Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and Transport Sectors Manmohan Kapshe, Satish Yawale Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India Aashish Deshpande National Institute of Technical Teachers' Training and Research, Bhopal, India 21 th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba Japan 13-14 November 2015

Presentation Sequence  Background  Residential and Transport Sectors  Modelling the Select Sectors  Scenario Definitions  Results and Findings Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Million Plus UAs/Cities India: 2011 53 Million Plus UAs/Cities in India with population of one million or more. In Census 2001 the number was 35. Mega UAs/Cities • Three megacities in India as per Census 2011 with 10 million or more population • These are: • Greater Mumbai UA 18.4 million • Delhi UA 16.3 million • Kolkata UA 14.1 million Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Age/Gender Profile Popul opulat ation i on in 1970 n 1970 Popul opulat ation P on Proj ojec ection f on for or 2010 2010 2010 1970 100+ 100+ 95-99 95- 99 100+ 100+ 90- 90-95 95 95-99 95- 99 85- 85-89 89 90- 90-95 95 80- 80-84 84 85- 85-89 89 75- 75-79 79 80- 80-84 84 70-74 70- 74 75- 75-79 79 70- 70-74 74 65-69 65- 69 65- 65-69 69 60- 60-64 64 Fem emal ale e 60-64 60- 64 55- 55-59 59 ge group oup Mal ale e 55-59 55- 59 ge group oup 50-54 50- 54 50-54 50- 54 Age gr Fem emal ale e 45-49 45- 49 Age gr Mal ale e 45-49 45- 49 40-44 40- 44 40- 40-44 44 35- 35-39 39 35-39 35- 39 30- 30-34 34 30-34 30- 34 25- 25-29 29 25-29 25- 29 20- 20-24 24 20-24 20- 24 15-19 15- 19 15- 15-19 19 10-14 10- 14 10- 10-14 14 5- 5-9 5- 5-9 0- 0-4 0- 0-4 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 Popul opulat ation ( on (million) on) Popul opulat ation ( on (million) on) Popul opulat ation P on Proj ojec ection f on for or 2050 2050 Popul opulat ation P on Proj ojec ection f on for or 2030 2030 2050 2030 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 95- 95-99 99 95-99 95- 99 90-95 90- 95 90-95 90- 95 85-89 85- 89 85- 85-89 89 80- 80-84 84 80-84 80- 84 Fem emal ale e 75-79 75- 79 75- 75-79 79 Mal ale e 70-74 70- 74 70-74 70- 74 Fem emal ale e 65- 65-69 69 65-69 65- 69 Mal ale e 60- 60-64 64 60-64 60- 64 oup ge group 55-59 55- 59 ge group oup 55- 55-59 59 50- 50-54 54 50- 50-54 54 Age gr 45-49 45- 49 Age gr 45-49 45- 49 40-44 40- 44 40- 40-44 44 35- 35-39 39 35-39 35- 39 30-34 30- 34 30-34 30- 34 25- 25-29 29 25- 25-29 29 20-24 20- 24 20- 20-24 24 15- 15-19 19 15-19 15- 19 10- 10-14 14 10-14 10- 14 5- 5-9 5-9 5- 0-4 0- 0-4 0- 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 Popul opulat ation ( on (million) on) Popul opulat ation ( on (million) on) Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Demographic trends and projections Share of Urban population Source: Census 2001 Million-plus Cities and Urban Agglomerations Growth of large cities in India Source: Mckinsey 2010 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

India’s commercial energy consumption Source: 1. IEA Statistics 2. Energy statistics 2013 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

GHG Emissions Source: MoEF 2010 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Population v/s Vehicle Growth Since 1981, the population of Bhopal has multiplied about 2.5 times and number of registered vehicles has increased 85 times. Of the 0.79 million registered vehicles in 2011, 92% are cars and two wheelers which accounts for 28% of modal share. Population growth (lakh nos) Vehicular growth (lakh nos) Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Transport Sector Issues Consequences…… 1. Rapid Growth of Travel • Congestion Demand 2. Insufficient Transport • Growth in number of Infrastructure vehicles • Limitation to road expansion Travel Demand • Pollution • Trip rate (per capita trip) • Accidents • Size of the population • Public Transport • Per capita income • Trip length Deterioration • City size and urban sprawl • Declining reliance on NMT Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Income and energy in Residential Sector Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Residential and Transport Characteristics 1. T e c hnology shift is swift Short Life span of technology Rapid advancement of new technology 2. Population inc r e ase 3. E ne r gy de mand inc r e asing POPULATION OF INDIA ACTUAL AND PROJECTED 1800 Passenger and freight kilometer 1600 Census(1952- Household 2011) POPULATION IN million 1400 4. E mission r e duc tion pote ntial Family size 1200 Census projection Introduction of efficient technology Income level (2011-2026) 1000 Multiple fuel options Household Appliance 800 UNPD HIGH(2000-2036) ….. 600 PFI(2000-2036) 400 200 5. Co be ne fits UN population 0 UNPD: United nations population Division PFI: Population foundation of India Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Some Important Questions 1. What drives energy demand and technology choices in Indian residential and transport sector? 2. What has been the technology profile and resulting energy and emission in these sectors? 3. How energy and emission trajectory is likely to change in future under different scenarios? 4. What is the role of clean/renewable energy technology in bringing out this change? Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Residential and Transport Energy Scenario • India has experienced many changes in energy consumption pattern in both residential and transport sector. This is because of following factors: – Population growth – Increase in economy and development • Electricity demand in the Indian household sector has also been growing at a very rapid rate over the last decades • There is a large variation in energy consumption across different sections of households like urban/rural, low/high income group • As the income of the people increases demand for personalized modes of transport is expected to increase more rapidly Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Associated Problems and Co-benefits • Local pollution is one of the serious problems faced by the people in the country. • Rapid population growth, industrialization and urbanization in country are adversely affecting the environment as • India’s two third of the population resides in rural areas and fuelwood and kerosene is the main fuel for cooking and lighting, both cause harm to the women cooking food in houses. • Due to increase in the number of vehicle, traffic congestion is a serious problem in most of the cities in India. Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Analysis Framework Local & Global ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT Environment Outcomes Model Concerns Analytical Climate change Tool Technology SOCIETY & Emissions options Population Socio-economic Life style change Energy Development Energy Type Sectoral Development Urbanization Emission Income Energy Mix Drivers Mitigation efforts Emission Technology mitigation ENERGY Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Modeling Framework Energy System Optimization (AIM/ENDUSE) Outcomes Technology mix Emission Demand Sectoral energy consumption projection Technology Share Industry Transport Agriculture Residential Commercial Cooking Lighting Passenger Freight travel Travel Cooling Other Electric end Heating use End use services Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Reference Energy Systems Two Wheeler Gasoline Three Wheeler Road Passenger kms Heavy Oil Four Wheeler Bus Diesel Road HCV Tons kms CNG LCV Bio-Diesel Rail Diesel train Passenger kms Electricity Electric Train Rail Air craft Tons kms Ship ATF Air Passenger kms Animal Cart Animal power Battery operated two Water Solar wheeler Tons kms Coal Battery operated four Water wheeler Passenger kms Steam Train Satish Yawale 093113201 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

LPG Stove LPG Charcoal stove Charcoal Coal Stove Fuel wood Stove Crop residue stove Coal Cooking Kerosene Stove Electric stove Fuel wood Microwave oven OTG Stove Dung Water Heating Gas Oven Solar Cooker Solar Concentrator Crop residue Solar Water heater Immersion heater Solar Lantern Kerosene Wick lantern Petromax lantern Lighting Hurricane lantern LED Lighting Electricity CFL Light Tube light Incandescent Lamp Appliances Fan, Cooler, A/C Solar Refrigerator Space Cooling/Heating TV Refrigeration Computer/Laptops Entertainment Music players Washing Washing Machine Other end use Hot Iron Other electrical appliance Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India