The Great Crime Spike of 2016 What Does It Tell Us? Wesley G. Skogan Institute for Policy Research Northwestern University
Al Capone Era
1. Violent Crime Spiked Trends in Murder 2010-Latest 100 95/month + 42% Trends in Shootings 80 + 43% 400 persons wounded or killed 360/month 60 number 300 40 2016 2017 number 20 200 monthly 2016 0 2017 Jan 2010 July 2010 Jan 2011 July 2011 Jan 2012 Julu 2012 Jan 2013 July 2013 Jan 2014 July 2014 Jan 2015 July 2015 Jan 2016 July 2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 100 burglary & auto theft 3000 2500 monthly burglary 0 2000 Jan 2010 July 2010 Jan 2011 July 2011 Jan 2012 Julu 2012 Jan 2013 July 2013 Jan 2014 July 2014 Jan 2015 July 2015 Jan 2016 July 2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 2016 number 1500 1000 auto theft 500 monthly 0 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017
2. The Spike Is Gun Violence Gun and Non-gun Murders 2010-Latest gun 80 number per month 60 40 20 non-gun 0 J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J a u a u a u a u a u a u a u a u n l n l n l n l n l n l n l n l y y y y y y y y 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 0 3 4 5 6 7
2. The Spike Is Gun Violence Plus (not shown) modest increases in weapon caliber and percent of shootings that are fatal.
3. Gun Crime Is Extremely Concentrated 50% of all shootings in 2016 Percent of Shootings Concentrated in Top 5% and 10% of Areas 216 groups 60 top 10% 50 108 groups Austin percent top 5% 40 Humboldt Pk East Garfield Pk 30 West Garfield Pk 20 North Lawndale 10 South Lawndale 2,173 Chicago block groups 0 New City 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Englewood Gr. Grand Crossing “Five neighborhoods in Chicago explain 10 percent of the national increase in homicide rates.” Roseland West Pullman -- Brennan Center Riverdale
4. Trends Driven by Conditions in the African American Community MurderTrend 0.8 by predominant race of community 2016 1992 0.6 rate per 1,000 black 0.4 latino 0.2 diverse white 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5. We’re Not Catching Anybody and They Are The Spike EDITORIAL: In Chicago, people get away with murder. -- Chicago Tribune, 2016 Solving Murders Since 2010 80 Solving Shootings Since 2010 not solved 70 350 60 not solved number per month 300 50 number per month 250 40 200 30 solved 20 150 10 100 0 solved Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 50 0 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017
Some Implications of Not Solving Crimes The standard model of policing has collapsed Drive there fast and investigate à arrest, not working • Deterrence disappearing Certainly individual deterrence; probably general deterrence • You have to look out for yourself on the street; the cops can’t do it à Carry a gun – probably most gun carrying is defensive à More quickly resort to preemptive violence & retaliatory vengeance Not knowing “whodunit” makes it hard to discern “whydunnit” Makes it a murder mystery • This is especially true of a spike, which by its nature is a mystery •
Research on Solvability Incident factors • Location, time of day/night – visibility Weapon type; weapon recovered/ballistics • • Drug involvement = harder to solve Victim factors Relationship to offender: domestics, gangs, disputes • • Victim cooperation; fear retaliation; ability of police to keep them safe Experience with police; cynicism about justice system • Involvement in criminality • Community factors “Code of the street” – mind own business; don’t snitch; watch own back; resignation • Neighborhood social cohesion, collective efficacy, cooperation, stability, homogeneity • • Cooperation by witnesses & bystanders, family members; fear of retaliation Related to legitimacy crisis and breakdown in trust • Law enforcement factors (most sure about these) • Quality & quantity of investigations, lab and ballistics work Case management; triage procedures • • Staffing level - to interview, cultivate informants, check records, tie cases together Actions of first responders – secure the scene, identify bystanders, engage families and friends • A “heater” case? – motivating detectives, resources assigned •
In Summary It was a “Heck of a Spike.” Spike broadly confined to gun violence and related offenses • Spike was general, but large numbers in African American areas • Events there drove city-wide spike • Violence very concentrated; stable over 25 years. Spike was in the usual areas of concentration • These are the leverage points Somebody is getting away with murder. Most violent crime going unsolved • Spike was driven by unsolved gun crime • Implications of unsolved violence troublesome •
Spike’s Future? Spike may be going away! • But that would not be “problem solved” • shooting spikes 2016 & 2017 400 2016 number per month 300 200 2017 100 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12
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