The meaning of robustness for flood risk management Marjolein Mens, Frans Klijn & Karin de Bruijn Deltares, the Netherlands
Common approach flood risk = flood probability x consequences land use map potential damage map damage functions flood depth map 22 September 2010
Common approach Flood risk = P x C the Netherlands: Climate change � P � � prevention � Economic development � C � � prevention � 22 September 2010
Robustness framework In view of climate change: “decrease vulnerability” “increase resilience” 2. limit “land use planning” 1.withstand damage and floods casualties robust Robustness = ability to remain flood risk functioning during disturbances system 3. recover quickly 22 September 2010
Flood risk system 22 September 2010
Flood risk system Westerschelde estuary 22 September 2010
Hazard map (De Bruijn et al 2008) 22 September 2010
Land use map 22 September 2010
Response graph resistance response robust flood risk system 6000 recovery 5000 economic consequence (Meuro) 4000 3000 2000 response & resistance recovery 1000 0 3,1 3,6 4,1 4,6 5,1 5,6 6,1 6,6 water level at Vlissingen (m+MSL) 22 September 2010
There is more to response Asset damage Modularity Redundancy resistance response Functionality robust flood risk system recovery 22 September 2010
Modularity Westerschelde Physically: High degree of modularity - ancient polder dikes. 22 September 2010
Flood depth map (De Bruijn et al 2008) 22 September 2010
Modularity Westerschelde Economically very low: High economic connection with other areas increases indirect damage 22 September 2010
Redundancy Components with same function respond differently to floods: • Alternative supply of goods and services • Different transport routes in and out of the flood-prone area • Crisis centres in different locations • Hospitals in different locations hospitals [www.risicokaart.nl] 22 September 2010
Functionality Critical infrastructure: • Electricity supply • Drinking water supply • Evacuation routes [www.risicokaart.nl] 22 September 2010
Recovery capacity Category Factors influencing the recovery capacity Social capital Trust in Equity Access to Strength of government services social organization Human capital Level of Degree of education health Economic Income level Debts/ savings/ Aid from other capital insurance areas 22 September 2010
Robustness mechanisms Mechanism Philosophy Example flood risk Resistance Prevent undesired Prevent inundation of system response socio-economic subsystem (dikes) Modularity Limit spread of Compartmentalization disturbance limit response Redundancy Components with same Multiple transportation function respond routes differently to disturbance Functionality Limit damage to critical Elevated highways, infrastructure Recovery capacity Enable quick recovery Health, education, savings, insurance, etc. 22 September 2010
Summarizing Robustness view: • Resistance, response and recovery • Not only how much damage, but also what causes it • Physical, social and economic aspects Robustness mechanisms • provide inspiration for flood risk reduction measures Future work: • Indicators for robustness • Compare different system configurations • Application for drought risk management 22 September 2010
Thank you response resistance recovery 22 September 2010
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