The Health and Related Economic The Health and Related Economic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Health and Related Economic The Health and Related Economic Benefits of Attaining Healthful Air in Benefits of Attaining Healthful Air in the San Joaquin Valley the San Joaquin Valley Jane Vise Hall and Victor Brajer Jane Vise Hall and Victor Brajer The Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies The Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies California State University, Fullerton California State University, Fullerton Frederick W. Lurmann Frederick W. Lurmann Sonoma Technology, Inc. Sonoma Technology, Inc. 2006 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Symposium 2006 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Symposium December 6, Bakersfield, California December 6, Bakersfield, California 1

SJV Air Quality Status SJV Air Quality Status • Ozone • Ozone • Ozone NAAQS Ozone NAAQS Exceedances Exceedances are frequent are frequent • • SJV is classified as a “Serious” SJV is classified as a “Serious” • Nonattainment Area for 8 Nonattainment Area for 8- -hr NAAQS hr NAAQS • New Air Quality Management Plan, due in New Air Quality Management Plan, due in • 2007, will try to achieve compliance by 2013 2007, will try to achieve compliance by 2013 • Major Issue Major Issue – – No downward trend in recent No downward trend in recent • years years 2

Days Above the Federal 8- -hr Ozone hr Ozone Days Above the Federal 8 Standard in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin Standard in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin Source: SJVUAPCD 3

SJV Air Quality Status SJV Air Quality Status • PM • PM • Daily and Annual PM2.5 NAAQS are Daily and Annual PM2.5 NAAQS are • exceeded in the SJV exceeded in the SJV • Area is classified as “Serious” • Area is classified as “Serious” Nonattainment Nonattainment for PM2.5 for PM2.5 • New Air Quality Management Plan, due in New Air Quality Management Plan, due in • 2008, will try to achieve compliance by 2013 2008, will try to achieve compliance by 2013 • Compliance with the PM2.5 NAAQS will be Compliance with the PM2.5 NAAQS will be • more difficult than with the PM10 standards more difficult than with the PM10 standards 4

Annual Average PM2.5 in SJV Annual Average PM2.5 in SJV 25 NAAQS 20 Concentration (ug/m3) . 15 2002 2003 10 2004 5 0 Clovis Stockton Modesto Merced Visalia Corcoran Fresno - 1st St. Fresno - Hamilton Bakersfield - Planz Bakersfield - Calif. Ave Bakersfield - Golden St. Location 5

98 th 98 Concentration (ug/m3) 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 th Percentile 24 0 Stockton Percentile 24- PM2.5 Concentrations PM2.5 Concentrations Modesto Merced Clovis Fresno - 1st St. Fresno - Hamilton Location NAAQS Visalia -hour average Bakersfield - Golden St. Corcoran hour average Bakersfield - Calif. Ave Bakersfield - Planz 2004 2003 2002 6

Exposure Approach Exposure Approach Baseline Air Quality Baseline Air Quality • 2002 2002- -2004 Measurement Data in and 2004 Measurement Data in and • Around SJV Air Basin Around SJV Air Basin • Create Spatial Maps of Ambient Air Create Spatial Maps of Ambient Air • Quality Data Quality Data • Hourly Ozone Maps Hourly Ozone Maps • • Daily and annual PM2.5 Maps • Daily and annual PM2.5 Maps 7

Exposure Approach Exposure Approach Future Air Quality Future Air Quality • Determine Design Values (3 yr averages) • Determine Design Values (3 yr averages) • Project future year concentrations that • Project future year concentrations that comply with standards using Rollback comply with standards using Rollback Population Population • 2000 census data 2000 census data gridded gridded and adjusted and adjusted • to reflect the 2004 population to reflect the 2004 population • Grid, county, age and race/ethnicity • Grid, county, age and race/ethnicity breakdown breakdown 8

NAAQS Reduction Requirements NAAQS Reduction Requirements Background Design Future NAAQS Background Design Future NAAQS Value Value Value Value Ozone 8- -hr (ppb) hr (ppb) 40 116.7 85 Ozone 8 40 116.7 85 3 ) g/m 3 PM 2.5 PM 2.5 Annual ( Annual (µ µg/m ) 6 6 20.6 20.6 15.5 15.5 3 ) g/m 3 PM 2.5 24- -hr ( hr (µ µg/m ) 6 73.2 35.5 PM 2.5 24 6 73.2 35.5 PM 2.5 PM 2.5 24 24- -hr hr – –Previous Previous 6 6 73.2 73.2 65.5 65.5 9

Gridded Population Population Gridded Grid System 2000 Population Density SJV Air Basin 10

Ambient Air Quality Monitor Locations Ambient Air Quality Monitor Locations Ozone PM2.5 11

Spatially Mapped Annual Average PM2.5 Spatially Mapped Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations for 2002 Concentrations for 2002 12

Exposure Approach Exposure Approach Regional Human Exposure (REHEX) Model Regional Human Exposure (REHEX) Model • • Computes frequencies of population exposures on a Computes frequencies of population exposures on a spatial grid spatial grid • These REHEX simulation are for ambient exposures. • These REHEX simulation are for ambient exposures. They do not account for the modifying effects of They do not account for the modifying effects of buildings and vehicles, indoor sources, or human buildings and vehicles, indoor sources, or human time- time -activity patterns on personal exposures. activity patterns on personal exposures. • Results computed for averaging times associated • Results computed for averaging times associated with exposure- -response functions response functions with exposure – 1 1- -hr daily maximum hr daily maximum – – 5 5- -hr daily maximum hr daily maximum – – 8 8- -hr daily maximum hr daily maximum – – 10 AM – 10 AM – – 6 PM 6 PM – 24 – 24- -hr average hr average – Annual average – Annual average 13

Persons- -days per Year of Exposure to 8 days per Year of Exposure to 8- -hr Ozone hr Ozone Persons Above Various Concentration Thresholds Above Various Concentration Thresholds 1,000,000,000 2002 - 2004 Baseline Future 8-hr NAAQS Attainment 100,000,000 10,000,000 1,000,000 8-hr Ozone NAAQS 100,000 10,000 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 8-hr Daily Maximum Ozone Concentration Threshold (ppb) 14

Persons- -days per Year of Exposure to 24 days per Year of Exposure to 24- -hr PM2.5 hr PM2.5 Persons Above Various Concentration Thresholds Above Various Concentration Thresholds 1,000,000,000 2002 - 2004 Baseline Future 24-hr NAAQS Attainment Person-days per year above threshold . 100,000,000 10,000,000 24-hr PM2.5 NAAQS 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 24-hr Average PM2.5 Concentration Threshold (ug/m3) 15

Persons Exposed to Annual Average PM2.5 above Persons Exposed to Annual Average PM2.5 above Various Concentration Thresholds Various Concentration Thresholds 10,000,000 2002 - 2004 Baseline Future Annual NAAQS Attainment 1,000,000 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS 100,000 10,000 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration Threshold (ug/m3) 16

Person- -days per Year of Population Exposure to 8 days per Year of Population Exposure to 8- -hour hour Person Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations above 85 ppb Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations above 85 ppb Future NAAQS Attainment 2002 – 2004 Baseline 17

Person- -days per Year of Population Exposure to days per Year of Population Exposure to Person 24- -hour PM2.5 concentrations above 35 hour PM2.5 concentrations above 35 µg/m3 µg/m3 24 Future NAAQS Attainment 2002 – 2004 Baseline 18

Persons Exposed To Annual Average PM2.5 Persons Exposed To Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations Above 15 µg/m3 Concentrations Above 15 µg/m3 Future NAAQS Attainment 2002 – 2004 Baseline 19

Person- -days of Exposure to 8 days of Exposure to 8- -hr Ozone hr Ozone Person above 85 ppb (in millions per year) above 85 ppb (in millions per year) Region 2002 – 2004 Baseline With NAAQS Attainment SJV Air Basin 69 0.29 Fresno County 25.5 0.21 Kern County 19.7 0.04 Tulare County 10.8 0 Merced County 4.6 0 Madera County 3.4 0.04 Kings County 2.6 0 Stanislaus County 2.1 0 San Joaquin County 0.3 0 20

Person- -days of Exposure to 24 days of Exposure to 24- -hr PM2.5 hr PM2.5 Person above 35 µg/m3 (in millions per year) above 35 µg/m3 (in millions per year) Region 2002 – 2004 Baseline With NAAQS Attainment SJV Air Basin 126.6 3.59 Fresno County 36.3 1.23 Kern County 31.4 1.37 Tulare County 14.8 0.10 Merced County 6.6 0 Madera County 5.9 0.02 Kings County 5.6 0.03 Stanislaus County 15.3 0.83 San Joaquin County 10.7 0.01 21

Persons Exposed to Annual Average Persons Exposed to Annual Average PM2.5 above 15 µg/m3 (in thousands) PM2.5 above 15 µg/m3 (in thousands) Region 2002 – 2004 Baseline With NAAQS Attainment SJV Air Basin 2,486 521 Fresno County 785 183 Kern County 584 194 Tulare County 364 102 Merced County 148 0 Madera County 135 0 Kings County 134 41 Stanislaus County 155 0 San Joaquin County 180 0 22

Days per year Above Concentration Days per year Above Concentration in 2002- -2004 by Racial/Ethnic Group 2004 by Racial/Ethnic Group in 2002 45 PM2.5 40 Days per Year Above Concentration 35 30 All Ozone White 25 Black 20 Hispanic Other 15 10 5 0 8-hr O3 > 85 ppb 24-hr PM2.5 > 35 ug/m3 23