MPC70 heats & for UHT from Fonterra), (low & med, • Ren Cas (30 & 90 mesh) reg & upgraded from • WMP (regular and instant Dairy America), (low & fortified from NZ/Aus & for med reg heats from Arla) UHT) 4 ¡
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5/14/13 ¡ Statistics New Zealand LIC New Zealand http://www.stats.gov.nz http://www.lic.co.nz • Gov’t Dept., National • Dairy Cooperative Statistical Office • Downloadable • Annual Reports Statistics Database • Detailed info. on • Number of cows & number, type & age of detailed info. on herds cows & slaughter • Dairy input expense • Average dairy co. indexes payout per kg/ • Milk food price Index milksolids • Export & Import • Production of milk & quantities & values components Australian Commodities Quarterly Reports • World View • Production and Consumption Data • Cow Numbers • Provides world price forecasts for farmgate milk, WMP, SMP, cheddar cheese and butter • Supply and Demand outlooks and prospects for specific products and in particular for Australia 6 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ • Production & Sales Statistics o Milk Powder o Cheese (multiple varieties) o Butter o Casein & Whey o Fresh Products (yogurts, desserts, etc.) • Cow Numbers & Prices • Domestic Sales & Consumption Summaries 7 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ • An Italian Dairy Economic Consulting firm • Market Analysis: (production, stocks, prices) for milk and dairy products in Italy, Europe, US, Oceania, Argentina, etc. • World trade flows: breakdown by the main dairy exporting and importing countries and by single dairy product • Forecasts: dairy products short-term trend analyses for production, stocks, and prices. 8 ¡
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5/14/13 ¡ • Focus on Italy • Other EU countries: France, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic • Cheese o Japan import prices for caseins • Butter o Malaysia palm oil wholesale prices • WMP o Argentina wholesale prices 10 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ • Private Company – must pay for this product • Import and Export Bi-lateral Customs Data • Monthly and Annual • More than 80 countries • By HTS codes o At the six digit level codes are harmonized among countries o Goes further than six digits for some countries 11 ¡
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Jan-00 Jan12-‑Mar13 ¡ Jan00-Mar13 ¡ Jan11-‑Dec11 ¡ Jan11-Mar13 ¡ May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 EU/US ¡ -‑0.22 ¡ 0.75 ¡ 0.16 ¡ 0.94 ¡ May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 EU Whey Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 US Whey Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 EU Whey Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 US Whey Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 5/14/13 ¡ 12 ¡
1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Oceania SMP Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Oceania SMP Jan-05 May-05 EU SMP Sep-05 Nov 05 Jan-06 May-06 EU SMP Sep-06 Jan-07 US NDM May-07 Sep-07 US NDM Jan-08 May-08 SMP GDT Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 5/14/13 ¡ 13 ¡
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Jan12-Mar13 Jan05-Mar13 ¡ Jan00-Mar13 ¡ Jan11-Mar13 ¡ Jan11-Mar13 ¡ Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Oceania Butter Sep-04 OC/EU ¡ OC/GDT ¡ Jan-05 0.82 0.82 ¡ 0.94 ¡ 0.97 ¡ May-05 0.97 ¡ Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 EU Butter Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 OC/US ¡ Sep-07 EU/GDT ¡ 0.84 0.77 ¡ 0.83 ¡ 0.93 ¡ US Butter Jan-08 0.83 ¡ May-08 Sept 08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 EU/US ¡ May-10 US/GDT ¡ 0.89 0.67 ¡ 0.90 ¡ 0.88 ¡ Sep-10 0.83 ¡ Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 5/14/13 ¡ 14 ¡
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 Sep-01 Jan12-Mar13 Jan11-Mar13 ¡ Jan08-Mar13 ¡ Jan00-Mar13 ¡ Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Oceania Butter Sep-04 Jan-05 Oceania Cheese May-05 OC/EU ¡ Sep-05 0.65 0.91 ¡ 0.90 ¡ 0.96 ¡ Mar 06 Jan-06 May-06 EU Butter Sep-06 Jan-07 US Cheese May-07 Sep-07 US Butter OC/US ¡ Jan-08 -0.08 0.74 ¡ 0.71 ¡ 0.52 ¡ May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 EU/US ¡ 0.41 0.86 ¡ 0.77 ¡ 0.48 ¡ Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 5/14/13 ¡ 15 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 Oceania Cheese US Cheese Cheese GDT OC/US ¡ Jan00-Mar13 ¡ 0.78 ¡ Jan06-Mar13 ¡ 0.84 ¡ Jan11-Mar13 ¡ 0.53 ¡ Jan12-Mar13 0.11 OC/GDT ¡ US/GDT ¡ Jul11-Mar13 ¡ 0.91 ¡ 0.47 ¡ 16 ¡
5/14/13 ¡ Agricultural Marketing Service, Dairy Programs http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/dairy Corinne Sierzant, Economist corinne.sierzant@ams.usda.gov Phone: 202-260-8309 17 ¡
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