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November 21, 2016 TFG Presentation Review of 2016 Elections and the Lame Duck Session www.thefergusongroup.com Overview 2016 Elections The Administration The House The Senate Congressional Leadership and Committee Races

  1. November 21, 2016 TFG Presentation Review of 2016 Elections and the Lame Duck Session www.thefergusongroup.com

  2. Overview • 2016 Elections – The Administration – The House – The Senate – Congressional Leadership and Committee Races • Lame Duck Session – Appropriations – National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) – 21 st Century Cures Act – Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) Wildcards • Energy Policy Modernization Act • U.S. Postal Service overhaul legislation • Child nutrition reauthorization

  3. The Administration 232 306 Source: Bloomberg Government

  4. The Administration • 45 th President of U.S.: Donald J. Trump – Electoral Count: 306 – 232 – Did not win popular vote • Hillary Clinton now the fifth U.S. presidential candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election • Inauguration Day: January 20, 2017 • Transition team has been working for several months to ensure smooth succession of power

  5. Key Transition Milestones Source: “Presidential Transition Guide.” Partnership for Public Service’s Center for Presidential Transition.

  6. The Administration • 2018 Budget Request – By law, President’s Budget must be submitted by first Monday of February (Feb. 6.) – Past three outgoing administrations submitted transition budgets to Congress to help with next budget submission – Past several administrations have not met the February statutory budget submission deadline – Budget usually not late enough to cause significant delays in appropriations process

  7. The Administration • Executive Branch Appointments – Responsible for making 4,000 appointments to Executive Branch – Much speculation about appointments for key positions; only a few official announcements: • Attorney General: Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) • CIA Director: Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-KS) • W.H. Chief of Staff: Reince Priebus (RNC Chair) • W.H. Senior Counsel, Chief Strategist: Stephen Bannon • National Security Advisor: Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn

  8. The Administration • First 100 Days – Plan can be separated into two parts: 1. 18 measures Trump would address on Day 1, many through executive actions, including: – Proposal to term-limit Members of Congress – Remove restrictions on domestic oil and natural gas production – Renegotiation or withdraw from NAFTA – Requirement that for every new regulation two must be eliminated 2. 10 legislative proposals Trump said he would introduce to Congress and pass within the first 100 days, including: – Tax reform plan – U.S. – Mexico border wall – Repeal and replace Affordable Care Act – Illegal immigration plan – $1 trillion infrastructure plan – “Drain the swamp” reforms

  9. The House 194 Source: Bloomberg Government

  10. The House • Of the 388 House incumbents running for re- election, only 8 were defeated (6 Republicans and 2 Democrats) • 55 incoming freshman • Three outstanding races: – Not called: • CA (49): Darrell Issa (R-incumbent) v. Doug Applegate (D) – Runoffs (Elections to be held Dec. 10) • LA (3): Clay Higgins (R) v. Scott Angelle (R) • LA (4): Marshall Jones (D) v. Mike Johnson (R)

  11. The House • Republican Leadership GOP leaders were elected unanimously on November 15 – Speaker: Paul Ryan (WI) – Majority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (CA) – Whip: Steve Scalise (LA) • Democratic Leadership – Democratic leadership elections have been delayed until the week of Nov. 30 – Rep. Tim Ryan (OH) is officially challenging current Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (CA) for the Minority Leader position • Republican and Democratic steering committees will meet in December to make committee leadership and membership selections

  12. The House 114 th Congress Chairman Likely 115 th Chairman 114 th Ranking Member Likely 115 th Ranking Member Committee Agriculture Michael Conaway (TX) same Collin Peterson (MN) same Appropriations Hal Rogers (KY) – term-limited Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) Nita Lowey (NY) same Armed Services Mac Thornberry (TX) same Adam Smith (WA) same Budget Tom Price (GA) same Chris Van Hollen (MD) John Yarmuth (KY) Education and the Workforce John Kline (MN) – retiring Virginia Foxx (NC) Bobby Scott (VA) same John Shimkus (IL) or Greg Walden Energy and Commerce Fred Upton (MI) – term-limited Frank Pallone (NJ) same (OR) Ethics Charlie Dent (PA) same Linda Sanchez (CA) same Financial Services Jeb Hensarling (TX) same Maxine Waters (CA) same Foreign Affairs Ed Royce (CA) same Eliot Engel (NY) same Homeland Security Michael McCaul (TX) same Bennie Thompson (MS) same Intelligence Devin Nunes (CA) same Adam Schiff (CA) same Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (VA) same John Conyers (MI) same Natural Resources Rob Bishop (UT) same Raul Grijalva (AZ) same Oversight and Government Jason Chaffetz (UT) same Elijah Cummings (MD) same Reform Rules Pete Sessions (TX) same Louise Slaughter (NY) same Science, Space and Technology Lamar Smith (TX) same Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX) same Small Business Steve Chabot (OH) same Nydia Velazquez (NY) same Transportation and Bill Shuster (PA) same Peter DeFazio (OR) same Infrastructure Gus Bilirakis (FL), Mike Coffman Jeff Miller (FL) – term-limited & (CO), Veterans’ Affairs Mark Takano (CA) same retiring Doug Lamborn (CO) or Phil Roe (TN) Ways and Means Kevin Brady (TX) same Sander Levin (MI) same

  13. The Senate Source: Bloomberg Government

  14. The Senate

  15. The Senate Republicans retained control of Senate but lost several seats • • Senate currently has 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats – after November 8, Republicans are set to control at least 51 seats while Democrats will hold at least 48 (one runoff election in LA – Dec. 10) Republican majority still remains below 60-vote threshold needed to • overcome a filibuster • New Senators – Kamala Harris (D-CA), replacing Senator Barbara Boxer (D) – Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), current House Representative for the 8th district, defeated current Senator Mark Kirk (R) – Todd Young (R-IN), current House Representative for the 9th district, replacing Senator Dan Coats (R) – Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), current House Representative for the 8th district, replacing Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) – Catherine Cortez Mastro (D-NV), replacing Senator Harry Reid (D) – Maggie Hassan (D-NH), defeated current Senator Kelly Ayotte (R)

  16. The Senate • Republican Leadership GOP leaders were elected unanimously on November 16 – Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (KY) – Whip: John Cornyn (TX) • Democratic Leadership Democratic leaders were elected unanimously on November 16 – Minority Leader: Chuck Schumer (NY) – Whip: Richard Durbin (IL) • Democrats have made their selections for committee leadership positions. Republicans have yet to make their selections.

  17. The Senate 114 th Congress Chairman Likely 115 th Chairman 114 th Ranking Member 115 th Ranking Member Committee Aging Susan Collins (ME) same Claire McCaskill (MO) Bob Casey (PA) Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry Pat Roberts (KS) same Debbie Stabenow (MI) same Appropriations Thad Cochran (MS) same Barbara Mikulski (MD) – retiring Patrick Leahy (VT) Armed Services John McCain (AZ) same Jack Reed (RI) same Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Richard Shelby (AL) Mike Crapo (ID) Sherrod Brown (OH) same term-limited as chairman Budget Mike Enzi (WY) same Bernie Sanders (VT) same Commerce, Science & John Thune (SD) same Bill Nelson (FL) same Transportation Energy & Natural Resources Lisa Murkowski (AK) same Maria Cantwell (WA) same Jim Inhofe (OK) John Barrasso (WY) Environment and Public Works Barbara Boxer (CA) – retiring Tom Carper (DE) term-limited as chairman Ethics Johnny Isakson (GA) same Barbara Boxer (CA) – retiring Chris Coons (DE) Finance Orrin Hatch (UT) same Ron Wyden (OR) same Foreign Relations Bob Corker (TN) same Ben Cardin (MD) same Health, Education, Labor & Lamar Alexander (TN) same Patty Murray (WA) Same Pensions Homeland Security & Govt. Ron Johnson (WI) same Tom Carper (DE) Claire McCaskill (MO) Affairs Indian Affairs John Barrasso (WY) John Hoeven (ND) Jon Tester (MT) Tom Udall (NM) Intelligence Richard Burr (NC) same Diane Feinstein (CA) Mark Warner (VA) Judiciary Charles Grassley (IA) same Patrick Leahy (VT) Dianne Feinstein (CA) Rules and Administration Roy Blunt (MO) same Charles Schumer (NY) Amy Klobuchar (MN) Small Business & David Vitter (LA) – retiring Jim Risch (ID) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) same Entrepreneurship Veterans' Affairs Johnny Isakson (GA) same Richard Blumenthal (CT) Jon Tester (MT)

  18. Lame Duck Session • Appropriations – Current CR expires Dec. 9 – CR through March 31; expected to pass – Flint funding may be included to help move WRDA bill National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) • – Yearly authorization for defense programs 21 st Century Cures Act • – Biomedical research funding; may also include mental health funding Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) • – Expected to move but remains unclear whether clean water and drinking water provisions (included in Senate WRDA) will be in final bill Wildcards – Energy Policy Modernization Act – U.S. Postal Service overhaul legislation – Child nutrition reauthorization

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