The 20 20 th th AIM Internat nation ional al Works kshop hop Thailand NAMA Roadmap INDC and Peak CO 2 Scenarios in 2050 NIES January 23, 2015 Bundit Limmeechokchai Sujeetha Selvakkumaran & Chontichaprin Nithitsuttibuta Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University
1 st LCS Scenario by AIM/ExSS, 2010 2 nd LCS Roadmap by AIM/Enduse, 2013 SIIT-TU 2
Role of IAM Thailand NAMA domestic discussion I. Review, Analyze III. Consultation and II. AIM/Enduse and mitigation potentials NAMA preparation Thailand’s NAMA Multi-benefit analyses contributions • Stakeholders • AIM Modeling Energy • Review of UNFCCC and Involvement Result From Model Thailand CDM and • Thailand’s NAMA (Energy Consumption, CO 2 Pre2020 Mitigation Emission, Abatement Costs) Readiness and GHG Mitigation • Status/Readiness of Contributions Potential Thailand for NAMA contributions • Pre2020 Assessment • Countermeasures/Priority (Cost Effectiveness, Co-benefit, Energy Security) areas of NAMA NCCC & Gov’t Policy measures for Contributions NAMA agreement Decision 3
Thailand CO 2 emissions by sectors in 2000 Source: Thailand’s Second National Communication, (ONEP, 2011) 4
Methodology (NAMA Roadmap) AIM/Enduse SIIT-TU 5
National Circumstance 2005-2050 Population & GDP 2005 2010 2020 2030 2050 Population (thousand person) 62,418 1 63,878 67,064 70,549 2 70,062 3 169,870 258,376 392,159 578,149 GDP (million USD) 4 985,001 Industry 60,094 94,750 143,810 212,016 361,215 Transportation 14,328 22,981 34,882 51,425 87,614 Commercial 76,297 113,569 172,372 254,122 432,950 Residential 198 258 391 576 980 Agriculture 13,785 18,430 27,973 41,240 70,264 Electricity 5,168 8,389 12,731 18,769 31,978 1 The historical data retrieved from Office of the National Economic and Social Remark: Development Board (NESDB), Thailand with an annual average annual growth rate of 0.46% during 2005-2010. 2 The population forecasted with an annual average growth rate of 0.5% during 2010-2030. 3 World Population Prospects: The 2012 revision, United Nation. An annual average growth rate is -0.04% during 2030-2050. 4 National Income of Thailand 2012, chain volume measure. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Thailand.
Energy sources Conversion Transportation Electric generation T & D Demand Tech Service demand Thailand‘s RES 7 7
Thailand’s Low Emission Policy: The Ambitious Target 1. Renewable Electricity (AEDP, +25%RE in 2021) 2. Energy Efficiency (EEDP, -25%EI in 2030) 3. Environmental Sustainable Transport System 8
Potential of CO 2 Mitigation in Thailand NAMA 2020 9
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In accordance with the provisions of Article 12 paragraph 1 (b), Article 12 paragraph 4 and Article 10 paragraph 2 (a), I have the honor to communicate to you the information on Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), for information to the UNFCCC Parties, as follows: Thailand will, on a voluntary basis , reduce its GHG emissions in the range of 7%-20% below the business as usual (BAU) in 2020 , with subject to the level of international supports provided in the form of technology, finance, and capacity building for NAMAs preparation and implementation. The above-mentioned NAMAs will include counter-measures, as following: • Renewable energy • Energy efficiency improvement in industries, buildings and transportation; • Bio-fuels in transportation • Environmentally sustainable transport system. Please note that the communicated information on NAMAs as announced will not have a legally binding character, and will be implemented in accordance with the principles and provisions of the UNFCCC, in particular Article 4 paragraph 7, and taking into account the national circumstances. 11
– – – – – – – – Successful Application of IAM to Thailand NAMAs – – • Abatement costs of actions are also identified across the sectors. • Co-benefits of NAMAs are also assessed, and they reveal positive – – aspects of GHG mitigation under NAMA framework (TGO, 2012) – • The MRV process of these NAMAs needs cooperation among related ministries. Heating CHP (65 Mt-CO 2 ) Heating CCS (47.5 Mt- Efficient Heating device (3.8 Mt- CO 2 ) CO 2 ) Heating advanced New Biomass (85 Mt- devices (1.9 CO 2 ) Mt-CO 2 ) Advanced Electrical Efficient devices (4.4 Mt-CO 2 ) Electrical devices (15.5 Mt-CO 2 ) 12
Roadmap to Thailand NAMAs 2020 (8 Oct 2014) 13
CO 2 Emissions in the BAU and Thailand NAMA7% in 2020 CO 2 emissions (kt-CO 2 ) 400,000 360 Mt 350,000 BAU 300,000 7% or 25 Mt 250,000 Recent Assessment with MRV in 2014 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ONEP (2014) SIIT-TU 14
Estimated CO 2 Reduction by RE Electricity in RE Plan CO 2 Reduction (kt-CO 2 ) AEDP25% Actual Forecast 30,000 25,585 Forecasted 25,000 23,491 CO2 Reduction (kt-CO 2 ) 21,335 19,458 20,000 17,300 17,579 15,847 14,132 15,000 12,412 10,705 10,000 8,906 7,095 5,000 0 2554 2555 2556 2557 2558 2559 2560 2561 2562 2563 2564 (2011) (2012) (2013) (2014) (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) (2020) (2021) Source: ONEP (2014)
Estimated CO 2 Reduction by Bio-oil in RE Plan kt-CO 2 AEDP25% Actual Forecast 7,000 6,199 Forecasted 6,000 5,263 5,450 CO2 Reduction (kt-CO2) 5,204 5,000 4,603 4,869 4,899 3,657 4,061 4,000 3,431 3,200 3,000 2,000 1,596 1,000 - 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 2557 2558 2559 2560 2561 2562 2563 2564 (2007) (2008) (2009) (2010) (2011) (2012) (2013) (2014) (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) (2020) (2021) Source: ONEP (2014)
Estimated CO 2 Reduction by Ethanol in RE Plan AEDP25% Actual Forecast 8,000 7,166 7,000 Forecasted CO2 Reduction (kt-CO2) 6,000 5,176 5,000 3,981 4,000 3,500 1,433 1,672 1,831 2,070 2,389 2,707 3,185 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2548 2550 2552 2554 2556 2558 2560 2562 2564 (2005) (2007) (2009) (2011) (2013) (2015) (2017) (2019) (2021) Source: ONEP (2014)
Roadmap to Thailand NAMAs 2020 NAMAs Potential of Roadmap 2020 PLAN Action CO 2 Reduction 7% 20% (kt-CO 2 ) Renewable electricity 17,266 Ethanol in Gasohol 3,517 Plan 1 Bio-oil in Biodiesel 3,194 Repowering (EGAT) 960 Industry 26,006 Buildings 14,474 Plan 2 Household 8,800 Transport 7,529 Power Sector 35,716 Transportation (Rail system ) Plan 3 12,000 Total Estimated CO 2 Reduction (Mt-CO 2 ) 25 75 Source: ONEP (2014) = CO 2 countermeasures with high quality MRV (confirmed) = Proposed CO 2 countermeasures in the Lists by ONEP
Robust Roadmap to Thailand NAMAs 2020 Transport sector Industry Power sector Renewable Residential Buildings SIIT-TU 19
Cumulative 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CO 2 reduction (kt-CO 2 ) R e n e w a b le e n e r g y 81,037 9,747 11,250 12,754 14,258 15,762 17,266 G a s o h o l 2,058 2,322 2,600 2,892 3,197 3,517 16,586 7% 7% Biodiesel 2,879 2,952 3,019 3,082 3,139 3,194 18,265 Repowering by EGAT 320 400 480 640 800 960 3,600 EE Air Condition 6,054 6,805 7,623 8,512 9,477 10,543 49,014 NAMA - Efficient cooling (Fan, AC with COP-6, Refrigerator with COP-6) Building NAMA 2,927 3,490 4,104 4,751 5,385 5,981 26,638 - T5 lamp - LED lamp - Efficient cooking (Gas stove) - Efficient office equipments Transport sector 2,810 3,329 4,048 4,978 6,134 7,529 28,828 - Efficient technology - Efficient truck - Truck: Hybrid (E10, E20, E85, B5, (E20, E85 and B5) (DSL) LPG and CNG) - Hybrid (GSL and DSL) Other 275,442 22,986 30,097 39,656 49,547 60,627 72,529 13% - Efficient heating - Efficient heating - Advanced cooling >13% (Biomass) (Coal, LPG, NG and - Advanced lighting - Advanced heating Oil) - Advanced (Biomass) - Advanced heating motoring - Efficient cooking (Coal, LPG, NG and (Rice cooker, Electric Oil) pan, Charcoal, Fuel - Efficient cooling wood and LPG - Efficient lighting stoves) - Efficient motoring - Efficient heating (Electric pot, Iron and Electric water heater) - Combined cycle - Gas turbine - Thermal (NG, Lignite and Coal) - Cogeneration - Other Transportation 12,000 plan by OTP RAC NAMA RAC 1,624 (Source: ONEP and GIZ) Annual CO 2 49,781 60,645 74,284 88,660 104,521 reduction 73,000 20 (kt-CO 2 ) Source: ONEP (2014)
NAMAs in Thailand Biennial Updated Report (BUR1) BUR1 to UNFCCC Thailand’s NAMAs 2020 Source: ONEP (2014) 21
Barriers in Energy Efficiency (EE Building NAMA) Barriers to overcome EE in buildings (Asayama,2014): 1. No enforcement of implementation to achieve the target under ECP Act and EEDP. 2. No minimum energy performance standards for both new and existing buildings. 3. BEC has not been implemented yet due to the technical and institutional barriers. 4. No inspection system during/after construction. 5. No benchmark of energy consumption in buildings. 6. Limited information on EE technologies. 7. Limited human resources and capacity in MRV. 8. Limited incentives to EE. 22
Thailand’s Post 2020 Scenarios Low Emission Pathway and Peak Emission Scenarios 2050BAU 30% 2050LCS 20% Peak CO 2
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