Technology, Consumer Behavior, and Policy Evolution Sharyn Lie - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demand and the Vehicle Revolution: Technology, Consumer Behavior, and Policy Evolution Sharyn Lie Director, Climate Economics & Modeling Center Office of Transportation and Air Quality September 24, 2018

Technology Viable alternatives exist today Source: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/alternatives.shtml

Technology Hype or Happening? Source: http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world- Source: https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner- plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ hype-cycle

Technology Challenges: Cost and Range Distribution of Trips by Distance Plugin Vehicle Battery Costs ($/kWh) 70 BNEF (Historical) NREL (Projection) $900 60 $800 $800 50 Percent of Trips $700 $600 40 $/kWh $500 30 $400 $179 20 $300 $80 $200 $100 10 $100 0 $- < 6 6-10 11-20 21-30 >30 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year Miles Source Data: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/electric-cars-may-be-cheaper-than-gas- Adapted from: https://insideevs.com/study-60-percent-trips-less-6-miles guzzlers-in-seven-years Source data: National Household Travel Survey, 2017 https://www.bnef.com/core/insights/17517/ https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicle-trips https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/electrification-futures.html

Technology Infrastructure: Limited but Growing Sources: https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.h tml#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC; www.electrifyamerica.com; http://westcoastgreenhighway.com/electrichighway.htm; https://kcpl.chargepoint.com/charge_point/

Technology Systems Integration

New York City Data http://www.businessofapps.com/data/uber-statistics/ https://www.creditloan.com/blog/average-american-spends-on-entertainment/

Mobility as a Service (MAAS) Source: https://whimapp.com/

Source: http://sharedusemobilitycenter.org/

Policy Evolution