THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPERIENCE Dr Teresa Senserrick, PhD Learner Driver Mentor Program Seminar Sydney, 12 May 2009
Overview > Youth and road trauma in NSW > Crash risk from Ls to Ps > Age versus inexperience > Why 120 hours? > Common learner requirements > Does it work? > Conclusions
Over-representation of NSW youth in road trauma > #1 cause of death & acquired disability > Novice drivers aged ≤ 25 years > 15% licensed driver population > 36% road fatalities > Novice driver crashes 1993-2003 > Over 1,000 fatalities > 17 year-old P1 drivers > 4x more likely to be involved in fatal crash than driver >25 (RTA, 2008)
Young driver casualty crash risk – Victoria (VicRoads, 2008)
Young driver casualty crash risk - Queensland (Queensland Transport, 2009)
Young driver crash risk – Nova Scotia, Canada (Mayhew et al, 2003)
Young driver crash risk - Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, United States (McCarrt et al, 2003)
Young driver crash risk - Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, United States (McCarrt et al, 2003)
Older age at provisional licensure reduces crash risk Figure 2. Self-reported crashes per million kilometres by licensing and crash age in The Netherlands (Twisk, 2007)
Why 120 hours? In September 1993, Sweden increased learner period > From 6 to 24 months > Minimum age from 17½ to 16 years > Minimum ‘provisional’ licence age remained 18 years > Minimum learner period remained 6 months Significant reductions in crashes for those using 24 months > 40% reduction to previous years > 24% reduction compared to 6 months > 15% overall reduction in crashes Those using full 24-month learner period averaged 120 hours supervised driving compared to 45 hours for those licensed 6 months
Common supervisory driving requirements for learners Australia 0, 25, 50, 100, 120 hours Austria 3,000 kms* Finland 1,000 kms France 3,000 kms* Great Britain 15 hours Northern Ireland 10 hours Norway 2,000 kms Sweden 80 hours / 4,000 kms* United States 0, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60 hours * Optional
Positive findings - Austria: 3,000 km reduced crash risk KEY: SE = traditional L17 = 3,000 km supervised driving option (Twisk, 2007)
Negative findings - France: 3,000 km no change in crash risk > Higher success rate on driving tests > No change in casualty crashes 2 years after introduction > Insufficient experience in complex situations > Mostly routine trips, e.g., to local shops > Demanding situations taken over by supervisory driver > No real transfer to more independent driving (Page et al, 2000; Twisk, 2007)
Conclusions > Requirements too new for conclusive findings > Unknown impact on actual skill development Likely benefits > Extension of learner licence duration > Effective in reducing crashes (5-32%) > Older age at provisional licensure > Private vs professional training increases exposure > Times of day & weather conditions, particularly at night and in darkness > Speed zones, road types & trip durations
Conclusions Likely disbenefits > Disproportionate impact on disadvantaged communities > Lack of qualified supervisory drivers > Lack of access to vehicle for supervised practices > Potential to increase unlicensed driving NEED FOR LEARNER DRIVER MENTOR PROGRAMS!
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