The Determinants of Youth Activity Status in Mexico City. A Mixed - PDF document

The Determinants of Youth Activity Status in Mexico City. A Mixed Methods Analysis Gabriela Sánchez-Soto Andrea Bautista León Department of Demography The University of Texas at San Antonio Contact: gabriela.sanchez-soto@utsa.edu Paper submitted for the 2017 International Population Conference, Cape Town, South Africa DRAFT: Please do not cite without authors’ permission Abstract Recently, the literature on youth in Mexico has focused the lack of educational and occupational opportunities as they transition from adolescence into adulthood. A concern is the increasing proportion of youth who are not in school or work. This group is known as “NINIs” (an abbreviation for “not studying, not working”). Despite increased public interest, little research has focused closely on this group. In this paper we describe the prevalence and determinants of being a NINI in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area using data on youth ages 18 to 25 from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, and data from 40 in-depth interviews collected in 2015-2016. Findings show that NINIs are more likely to be children or spouses of the householder, to come from households where the head is more educated, and to be more educated males or less educated females. Among the college educated there is a bifurcated path, where some are more likely to be NINIs while others to be full-time students. Overall, youth in more disadvantaged households are more likely to work full-time. Our qualitative evidence provides some nuance to understanding the barriers to school and work, and supports our quantitative analysis. NINIs are inactive when work opportunities are scarce or while they try to gain admission to college. Barriers to employment relate to discrimination of less experienced workers and the undesirability of low-wage employment. Barriers to school relate to an inability of universities to absorb most applicants and to a mismatch between school and vocation. Keywords: Children and Youth; education; inclusion and exclusion; Qualitative methodology; Quantitative methodology; 1

Introduction In recent years, the literature on the outcomes of youth in Mexico has focused on their activity status and the lack of educational and occupational opportunities as young people transition from adolescence into adulthood (Giorguli Saucedo 2009; International Labor Organization 2010; Pérez-Baleón 2012). A specific concern is the increasing proportion of young people who are not engaged in work or education. This group of young people is widely known among researchers, journalists and the general public in Mexico as “NINIs”, an abbreviation derived from the phrase “ ni estudia, ni trabaja” (which roughly translates into “not studying, not working”). Both popular culture and the media have shown great interest in NINIs, particularly focusing on their perceived unrealized potential and the consequences of their status for the future labor force in the country (Murayama 2010; Rosique Cañas 2013). Exact figures about NINIs in Mexico are hard to come by, but some estimates put them at around 7.8 million, or 22% of the population ages 12 to 29 (Negrete Prieto and Leyva Parra 2013; Rosique Cañas 2013). Existing estimations vary due to differences in the definition of work and education activities, and on whether they include informal and sporadic work, unpaid labor, or care and domestic activities (Leyva Parra and Negrete Prieto 2014). Besides the challenges in measurement and definition, little is still known about the determinants of becoming a NINI, and even less attention has been paid to their motivations, family life experiences, aspirations, and expectations for the future. Some explanations suggest that becoming a NINI is related to socioeconomic status and to the characteristics of the household of origin (Arceo-Gómez and Campos-Vázquez 2012; Murayama 2010; Rosique Cañas 2013). Others also consider this trend is a consequence of decreasing labor opportunities despite increased enrollment in high school and college across Mexico (Arceo-Gómez and Campos- 2

Vázquez 2012; Rosique Cañas 2013). Existing research suggests that the proportion of NINIs has been overestimated due to the assumption that NINIs are inactive or “do nothing” when many of them are actually engaged in unpaid housework or providing family care (Leyva Parra and Negrete Prieto 2014). These kinds of family obligations often go unrecognized and may be a barrier to schooling or to more traditional employment. In addition, it is likely that sporadic, informal and unpaid work has not been properly reflected in employment data available from quantitative surveys, so that participation of NINIs in productive activities may be underestimated. Given all this, our research has two specific aims. The first is to understand the prevalence of NINI status relative to other activities over the observation period and the characteristics of youth who fall into this category. Second, we explore the determinants of being a NINI versus engaging in work and schooling at the individual, household, and community levels. We use quantitative data from the Encuesta Nacional de Occupación y Empleo (ENOE, National Survey of Occupation and Employment) and data from in-depth interviews with NINIs we collected in Mexico City during 2015-2016. In combination, these data allow us to understand trends in the rates and determinants of youth activity, and the perceived barriers to occupation and employment among NINIs. Background and Previous Research According recent estimates from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Mexico occupies the fifth place among its member states in the proportion of NINIs. Close to 8 million Mexican youth are not working or attending school, which represents 22% of 15 to 29 year olds in the country, although only some of these declare themselves to be 3

unemployed, 19% of youth are not actively looking for a job and are detached from the labor market altogether (OECD 2016). The presence of NINIs in popular culture goes beyond academics and newscasters, the acronym has made it into colloquial language as a short-hand for youth’s inability to fulfill their potential, which is often perceived to be due to their lack of motivation and their disregard for hard-work. A quick review of national and regional news media shows an increase in usage and awareness during the last decade. The rhetoric goes from alarmist news that speak of NINIs as a “lost generation,” of how NINIs are stopping the progress of the country, and how their laziness stifles their potential –and the demographic dividend for Mexico. The public discourse centers on the waste of human capital that inactivity status represents (Murayama 2010; Zepeda 2013). Other more measured media speaks of NINIs as victims of their circumstances and of the structural disadvantages in the educational system and the labor market, and as a result of poor policy-making on the government’s part (Miranda 2015; Roldan 2016; Rosique Cañas 2013). More recent narratives are likely to see the issue as one derived from the increasing lack of educational and occupational opportunity in the country (Poy Solano 2010). Existing research on Mexican NINIs focuses on two main areas. The first focuses on discussions of definition and measurement, as well as prevalence in nationally representative data. For instance, Leyva and Negrete (2014), argue that the proportion of NINIs has been overestimated. The authors question the widespread assumption that NINIs are inactive or “doing nothing,” and they suggest many of the young people in this category are not attending school or working due to family and care commitments (Leyva Parra and Negrete Prieto 2014). In addition, it is likely that sporadic and unpaid work has not been properly reflected in employment data available from cross-sectional quantitative surveys, so that participation of 4