TCEQ Update: North Texas Clean Air Steering Committee Meeting Brian Foster June 30, 2005 Air Modeling Section Air Quality Planning and Implementation Division
TCEQ Update • Modeling Update • Controls Already in Place • 2010 Emissions Inventory • Control Strategy Development • Examples of Lifestyle Changes • SIP Time Line • Cement Kiln Study Update Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 2
Modeling Update • Background – The 9-county DFW area is classified as Moderate for 8- hour ozone and has an attainment date of June 15, 2010. The attainment demonstration must be based on the 2009 future year. – Modeling tests were performed using a 2010 future year to estimate the amount of NOx and VOC reductions needed for the DFW area to reach attainment. A 2009 future inventory is currently being developed. – Analyses for both the original 1999 modeling episode (August 15-22) and a corroborative episode (August 23- September 1, 1999) are being conducted. Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 3
Modeling Update (cont.) • Methodology – Starting with the 2010 projected emissions, a series of across the board reductions were applied to anthropogenic emissions of VOC, NOx, and both in the 9-county DFW area. – Model-predicted future 8-hour design values were plotted against the percent reduction to estimate the level of reduction required to demonstrate attainment. Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 4
Modeling Update (cont.) • Results – Both original and corroborative episodes show a limited response to reductions of VOC. – Both episodes show responsiveness to reductions of NOx and the model predicts that approximately 45% of NOx reductions are needed for the area to demonstrate attainment. – A combined 40% NOx and 50% VOC reduction would also show attainment in 2010. Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 5
Design Value-Scaled 2010 DFW 8-Hour Ozone VOC Reductions. Aug 13-22, 1999 Core Period. 100 90 Frisco C31 Dallas C60 Dallas C63 Ozone (ppb) 80 Dallas C402 Denton C56 Midlothian C94 Arlington C57 70 Fort Worth C13 Fort Worth C17 85 ppb 60 50 0 25 50 75 VOC Reduction [%] Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 6
Design Value Scaled 2010 DFW 8-Hour Ozone NOx Reductions. Aug 13-22, 1999 Core Period. 100 90 Frisco C31 Dallas C60 Dallas C63 Ozone (ppb) 80 Dallas C402 Denton C56 Midlothian C94 Arlington C57 70 Fort Worth C13 Fort Worth C17 85ppb 60 50 0 20 40 60 NOx Reduction [%] Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 7
Design Value-Scaled 2010 DFW 8-Hour Ozone NOx and VOC Reductions. Aug 13-22, 1999 Core Period. 100 90 Frisco C31 Dallas C60 Dallas C63 80 Dallas C402 Denton C56 Midlothian C94 Arlington C57 70 Fort Worth C13 Fort Worth C17 85 ppb 60 50 0 20 40 60 NOx Reduction [%] 0 25 50 VOC Reduction [%] Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 8
Controls Already in Place Gasoline Terminals Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance Stage I Vapor Recovery Fugitive Emissions Texas Emissions Reduction Plan Surface Coating Rules Wood Furniture Manufacture Clean Diesel Lean-burn and Rich-burn Engines Architectural/Industrial Coatings Utility/Industrial NOx Cement Kiln Emission Limits Traffic Markings Airport Ground Equipment High Performance Maintenance Coatings Clean Gasoline Texas Clean Fuel Fleet Special Purpose Coatings Gas-fired Water Heaters, Small Boilers, and Regional Utility NOx Aircraft Stage III Process Heaters Low Reid Vapor Pressure Gas Industrial Boilers California Spark-Ignition Engines Voluntary Tier II Vehicle Standards Utility Boilers Mobile Emissions Reduction Program (VMEP) UST Remediation Federal Low Sulfur Gas Transportation Control Measures Signal Improvements National Low Emission Vehicles Speed Limit Reduction Carswell Air Force Base Fire Training Pit Locomotive Engines Closure Portable Fuel Containers Diesel Engines Energy Efficiency Spark Ignition Standards Alcoa Reductions Recreational Marine Standards Windshield Washer Fluid Stage II Vapor Recovery Bakeries Municipal Landfills Consumer/Commercial Products Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 9
Controls in Place have helped Reduce Ozone in DFW Area Dallas - Fort Worth One-Hour Ozone Design Value Trends by Site Each Design Value Covers a 3-Year Period Ending with the Year Indicated 225 200 Dallas N C05/63 175 Colony Design Value (ppb) Hinton C401 Keller C17 Denton C33/56 150 Arlington C57 Redbird C402 Meacham C13 Compliance Level 125 Frisco C31 100 75 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 3-Year Period Ending at End of Year Shown Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 10
Controls in Place have Reduced 8 Hour Ozone Levels, but the Area does not Meet the Standard Dallas - Fort Worth Eight-Hour Ozone Design Value Trends by Site Each Design Value Covers a 3-Year Period Ending with the Year Indicated 160 155 150 145 140 135 Dallas N C05/63 130 Colony Design Value (ppb) 125 Hinton C401 120 Keller C17 115 Denton C33/56 110 Redbird C402 Meacham C13 105 Frisco C31 100 95 90 Compliance Level 85 80 75 70 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 3-Year Period Ending at End of Year Shown Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 11
2010 Emissions Inventory D/FW NOx Reductions Needed 45% n o i c t u d e R x O N 183 tpd Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 12
2010 Emissions Inventory Dallas/Fort Worth NOx Non-Road Mobile 132 tpd (32%) Point Source On-Road Mobile 86 tpd (21%) Area Source 154 tpd (38%) 35 tpd (9%) Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 13
2010 Emissions Inventory Sources Directly Regulated by TCEQ Non-Road Mobile Point Source On-Road Mobile Area Source 120.2 tpd (30%) Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 14
2010 Emissions Inventory Examples of NOx Emissions Sources On-Road Non-Road Point Sources Area Sources Mobile Sources Mobile Sources Electric Utilities Cars Locomotives Oil and Gas Production Industrial Utilities Trucks Aircraft Residential Natural Gas Cement Kilns Construction Equipment Commercial/Industrial Industrial Equipment Natural Gas Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 15
2010 Emissions Inventory Dallas/Fort Worth Point Source Non-Road Mobile 132 tpd (32%) Point Source On-Road Mobile 86 tpd (21%) 154 tpd (38%) Area Source 35 tpd (9%) Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 16
2010 Emissions Inventory Point Source Emissions from Ellis County Non-Road Mobile On-Road Mobile Area Source 47% Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 17
Control Strategy Development Potential Control Strategy Studies Recommended to Texas Environmental Research Consortium – Types of NOx Sources � Gas fired engines � Pipeline engines � Process heaters and gas turbines � Back-up Diesel Generators � Electric Utilities � Test Cell and Test Stand emission control technology Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 18
Control Strategy Development Potential Control Strategy Studies Recommended to Texas Environmental Research Consortium – Types of VOC Sources � Coal Tar Pavement / Sealers � Coatings and Solvent � Mobile Refueling � Loading and Unloading Operations (railcars) Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 19
Control Strategy Development • Control Measure Catalog – TCEQ developing a list of potential control strategies for DFW – Living document – Draft scheduled for review in August – DFW and Houston work groups combined when possible • Working with NCTCOG to obtain best information available Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 20
Examples of Lifestyle Changes • Free/Low Cost Transit (esp. on ozone action days) - Costly. • Parking Restrictions - A program to limit vehicle use in downtown areas or other areas of emission concentration could include: preferential parking for HOV users, public sector pricing, and/or control of parking supply. • Drive Thru Windows at Banks, Restaurants and Dry Cleaners - Ban use during ozone season. Technical Analysis Division • NTCASC Meeting • June 30, 2005 • Page 21
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