The Green New Deal, the Challenge of Decarbonization, and the Crucial Role of Public Ownership September 28th, 2019 Sean Sweeney and John Treat International Program for Labor, Climate and Environment, Murphy Institute, CUNY
Photo: BP
“We’re still behind on the scoreboard, but the momentum has shifted. We are winning.” — Al Gore, 2015
“The progression to low- emission, climate-resilient growth is inevitable, beneficial and already under way.” — Ban Ki-Moon, 2016
Stern on Post-Coal Growth World Total Coal Production (MT) “Only green growth can bring prosperity.” — Nicholas Stern and co- authors, 2017
But energy consumption continues to rise.
Oil consumption will soon reach 100mbd.
Gas consumption is rising 2% per year.
Even coal use began to rise again in 2017. Coal consumption by region, 2017 (million tonnes oil equivalent)
Emissions began rising again in 2017, and rose even faster in 2018.
“It is hard to overstate the urgency of our situation. Even as we witness devastating climate impacts causing havoc across the world, we are still not doing enough, nor moving fast enough, to prevent irreversible and catastrophic climate disruption.” — António Guterres, UN Sec Gen
“Some of that increase was weather-related: A relatively cold winter led to a spike in the use of oil and gas for heating in areas like New England…. “As United States manufacturing boomed, for instance, emissions from the nation’s industrial sectors—including steel, cement, chemicals and refineries—increased by 5.7 percent…. “[T]rucking and air travel also grew rapidly, leading to a 3 percent increase in diesel and jet fuel use and spurring an overall rise in transportation emissions for the year.”
“Sorry, I have very bad news. My numbers are giving me some despair.” — Fatih Birol, IEA, October 2018
October 8, 2018
On the report’s most likely scenario, by 2100 the world is projected to be a full 3 degrees Celsius warmer: “The world as it was in 2020 is no longer recognizable, with decreasing life expectancy, reduced outdoor labour productivity, and lower October 8, 2018 quality of life in many regions because of too frequent heatwaves and other climate extremes.”
AOC / Markey GND: • Affirms the need to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, and that the US must take a “leading role.” • Calls on federal government to lead emissions reductions, create good, high-paying jobs, ensure clean air, clean water and healthy food as human rights; end all forms of oppression. • Calls for the launch of a “10-year mobilization” to: • source 100% of US electricity from “renewable and zero- emissions” sources • digitize the US power grid • upgrade all buildings for energy efficiency • overhaul US transport to EVs and high-speed rail
Sanders GND: • Reach 100% renewable energy for electricity and transportation by 2030 and complete decarbonization by 2050 • Build sufficient wind, solar, energy storage and geothermal power plants to “fully drive out non-sustainable generation sources” from the electricity mix (with decarbonized transport) • “The renewable energy generated by the Green New Deal will be publicly owned.” • Weatherize homes and businesses for energy efficiency to reduce their energy consumption by 30 percent • Replace all mobile homes with zero-energy modular homes
Where do we stand? • The narrative is shifting. Both the headlines and the activism are very different from even just 5 years ago. • What’s still needed is a clear assessment of what is actually involved in meeting ambitious targets like those in the GND proposals. • Once we are clear about the scale of the challenge, October 8, 2018 and about what existing policies have delivered, it’s clear that public ownership is the only way.
Renewable energy is being deployed at impressive levels… Net capacity added in main generation technologies, 2009-2019 (GW) Source: UNEP / BloombergNEF
… but its contribution to overall energy use is still marginal… Total energy supply (Mtoe), 2010-2018 Source: WEF, The Speed of the Energy Transition: Gradual or Rapid Change? (2019)
… including in electricity generation.
“Despite the extraordinary growth in renewables in recent years… there has been almost no improvement in the power sector fuel mix over the past 20 years…. “I had no idea that so little progress had been made until I looked at these data.” — Spencer Dale, Chief Economist June 2018 Photo: BP
What Went Wrong? “Green growth” climate policy is anchored in two main mechanisms: 1. “Sticks”: Carbon pricing (taxes, cap & trade) — based on “Polluter Pays” 2. “Carrots”: Subsidies, incentives, guarantees
“Sticks”: Carbon pricing As of 2016, only 15% of global emission have a price. Source: World Bank, 2016
“Action on carbon pricing is nowhere near where it should be: it still covers only a small part of global emissions at prices too low to significantly reduce emissions.”
“Despite numerous pricing initiatives at the national and sub-national level discussed in this report, the global average carbon price is still only $2 per ton, a tiny fraction of what is needed for meaningful action.”
“Carrots”: Subsidies Germany’s “Solar Miracle” 38 GW of solar installed • (residential, cooperatives) “German Solar Feed-in Tariffs Wildly Successful, says New SEIA Report”
Who paid the subsidies? • “Around € 40 billion of the interventions are paid directly by energy consumers in the form of levies.” — European Commission report 2012 • In 2014, FiTs accounted for nearly a quarter of German electricity bills for non-commercial customers. • In 2016, Germany spent € 25 billion, with € 23 billion passed on directly to consumers through electricity bills.
“Carrots 2.0”: Competitive Bidding Energy markets with tendering or auction schemes in place, under discussion, or in planning stages, Q2 2017 • 48 countries have adopted auctions • 27 countries considering it. Source: GTM Research
Competitive bidding drives down costs… Average solar auction prices, Jan 2010-Sep 2016 * Downward pressure can also lead to “dive bidding.” Source: IRENA 2017
But also profit margins, leading to collapse in investment
Globally, investment in RE has fallen to worrying levels New investment in clean energy: China is 40% of total
October 8, 2018
“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society”: land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. October 8, 2018
Power Sector • Largest contributor to emissions. • The power sector is key to decarbonization, since decarbonization of other sectors will depend heavily on electrification. • This means that demand for electricity will increase substantially. • Emissions from the power sector depend on the source fuel: “electrification” on its own (e.g., of vehicles) means little.
Global GHG Emissions by Sector (2015) Globally roughly a quarter of GHG emissions are from the power sector.
US GHG Emissions by sector (2017) In the US, 28%
“Aggressive climate policies with 2030 targets will require more capacity to be built every single year over the next 11 years than what has been installed collectively over the past two decades.”
Buildings are responsible for nearly 40% of annual global emissions.
Global building stock is expected to roughly double in area by 2060.
Example: UK home retrofits
“Essentially every home in the UK will need to be retrofitted between now and 2050 — around 26 million in total.” What does this mean? • nearly a million homes each year • over 15,000 / week • over 3,000 / working day • nearly 400 / working hour… … for 30 years.
“Replace all mobile homes with zero-energy modular homes” There are currently ~20M mobile homes in the US. So, the Sanders commitment means replacing: • ~2 million mobile homes each year • nearly 40,000 / week • nearly 1,000 / working hour … for 10 years.
“If you cannot tackle transportation, you cannot tackle climate change.” — Yvo de Boer, former Executive Secretary, UNFCCC
Global GHG Emissions by Sector (2015) • Globally, transport accounts for roughly 14% of total emissions from human sources (nearly a quarter of emissions from energy).
US GHG Emissions by sector (2017) In the US, transport accounts for nearly one third of emissions.
May 2019 THE ROAD LESS TRAVELLED: Reclaiming Public Transport for Climate-Ready Mobility
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