The Federal Home Loan Bank CFA Society Dayton January 8, 2019 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Federal Home Loan Bank CFA Society Dayton January 8, 2019 Darren Kuntz Michael Spencer

FHLB Cincinnati Darren Kuntz Michael Spencer Darren Kuntz has worked in the banking industry since Michael Spencer has worked in the banking industry since 1995. His primary roles prior to joining the Federal Home 2009. His primary roles, prior to joining the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati focused on interest rate risk and Loan Bank, focused on the fixed income markets and fixed income portfolio management. Darren joined the interest rate risk. Michael joined the Federal Home Loan Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati in 2003 as an Bank in 2015 as a Financial Analyst in the Marketing Assistant Portfolio Manager in the Treasury department. department developing advanced level financial and In 2018, he was promoted to First Vice President, Assistant market for FHLB Members. In 2016, he was promoted to Treasurer and is responsible for balance sheet Insurance and Sales Officer. In his current role, Michael management. Darren received his Bachelor of Science in is the primary relationship manager for the FHLB Finance from Northern Kentucky University and a Master Insurance Company members assisting with funding of Business Administration from the University of strategies and balance sheet analytics. Michael received Cincinnati. his Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance from the University of Notre Dame. 2

Market Update

FOMC Projected Rate Increases • FOMC raised the Fed Funds Target Range 3 times in 2017, followed by 4 increases in 2018. • FOMC has only increased the Interest paid on Excess Reserves (IOER) by 20 basis points each of the past two interest rate increases – De-couples the top end of the Fed Funds Target Range from IOER – Effective Fed Funds Rate and IOER are converging – Effective Fed Funds Rate and IOER remain near the top of the Target Range. Federal Funds Fed Funds Futures Implied Rates Bottom of Taget Effective Rate IOER Top of Target 2.90% 3 2.80% 2.5 2.70% 2.60% 2 2.50% 1.5 2.40% 1 2.30% 0.5 2.20% 0 2.10% January-19 April-19 July-19 October-19 9/28/2018 12/31/2018 4

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet • Federal Reserve continues to reduce the size of its balance sheet by allowing Treasuries and Agency MBS to mature without reinvestment. • Over $400 Billion has matured since the beginning of 2016. • Combined with rate increases, FOMC is reducing accommodative monetary policy. Federal Reserve Total Assets $4,600 Billions $4,500 $4,400 $4,300 $4,200 $4,100 $4,000 $3,900 $3,800 1/4/2016 4/4/2016 7/4/2016 10/4/2016 1/4/2017 4/4/2017 7/4/2017 10/4/2017 1/4/2018 4/4/2018 7/4/2018 10/4/2018 5

Inflation In Line? • Inflation remains near FOMC’s target of 2.0%. • 5 year real yields moved into negative territory in 2010, remaining there for much of the next 5 years. • The 5 year real yield has been positive for all of 2018. 5 Year Real Yields 5Y T-note - 5Y TIP Implied Inflation 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 6

Inverted Yield Curve • Treasury Curve has recently inverted, a typical sign of an upcoming recession. • 5 year Treasury yield fell below 3 year Treasury yield in early December. It has since returned to higher level. • Spread between 10 year Treasuries and 2 year Treasuries has narrowed from over 50 basis points, to less than 20 basis points in the last 12 months. Treasury Yield Curve Yield Curve Steepness 2.80 4.00 3.50 2.60 3.00 2.40 Percentage Points 2.50 2.20 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.80 1.00 1.60 0.50 - 1.40 (0.50) 1.20 (1.00) 1.00 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y UST UST UST UST UST 12/31/2018 12/29/2017 12/30/2016 5Y UST - 2Y UST 10Y UST - 2Y UST 10Y UST - 3mL 7

Credit Stress Metrics • Investment grade spreads measure the difference between the yield on US Treasury bonds and debt of lesser quality such as corporate bonds. The IG CDS Index measures the cost of the credit default swaps on investment grade entities. • Investment grade spreads have widened materially from the start of the year driven by trade concerns, higher corporate leverage, a potential slowdown in global growth, and tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve • Investment grade spreads typically track stock market performance and are often viewed as a leading economic indicator. Investment Grade CDS Index 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1/4/2018 2/4/2018 3/4/2018 4/4/2018 5/4/2018 6/4/2018 7/4/2018 8/4/2018 9/4/2018 10/4/2018 11/4/2018 12/4/2018 8

Bank Asset Sensitivity

Net Interest Spread Analysis • Fifth District Bank and Thrift members remain asset sensitive, to a small degree. – Yield on earning assets has increased 36 basis points since the beginning of the change in monetary policy. – The cost of funds has risen 23 basis points over the same time period. – Result is Net Interest Spread increase of 13 basis points over the last 11 quarters. • Increase in spread of 13 basis points is significantly less than the over 200 basis points of short term rate increases pursued by the FOMC. • Short term liabilities (deposits) are repricing in line with long term assets (loans) muting the increase in Net Interest Spread – Flattening yield curve is detrimental to net interest spread. All Fifth District Banks and Thrifts 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Yield on Earning Assets Cost of Funds Net Interest Spread Fed Funds Target Range (Top) Banks, Thrifts, S&L Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Yld. on Earn. Assets 4.16% 4.17% 4.17% 4.14% 4.14% 4.21% 4.28% 4.30% 4.31% 4.42% 4.52% Cost of Funds 0.51% 0.51% 0.52% 0.51% 0.50% 0.52% 0.55% 0.57% 0.59% 0.65% 0.74% Net Int. Spread 3.65% 3.66% 3.65% 3.63% 3.63% 3.69% 3.73% 3.73% 3.72% 3.77% 3.78% 10

Net Interest Spread Drivers • Most asset yields are little changed over the last 11 quarters. – Yield on loans has risen 17 basis points during this time period, compared to Fed Funds increases of 200 basis points. – Yield on Securities has fallen 14 basis points since the FOMC began increasing the Fed Funds Target Range, and securities balances as a percentage of total assets has declined. – The increase in Net Interest Spread is being driven entirely by increased loan yields and volumes. • The cost of interest bearing deposits has increased 27 basis points over the trailing 11 quarters. • Deposit betas continue to lag the FOMC, but have increased rapidly in 2018, at times outpacing loan betas. All Fifth District Banks and Thrifts 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Yield on Loans Cost of Int. Bear. Dep. Yield on Securities Fed Funds Target Rate (Top) 11

LIBOR Reform

What is LIBOR? • LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) started In 1986 as a standardized rate for many types of financial instruments – Currently utilized for derivatives, business loans, securitizations, and • LIBOR is also the benchmark curve for debt issuance valuing the balance sheet – Intended to represent the rate at • Unregulated until September 2012 which banks can borrow money from each other (unsecured interbank – Now regulated by the Financial funding) Conduct Authority (FCA) in the U.K. – Administered by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) • Maturities from overnight to one year submitted by panel banks (approx. 20 of the largest banks in the world) • Approximately $200 trillion of global financial contracts are indexed to US Dollar LIBOR with $350 trillion in total contracts tied to LIBOR • FHLB Cincinnati issues Advances, purchases investments, executes derivatives, and issues debt indexed to LIBOR 13

Why is LIBOR being reformed? • LIBOR is becoming less relevant and trusted – Many contributing banks were found to have been manipulating LIBOR – Post crisis financial reform has decreased the amount of unsecured interbank funding (on which LIBOR is based) • Current overnight Fed fund market trading volume of $50 to $60 billion per day (down from $125 to $150 billion pre-crisis) • Banks are required to fund themselves with a larger portion of long-term debt – There is a material subjective component to daily LIBOR submissions • Alternatives have been developed that are gaining momentum Daily Fed Funds Volume 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 3/6/2016 6/6/2016 9/6/2016 12/6/2016 3/6/2017 6/6/2017 9/6/2017 12/6/2017 3/6/2018 6/6/2018 9/6/2018 12/6/2018 14

When is LIBOR being reform? • FCA (LIBOR regulator in U.K.) announced in July 2018 the potential to declare LIBOR unfit for use after 2021 – July 2017 FCA announced submitting panel banks will not be required to quote LIBOR past 2021 – Benchmark regulation in the E.U. requires a reference rate to be representative of the market • The capital markets will strongly influence the timing as robust alternative reference rate markets evolve (swaps, futures, debt etc.) 15