The potential for CO measurements to estimate North American fossil - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The potential for  CO  measurements to estimate North American fossil fuel CO  emissions Sourish Basu, John Miller, Scott Lehman T M O D A S P N H A E R C I C I N A A D E M C I O N I L S A T N R O A I T T I A O N N U E . C S . R D E E M P A M R O T C M E O F N T GMD Annual Conference Boulder,  May 

What is the issue? . FF estimate Measurements of total CO  are generally ineffective at estimating fossil fuel CO  emissions Fossil fuel CO  Total CO  

What is the issue? . NEE estimate dC dt = F oce + F bio + F fos 2010 average 2010 average Biosphere flux Fossil fuel (grams C/m²/day) (grams C/m²/day) −0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 ◮ Almost all atmospheric CO  inversions assume CO  (ff) “perfectly” known, solve for natural fluxes ◮ Global annual FF known to within , not true at small scales ◮ Usually not up to date, EDGAR  yr old, Vulcan  yr old 

What is the issue? . NEE estimate dC dt = F oce + F bio + F fos 2010 average 2010 average Biosphere flux Miller/CT − Miller/Vulcan (grams C/m²/day) (grams C/m²/day) −0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 −0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 ◮ Almost all atmospheric CO  inversions assume CO  (ff) “perfectly” known, solve for natural fluxes ◮ Global annual FF known to within , not true at small scales ◮ Usually not up to date, EDGAR  yr old, Vulcan  yr old 

Over ConUS, ∆  CO  signal dominated by fossil fuel ∆  C ff −  � (i.e., zero  CO  ) = −  .  � ∆  C for  ppm CO  (ff) Scaling in  = fossil fuel, ocean and land disequilibrium, nuclear and fossil fuel only cosmogenic production 

Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) OSSE to gauge potential of  CO  measurements How accurately can a CO  +  CO  inversion estimate fossil fuel fluxes ◮ with  CO  measurements at the level of  coverage? 

Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) OSSE to gauge potential of  CO  measurements How accurately can a CO  +  CO  inversion estimate fossil fuel fluxes ◮ with  CO  measurements at the level of  coverage? ◮ with ∼   CO  measurements/year? 

OSSE results : fluxes Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from United States 0.48 1638 Prior 2010 coverage NRC 5000 0.47 1604 Truth Truth ±5% 0.46 1570 gC/m²/day TgC/year 0.45 1536 0.44 1502 0.43 1468 0.42 1434 0.41 1399 b r y c n r n u l g p t v a e a p a u u e c o e M A M J O D J F J A S N Monthly fluxes ±  recovered for the continental US ... 

OSSE results : fluxes Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from Eastern US 1.10 916 1.05 875 gC/m²/day TgC/year 1.00 833 Prior 0.95 791 2010 coverage NRC 5000 Truth Truth ±5% 0.90 750 b n r r y n u l g p t v c a e a p a u u e c o e M J O D J F A M J A S N ... for large subregions ... 

OSSE results : fluxes Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from East North Central US 1.25 292 Prior 2010 coverage NRC 5000 1.20 280 Truth Truth ±5% 1.15 268 gC/m²/day TgC/year 1.10 257 1.05 245 1.00 233 0.95 222 b n r r y n u l g p t v c a e a p a u u e c o e M J O D J F A M J A S N ... for large subregions ... 

OSSE results : fluxes Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from NY-NJ-PA (USA) 1.30 117 1.20 108 1.10 99 gC/m²/day TgC/year 1.00 90 0.90 81 Prior 2010 coverage 0.80 NRC 5000 72 Truth Truth ±5% b r y c n r n u l g p t v a e a p a u u e c o e M A M J O D J F J A S N ... and even for fairly small regions. 

OSSE results : fluxes Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from the New England states Prior 2010 coverage 1.00 58 NRC 5000 Truth Truth ±5% 0.90 52 gC/m²/day TgC/year 0.80 46 0.70 40 0.60 35 b r y c n r n u l g p t v a e a p a u u e c o e M A M J O D J F J A S N ... and even for fairly small regions. 

OSSE results : correlations Correlation −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 United States Western US Correlation between fossil fuel and biogenic CO₂ fluxes from Jan 1, 2010 to Jan 1, 2011 Central US Eastern US dC dt = F natural + F fos Mountain US East North Central US NRC 5000 (no ¹⁴CO₂)  West North Central US NY-NJ-PA (USA) West South Central US South Atlantic US the New England states Pacific US East South Central US

OSSE results : correlations Correlation −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 United States Western US Correlation between fossil fuel and biogenic CO₂ fluxes from Jan 1, 2010 to Jan 1, 2011 Central US C d dt ∆ atm = (∆ fos − ∆ atm ) F fos + · · · Eastern US dC dt = F natural + F fos Mountain US East North Central US NRC 5000 (no ¹⁴CO₂) NRC 5000  West North Central US NY-NJ-PA (USA) West South Central US South Atlantic US the New England states Pacific US East South Central US

Take home messages ◮  CO  measurements provide a top-down constraint on fossil fuel CO  emission estimates ◮ All CO  inversions assume a “known”fossil fuel flux, which can be relaxed using measurements of  CO  ◮ With   CO  obs/year, we could recover the monthly national total FF CO  to , and also monthly regional FF CO  from high-emitting regions ◮ Even with  coverage, we could recover the monthly national total FF CO  to  for most months 

Isotope geochemistry of  CO  

Isotope geochemistry of  CO  [︃ (  CO  / CO  ) sample ]︃ δ  CO  = ×  � −  (  CO  / CO  ) reference [︃ relative abundance in sample ]︃ = “typical”relative abundance −  ×  � ◮ (  CO  / CO  ) reference =  .  ×  −  ◮ Basis for radiocarbon dating; older the sample, lower the δ  C ◮ Emitting fossil fuel CO  “ages”the atmosphere 

Isotope geochemistry of  CO  Tree ring ∆  C by Stuiver & Quay,  

Isotope geochemistry of  CO  

Isotope geochemistry of  CO  Niwot Ridge, Colorado, United States (NWR) 80 ( δ 14 C CO 2 ) Carbon-14/Carbon in Carbon Dioxide () NWR δ 14 C CO 2 Carbon Cycle Surface Flasks 70 60 50 40 30 20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Graph created ESRL/GMD - 2014-November-01 04:50 am 

Total Cosmogenic production Nuclear facilities Land disequilibrium Ocean disequilibrium Fossil fuel −100 −80 −60 −40 −20 0 20 Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Isotope geochemistry of  CO  Total Cosmogenic production Nuclear facilities Land disequilibrium Ocean disequilibrium Fossil fuel −10 −5 0 5 Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Global budget 

Isotope geochemistry of  CO  Total Total Cosmogenic Cosmogenic production production Nuclear Nuclear facilities facilities Land Land disequilibrium disequilibrium Ocean Ocean disequilibrium disequilibrium Fossil fuel Fossil fuel −10 −5 0 5 −100 −80 −60 −40 −20 0 20 Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Global budget Continental US budget 

Over North America, fossil fuel dominates ∆  C ff −  � (i.e., zero  CO  ) = −  .  � ∆  C for  ppm CO  (ff) Scaling in  = fossil fuel, ocean and land disequilibrium, nuclear and fossil fuel only cosmogenic production 

NWR CMA 2010 average Miller/CT (grams C/m²/day) 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 

NWR NWR CMA CMA 2010 average 2010 average Miller/CT Miller/Vulcan (grams C/m²/day) (grams C/m²/day) 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 

Mass balance dC dt = F oce + F bio + F fos d dt ( C · ∆ atm ) =∆ fos F fos + ∆ atm ( F oce + F bio ) + ∆ oce F oce → atm + ∆ bio F bio → atm + α ( F nuc + F cosmo ) tracers transported fluxes estimated 

Sampling sites in  and NRC  CO₂ ¹⁴CO₂ 2010 coverage Surface sites Aircraft sites NRC 5000 

Inversion framework 