The Puget Sound Regional Economy 2017 Seattle Rotary 4 January 4, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Puget Sound Regional Economy 2017 Seattle Rotary 4 January 4, 2017 Chris Mefford President & CEO

About Community Attributes Regional Land Use Economics Economics Data Dashboards & Community & Economic Business Intelligence Development Information Surveys & Design Market Research 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 2

Three Fundamentals of Our Economy 1. We are a statewide economy 2. Our quality of life is our greatest economic asset 3. Trade, important capital, or decline 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 3

Fundamental #1 We are a Washington State economy

84% 68% Jan 4, 2017 76% 58% 41% 3.4 million jobs 138,500 Whatcom + Skagit WA Jobs 7.3 million residents WA Jobs WA Jobs WA Jobs WA Jobs 283,700 Snohomish 50,000 farm jobs 1,385,100 245,800 90,300 44,800 King Spokane Kitsap Wenatchee 83,900 308,700 Yakima Pierce 112,500 110,400 Thurston Kennewick Source: CAI, ESD, PSRC 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 5

Jan 4, 2017 3.4 million jobs 138,500 Whatcom + Skagit 7.3 million residents 283,700 Snohomish 136,100 50,000 farm jobs 1,385,100 245,800 90,300 44,800 King Spokane Kitsap Wenatchee 83,900 308,700 Yakima Pierce 112,500 110,400 Thurston Kennewick Source: CAI, ESD, PSRC 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 6

Jobs Forecast, 2015-2018 7

Real Annual GDP Growth Seattle Metropolitan Area and U.S. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 8

Real GDP Growth, 2010-2015 Seattle Metropolitan Area Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 9

Annual Employment Historic and forecast, Central Puget Sound Region 2016 employment growth of 3.5%. Employment in 2017 projected to grow 2.2%. Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 10

Seattle Employment Quarterly employment, year-over-year change, Seattle MSA 1.7 million jobs in the region in Q3. Nearly 4% year-over- year increase in Q3. Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 11

Unemployment Rate Seattle Metro Area and Washington State Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. Metro area represented by the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett Metropolitan District. Not seasonally adjusted. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 12

Productivity Gains Real GDP per worker, Seattle-T acoma-Bellevue, WA 2015 $ 2001-2014 CAGR: 1.4% 2001-2014 CAGR: 1.0% 2001-2014 CAGR: 0.7% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 13

Fundamental #2 Our quality of life is our greatest economic asset

How do we do better? Help Grow, • Branding, marketing, promotion Recruit • Trade shows Businesses • Site selection support • Workforce • Tax policies supports Retain & Sustain • Entrepreneurial • Higher education support Businesses, • Permitting, Entrepreneurs business support • Basic needs • Parks & trails • Housing • Cultural assets Provide Livable • Transportation • Vibrant neighborhoods Communities • Schools & early childhood • Public safety

Puget Sound Regional Growth Change in Jobs Net Migration Annual Change in Jobs & People Office of Financial Management, Washington State Employment Security Department 16

Growth by City Population Change, 2010-2015

King County Population Growth 2010-2015 Growth Less Annexations Office of Financial Management

King County Jobs: Housing Units Jobs to Housing Units Ratios Office of Financial Management, Puget Sound Regional Council

Household Forecast, 2015-2018 20

Population Change King County and the U.S., 2000-2016 Sources: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2016; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 21

Real Median Household Income Indexed to 1989 Sources: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2016; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 22

Income Gains Percentage change in real wages (2015 $), 2009-2015, Seattle-T acoma-Bellevue, WA Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 23

Middle Wage Jobs by Occupation Group Jobs that pay between $38,000 and $77,000 in King County • At an average of 1.3 earners per households, jobs that support middle household incomes range in pay from $38,000 to $77,000 per year. • Jobs in this wage range increased by 10,000 in Seattle from 2005 to 2013 (0.3% CAGR). • All other jobs increased by 135,000 (1.5% CAGR). 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 24

Middle Wage Openings by Sector Jobs that pay between $38,00 and $77,000 in King County, 2015 Total Middle • The Services sector Wage Jobs had 6,000 middle wage 127,600 job openings in 2015, the most of any sector. 68,700 • Information had the 57,300 highest growth rate of 57,000 middle wage jobs from 2014 to 2015. In 2015, 51,900 4.9% of the sector’s middle wage jobs were 40,900 from new openings. 40,000 38,100 28,400 27,900 Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 25

Fundamental #3 Trade, Import Capital, or Decline

Circular Flows of the Economy 29

Washington State Goods Exports, 2002-2015 Aerospace All other exports Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 30

Export Markets for Washington T op merchandise and commodity markets, 2015 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 31

Workers in Foreign Invested Firms Seattle Region, 2007-2014 (estimated) • Washington ranks 35 th in FDI jobs/total workforce (2014). • Seattle ranked 25 th in cumulative greenfield FDI, 2009-2015. • Washington ranked 25 th in Chinese FDI from 2000-2015, and 29 th on per capita basis. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016; Brookings Institute, 2016; Rhodium Group, 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 32

Strengths & Growth Central Puget Sound Region U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 33

Aerospace U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 34

Direct Jobs in Washington • Aerospace employment has remained stable in recent years. • Related industries added 3,700 jobs year-over-year in 2015. Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Washington Aerospace Partnership, 2013 and 2015; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 35

Aerospace & Related Jobs by County, 2015 Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Washington Aerospace Partnership, 2013 and 2015; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 36

Aerospace Business Revenues (2015 $) Sources: Washington Department of Revenue, 2016; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 37

Boeing Aircraft Forecast Boeing currently has a backlog of 5,635 orders. Source: The Boeing Company, 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 38

What to Watch 2017: Aerospace Boeing Historic backlog; productivity • Significant dependence on China • Major price competition underway • Local jobs part of nationwide • capacity puzzle Hiring needs still great; fill open positions • Other Aerospace Space! Emerging industry? • Continued growth in smaller companies • Supply chain diversification • 40

Information U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 41

Information & Communication Technology Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016. 1/3/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 42

IT Industries Circle size indicates relative size (jobs) of Industry and Tech Units 43

Occupational Concentration (Location Quotient) Washington State and Seattle MSA, 2014 44

What to Watch 2017: T echnology TALENT, TALENT, TALENT • Continued growth in Cloud • Services Amazon and Microsoft • Virtual Reality and Augmented • Reality More tech in other industries • More company headquarters • Start-ups • IPOs • Funding … • 45

What to Watch 2017: Manufacturing • Key local industries – Ship Building – Food Production – Craft Manufacturing – Construction Related • China • Makers spaces • Small businesses 46

Other Exports 47