The Landscape of Water Past, Present, & Future Presented by: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Landscape of Water – Past, Present, & Future Presented by: Dr. Stephen G. Wells C ontributions from NM Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources

New Mexico Tech at a Glance Our Institution: Our Students: Total Revenue = $144M • • Students Enrolled = 1525 • 35.1% of total revenue from state undergrad; 610 grad government (among the lowest • 56% White, 28% Hispanic, 3% in NM) American Native (undergrad) 888 employees (665 Full-time), • • 64% majoring in Engineering including faculty, researchers, • 77% of entering freshman staff retained following fall semester • 211 faculty (full- & part-time) • Graduating class of 2017 = largest 19 academic programs • • 72% from New Mexico • $53.1M in External Awards • Ave. GPA 3.3%; • College Factual ranks Tech No. 1 • 74% GPAs of 3.0 and greater nationwide among all • 39% received at least 1 F in courses universities in value in at NMT Engineering & Physics. • 55% employed in New Mexico • Overall, Tech ranks No. 1 in New Ranks 11 th Nationally among Top • Mexico, No. 1 in the Southwest, State Universities By Salary and 17th among all public Potential for graduating students universities nationally.

The top 50 Universities that produce PhD students National Science Foundation Rankings 21. Kalamazoo College 41. Occidental College 1. Cal Tech 22. Cornell University 42. Hendrix College 2. Harvey Mudd College 23. Case Western Reserve 43. Vassar College 3. MIT 24. Washington College 44. Trinity University 4. Reed College 25. Brown University 45. College of William and Mary 5. Swarthmore College 26. Wesleyan University 46. St. John College 6. Carleton College 27. Carnegie Mellon 47. Bates College 7. University of Chicago 28. Macalester College 48. Whitman College 8. Grinnell College 29. Amherst College 49. Brandeis University 9. Rice University 30. Duke University 50. Hampshire College 10. Princeton University 31. Beloit College 11. Harvard University 32. Bowdoin College 12. Bryn Mawr College 33. Wellesley College 13. Haverford College Blue = Public Universities 34. RPI 14. Pomona College Black = Private 35. Earlham College 15. New Mexico Tech 36. Franklin and Marshall 16. Williams College 37. Lawrence University 17. Yale University 38. University of Rochester 18. Oberlin College 39. Univ of Cal-Berkeley 19. Stanford University 40. Dartmouth College 20. Johns Hopkins

Presentation Outline • Why the Title? • Understanding Variations of the Hydrologic Cycle Over Different Time Scales • Hydrologic Cycle, Humanity & Earth System Services over Time • The Future of Water in New Mexico – Challenges, Collaborations & Opportunities for New Mexico • Conclusions

Surface- & Ground-water Landscapes: Past & Present Latest Pleistocene to Holocene Latest Pleistocene to Modern Shorelines of Lake Shorelines Mojave, Silver Lake Basin, CA Pleistocene & Modern Groundwater Levels Sinkhole Plains, KY playa floor Historic Shorelines

Variations in the Hydrologic Cycle Over Time (from K.E. Trenberth, et al, 2007, 2011) The long-term mean global hydrological cycle

Continental Scale Drainage Basins in Arid Southwestern USA: Past & Present Hydrologic Systems  Drainage Basin Systems:  Owens River (glaciated mts.)  Amargosa River (continental interior)  Mojave River (unglaciated coastal mts) Death Valley

Landscapes of Modern and Pleistocene Hydrologic Regimes (from Wells Oblique aerial photo of Silver Lake et al, 2003; playa during 1938 flood event Enzel & Wells, 1997) 1938 flood event lake level Late Quaternary Paleohydrology of the Eastern Mojave River Drainage, Southern California: Quantitative Modeling of Late Quaternary Hydrologic Cycle in Large Arid Watersheds; U.S.G.S. and NM Water Resources Research Institute; 1986-1989

Variations in Hydrologic Cycle over 20,000 Years Estimated Ages of Lake Phases Silver Lake Basin, CA 8.7 ka – present = Holocene 11.4 ka - 8.7 ka = Intermittent III 13.7 ka – 11.4 ka = Mojave II 16.6 ka – 13.7 ka = Intermittent II (15.5 ka – 14.6 ka = major drying event) 16.6 ka – 13.7 ka = Intermittent II 18.4 ka – 16.6 ka = Mojave I 22.6 ka – 18.4 ka = Intermittent I to Incipient (from Brown, 1989; Wells et al, 2003)

Variations in Hydrologic Cycle over Past 9 ka Episodic Lake Stands During the Holocene aridity (from Brown, 1989; Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Historic Flooding & Short-Lived Modern Lakes January 1916 flood inundating Silver Lake town. (from Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Global Conditions for Historic Flooding & Lake Events Composite N. Pacific sea- level pressure (A) and anomaly (B) for eight months of floods and lake-building events. (from Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Modeling Results of 4 Different Hydrologic Conditions and Associated Climatic Scenarios (from Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Estimating Past Hydrologic Conditions  Modern extreme flood & lake-building events form basis for paleohydrologic analysis of pluvial lakes  Using simplified precipitation-discharge/evaporation model, infer late Pleistocene hydrologic conditions resulting in lake filling and overflow to Death Valley  We infer that late Pleistocene hydrologic regime lies between following conditions:  50% increase in precipitation in headwater catchments resulting in annual flood events & 3 times flood Q of modern extreme events with 50% decrease from modern evaporation  100% increase in catchment precipitation with 50% decrease in modern evaporation from modern with annual floods 2 times Q of modern extreme

SUMMARY  Recent geologic past provides critical perspective on the range of natural variability of the hydrologic cycle and the landscape of water  Use of modern hydrologic conditions to model past systems  Quantifying changes in hydrologic cycle over time provides a framework for understanding the potential boundaries/limits on future conditions

Variations in the Hydrologic Cycle and Human Civilization Rise of Human Civilization

In the Hydrologic (Water) Cycle – Humanity is both Delegated to & Dependent upon the Other “ When Samuel Taylor Coleridge wrote “water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink,” he did not have the 21st century’s global water situation in mind. But allowing for poetic license, he wasn’t far from correct. Today, the availability of water for drinking and other uses is a critical problem in many areas of the world. ” National Academy of Engineering, 2017 (NASA)

Grand Challenges for Engineering in the 21 st Century*: Provide Access to Clean Water Some Global Facts: • Lack of clean water is responsible for more deaths in the world than Water Landscapes of West Africa war. • About 1 out of every 6 people living today do not have adequate access to water. Polluted • More than double that number lack basic sanitation, for which water is needed. In some countries, half the • population does not have access to safe drinking water, and hence is afflicted with poor health. • By some estimates, each day nearly 5,000 children worldwide die from diarrhea-related diseases, a toll that Fresh would drop dramatically if sufficient water for sanitation was available. * National Academy of Engineering, 2017

The Global Change in Human Population each dot represents 1 million people each dot represents 1 million people Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton , "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract , Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

each dot represents 1 million people Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton , "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract , Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton , "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract , Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton , "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract , Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995. dot represents 1 million people

each dot represents 1 million people Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton , "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract , Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton , "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract , Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995. dot represents 1 million people

A New Factor in the Hydrologic Cycle beginnings of agriculture first dam constructed first irrigation documentation of air pollution pollution of rivers by Romans

The Hydrologic Cycle & Earth Services Systems Earth Science Services (ESS): “Array of benefits for humankind derived from the biogeochemical & hydrogeologic states & flows – sustains the biosphere for existence of life”* *Board of Earth Sciences & Resources, Nat. Acad. Sci.

Assessing Earth System Services Functionality Present and Future P-E is the net flux of water at the surface that, over land, sustains soil moisture, groundwater and river runoff – “a measure of ESS functionality” Seager et al., 2007