Monitoring Climate Change from Space COP21 Japan Pavilion, Dec. 4, 2015 The Arctic Sea Ice Monitoring and Climate Variation Hiroyuki Enomoto National Institute of Polar Research
Background • Arctic warming rate is twice faster than other regions. • The enhanced change in the Arctic is called “Polar Amplification” of warming. No ｒｔｈ of ６０ N 2012 1980s Observed surface air temperature anomalies from the 1880-1890 mean, for each latitude bands, 9 year moving average (Shindell and Faluvegi, 2009). Sea ice area in September 2012 was nearly half of that in 1980s (JAXA-ADS).
“Polar Amplification” and “Feedbacks” in climate system • Arctic sea ice declining became drastic in 2000’s with the summer minimum record in 2012 (“Early Indicator”). • Arctic sea ice change is an results of warming, and at same time, sea ice is the cause of accelerating warming by “Ice albedo feedback”. Summer sea ice reflection atmosphere Insolation terrestrial sea ice area radiation Snow/ice Year Data: JMA
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Questions arise from Arctic and sea ice Why Arctic warming is so rapid? How sea ice is changing? What is the influence to various fielded of Arctic? How we can monitor, understand, respond to change? Atmosphere Ocean Terrestrial condition Cryosphere/hydrosphere change and Society
Snow cover Soil moisture AMSR-2 data products and visualization for Arctic study through ADS/GRENE Arctic Project, NIPR, JAXA https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-monitor.html
Seasonal cycle of sea ice Autumn Spring Large fluctuation
Summer Sea ice melting is strong air conditioner Warming is not apparent on this figure, however change is occurring in the other style. Summer temperature is very stable and homogeneous on sea ice Air Temperature (C) Temperature at North Pole Winter temperature is increasing Data:NCEP Month-year
Microwave suganal of melt water Sea ice: reflection of solar radiation Forming melt pond over sea ice Heat: ice melt, stored in open water…
Contribution of each processes to Arctic warming amplification Arctic amplification and feedback Summer Autumn -Warming is small in Heat & vapor release from Ice : Albedo Ocean+Cloud formation Jun.-Aug., when Arctic amplification index ( AAI ) solar radiation is CO 2 Positive Water vapor reflected by ice. Albedo Heat is absorbed in Cloud Surface evap. ocean. Large-scale condense. -The heat is released Cumulus Sens. heat + turbulent in Oct.-Dec. Negative Advection -Amplified warming Expanding open water=Ocean: Ocean heat content heat storage is maintained with cloud feedback. Month Yoshimori et al. (2014)
Sea ice seasonal cycle and satellite monitoring Decay: melting winter Opening Lead spring Snow cover River dicharge Mid-latitude weather, summer Open water, melt pond, Ice ice thickness conditions autumn Freezing, Growth Heat and water vapor, cloud Weather, Transport, Ocean environment
AMSR-E/AMSR2 thickness : every September 10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 Data: Tateyama Kitami Inst. Tech 。 Purple-pink: melt pond concentration Krishfield et al, 2014 Thinning of sea ice
Fragile ice : Thin ice and violent weather Reduction of sea ice in Reduction of sea ice in 2012.8.1-18 2012.8.1-18
New Arctic weather condition: Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC ) Wind, wave: Coastal and navigation safety, mixing (ocean), erosion(coast)
Sea ice seasonal cycle and satellite monitoring Decay: melting winter Opening Lead spring Snow cover River dicharge Mid-latitude weather, summer Open water, melt pond, Ice ice thickness conditions autumn Freezing, Growth Heat and water vapor, cloud Weather, Transport, Ocean environment
In situ freezing/sea ice dynamics Winter ice growth by dynamic condition, and forecast of summer sea ice Data: GCOM-W AMSR2 Winter ice motion for forecasting summer retreat GRENE Arctic project Univ. of Tokyo Group N. Kimura and H. Yamahguchi Yamaguchi lab. Univ of Tokyo http://www.1.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YKWP/2015arctic.html Thin / thick ice Dynamic conditions
Winter sea ice coverage, thickness, movement Changing winter sea ice conditions 2013.03.04 & 02.18NOAA Data: GCOM-W AMSR2 Frequent opening/ridging Water vapor and heat releases Summer ice prediction
1979 2014 Sea I ce Decrease in winter Snow and cold air to Cold and snow in mid-latitudes as extreme weather . the Mid-latitudes
Concluding remarks Satellite observation and advance of analyzing technology provide new understanding of Arctic: Arctic warming 2011-2015 (MEXT, Japan) Polar Amplification, Ice albedo feed back Ice reduction: more open water, heat + water cycle snow ocean, cloud, cyclone, atmospheric circulation, snow Application to Society Weather, Mid-latitude connection, Environment, Coastal safety, Transport and industry From observation and understanding, Japanese new project ArCS (2015-20) aims to provide scientific information for Arctic environment and sustainable development ,and global role 2015-2020 (MEXT, Japan)
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