The Future of Freight and the Economy of Alberta David B. Layzell, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Future of Freight and the Economy of Alberta David B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC. Co-founder & Research Director, The Transition Accelerator Professor & Director, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB E: dlayzell@ucalgary.ca; W: www.cesarnet.ca

q Charitable, non-profit organization (2019) About the q Accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy Accelerator q Pan-Canadian, supporting sectoral & regional solutions Support for Accelerator Initiatives Sponsors Jarislowsky EMISSIONS REDUCTION Foundation ALBERTA

The Accelerator’s Approach to A the Climate Change Challenge

1. R EC 1. ECOGNIZE TH THAT Canada’s GHG Challenge T RAN RMATIVE C HA RANSFORM HANG NGES 800 ARE N EED ED : ARE EEDED …in our fundamental 600 socio-technical systems: Mt CO 2 e/yr Ø Personal mobility 400 Ø Goods movement Ø How we live 200 Ø What we eat Ø Industrial processes 0 2030 2020 2040 1990 2000 2050 2010

2. A DM 2. THAT C LI DMIT TH LIMATE A CT IS N OT CTION IS OT C OM OMPELLING : Many – perhaps most – Canadians do not see climate change as a suffici su ciently co compelling reason to make major changes in our human systems. …especially if there is a perceived cost.

3. 3. W E MU MUST MA MAKE TH THE Ludicrous? P RO ROBLEM B IG IGGER : …Isn’t the climate change …expand the problem problem big enough? space to include issues that are compelling to Canadians because …we have precedents: solutions offer: q More convenience; q International trade agreements; q Lower costs; q Collective bargaining; q Greater comfort; q … q Improved health; q Higher quality of life.

3 A . E . E XA XAMPLE : P ER ERSONAL M OB OBILITY Other, more compelling What if there were highly reasons for transformative compelling technology, business systems change: model or social innovations that could address these challenges q Accidents AND radically reduce GHG q Congestion emissions? q Air pollution q High cost of vehicle [There may be…] ownership q Parking q Urban Sprawl

4. I DE 4. DENTIFY T RA RANS NSITION P AT ATHWAYS : Transition Pathways are about linking the vision of where people want to go (the destination) with the course required to get there, …and embedding decarbonization into that journey.

4 A . R . R EQ EQUI UIREM EMEN ENTS OF OF A X Longer term Target T RAN RANSITION P AT ATHWAY Alternative Pathway 1.CR 1. CRED EDIBLE E (Technically, economically, socially) 2.CO 2. COMPEL ELLING (Desired ’False’ Interim X by key stakeholders) y Target a Target w h Dead t a P e l b end a p a C pathway 3. 3. CAPABLE of achieving We are the target(s). here

Id Identif tify a a s share red destination de Chart the Ch e pathway & as assign respo ponsibilities Understand Un wh where we are now w Know the tools we Kn have avai ha ailab able

T HE HE A CCEL ERATOR ’ S M ET AND S TRA CCELER ETHODOLOGY AN TRATE TEGY 1. Understand the system • It has to be about more than just GHGs needing transformation; • Includes strengths, weaknesses & forces for change 2. Codevelop shared vision(s) • Innovative industry, gov’t, academic & societal players and possible pathway(s); • Vision includes GHG management + other needs iterative • Techno-economic and environmental assessment 3. Analyze to select and • Pathways must be CREDIBLE (technically, ecpnomically, socially), improve pathway(s); COMPELLING (to key stakeholders) & CAPABLE (of achieving goal) 4. Advance by starting the • Identify RD&D needs, inform decision makers • Spin-off industry-led Consortia to pilot, demonstrate, journey. commercialize

The Future of Freight and the B Alberta Economy

T HE HE R OA OAD F RE REIGHT S ECT ECTOR T OD ODAY : q High GHG emissions q Air pollution q Facing a labour shortage q Low margins q Sub-optimal load management (empty km) q Congestion & accidents q High cost of diesel engine maintenance The industry wants change and is interested in innovative ideas.

E ME NG T EC OGY , B , B US USINESS M OD EL , , MERGING ECHNOL OLOG ODEL P OL ICY & S & S OC IAL I NNO NS … OLIC OCIA NNOVATIONS e e c c r r e e m m Ph Physical Internet m m o o C C - - E E Autonomous, Connected Trucks Au U U b b e e r r F F r r e e i i g g h h t t Ba Battle e of the e Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric (HFCE) Battery Electric (BE) El Electric Trucks Nikola Tesla What are the implications for the freight sector and the province?

B AN ON I NT RNAL C OM ON E NG ANS ON NTERNA OMBUSTION NGINE NES (17 17 countries & 17 17 regions to date) Given the Taiwan importance of Netherlands Germany China Countries diesel to Alberta, Denmark Israel France @ Norway India Norway England we need a Ireland Sweden Wales ‘Plan B’ N Ireland Today @ Costa Scotland Rica 2020 2030 2040 2050 Rome* Regions Key British New Vehicles only Heidelberg Athens Mexico City Columbia Imported vehicles London Auckland Paris Athens* Los Angeles All Vehicles Barcelona Quito Madrid* Madrid * Diesel only Cape Town Rome Mexico City* Milan Copenhagen @ start phaseout Seattle Vancouver Data from https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Survey-on-Global-Activities-to-Phase-Out-ICE-Vehicles-FINAL-Oct-3-2018.pdf

D IE FROM A LBE LBERTA O IL : S : Supplie ies 9 s 9X m more re t than t that u use sed in in A Alberta IESEL FR IL 10 300 B. Demand for A. Alberta Crude Production and Refining C. Alberta Diesel Use Diesel from AB Crude Other Fuel Input 90 8 Conversion Other Other Feedstock Loss 2,000 Uses Kinetic Energy (PJ/year) 200 Other RPP 6 Passeng Dilbit PJ/year 60 er Oth. EJ/year Aviation Fuel PJ/year Freight Other 9x Oth. Road 4 Gasoline 1,000 Transport Freight Synbit 100 fuels = 77% 30 of all RPPS SCO 2 HDV Diesel Heavy Albert 1x Light/Med a 0 0 0 0 Total Diesel AB Diesel Alberta Crude RPP from Diesel Demand AB Diesel Use AB Crude Refinery RPP from Refinery Oil Production Input Alberta Oil Demand Demand Production Input AB oil

E LE OF A N I DE DEAL ‘P ‘P LA LAN B’ B’ FO THE ‘F ‘F UT OF F RE REIGHT ’ ’ LEMENTS OF FOR TH UTUR URE OF q A transformed, more competitive freight transportation sector: Ø More efficient, fewer empty km, better asset use; Ø Reduce or eliminate labour shortages; Ø Fewer Accidents, less congestion Ø Zero-emission fuels (with air pollution and GHG benefits) providing equal or better vehicle performance. q Alberta stays in the transportation fuel business: Ø Supplies the world with ~9X more zero-emission, diesel fuel alternative than that used in the province; Ø Benefits to the economic and jobs equal to, or greater than current Fossil Diesel – Internal Combustion Engine (FD-ICE) energy system

C OM OF F OS OSSIL D IE IESEL (F (FD-IC ICE) A ) A LT OMPARISON ON OF LTERNATIVES Performance Relative to the FD-ICE Bio-based Battery H 2 Fuel Cell Diesel Electric Electric For both the freight sector Power, Torque and the province, Fit for Freight Service Range & Fueling Time the H 2 fuel cell electric Tare Weight energy system Vehicle Cost supporting freight transport Maintenance Cost has the most promise. Fuel Cost Air Pollution Targets GHG Targets Good Resource Supply Ranking Fit for AB Similar C Mgmt Potential N/A N/A Poor Economic Potential Bad

T HE HE E CO CONOMIC O PPO FOR H YD IN A LB PPORTU TUNITY FO YDROGEN IN LBERTA H 2 is a value added commodity. . Per GJ, H 2 would sell for 3-10X the price of natural gas and crude oil. . Alberta’s NA Market for Diesel: q AB crude for diesel production: $18B/yr q H 2 equivalent: $56B/yr

H OW TO A DV DVANCE D EP THE H 2 E CO CONOMY E CO OW TO EPLOYMEN ENT OF OF THE COSYSTEM Phase 1: Demand Dev’t • Do the key stakeholders (e.g. trucking comp.) find the technology compelling? Phase 2: Supply Technol. • Can we provide distrib- uted, cost-effective H 2 with minimal emissions to grow demand? Phase 3: Infrastructure • Develop strategies and deploy the infrastructure for the efficient production & distribution of AB H 2 across N.A.

A N I NDU NDUSTRY -L ED ED , $ , $15M EMISSIONS C ON SORTIA S UP ONSOR UPPORTED ED BY BY REDUCTION E MI MISSIONS R ED EDUC UCTION ALBERTA A LB WITH $7 $7.3M 3M. LBER ERTA WI Project Lead:

FEATURES: Two H 2 Fuel Cell Electric Class 8 Trucks ü 700km Range ü Heavy Weight (63.5t) ü Zero Tailpipe Emissions Operated on AB Highways by AB Carriers ü Daily Trips Between Edmonton and Calgary Hydrogen Produced from AB natural gas ü Steam Methane Reformed (no C mgmt.) ü Cascade Refueling July 2019 – Dec 2020: Build vehicles Jan 2021 to June 2022: Test Vehicles Project Managed by Zen à 22

H YD YDROGEN F UEL UEL Build on Glider by: C EL ELL E LE LECTRIC IC H YB ID V EH YBRID EHICL CLE Ø ~100 kg of H 2 @ 350 bar / vehicle Ø PEM fuel cell power generation System to generate electricity from H 2 Ø Batteries for peak power, regenerative breaking, etc Ø Electric drive e-Axles Fuel cell, Ø Highly integrated design by: battery & control system Electric drive e-axles 23