SRC Project 879 Progress Report March 2003 Task 879.1: Intelligent Demand Aggregation and Forecasting Task Leader: Argon Chen Co-Investigators: Ruey-Shan Guo Shi-Chung Chang Students: Janet Cheng, Odey Ho, Legend Fu, Tony Huang, Kyle Yang 1
Outline � Prior work: Demand Planning Hierarchy (DPH) � Product Hierarchy � DPH Extension for Product Hierarchy � DPH Analysis System Prototype � Feature Works 2
Problem Description � Strategies for Demand Planning: � Top-down approach � Bottom-up approach � Middle-out approach � Problems: � What dimension should be considered to aggregate/disaggregate first? � What’s the difference? � Objectives: � Define Demand Planning Views � Develop an optimal strategy for Demand Planning: Demand Planning Hierarchy (DPH) 3
Demand Planning Hierarchy (DPH) Example: � Two demands views: Time and Geography � Strategy: Top-down - Path 1: break down along Geography View first, then along Time View - Path 2: break down along Time View first, then along Geography View - Path 3: …… Demand Planning Hierarchy: Sequence of Aggregation Levels � Question: which path? 4
Representation of Demand Views � View with Hierarchical Levels: e.g. time horizon (necessary), geography view, etc.. Notation: VIEW level1 • level2 Example: TIME Year • Quarter • Month • Week GEOGRAPHY Continent • Country • City � View with Attributes: e.g. product type Notation: VIEW attribute × attribute Example: PRODUCT Generation × Function × Technology � View with Mixed Attributes Example: PRODUCT (Generation × Function × Technology) • PartNumber 5
DPH Evaluation Metric: Actual Demand Fluctuation � Coefficient of Variation (CV): Std.Dev of demand ( σ ) CV = = degree of fluctuation Mean of demand ( µ ) � Weighted Average CV: by demand volume µ µ µ ⋅ + ⋅ + + ⋅ 1 CV 2 CV n CV L 1 2 n n n n ∑ ∑ ∑ µ µ µ i i i = = = i 1 i 1 i 1 Weighted-average CV values at all levels are averaged to represent the demand stability of a DPH 6
Case Study � Demand Views � Product: ASIC � Views with Hierarchical Levels: Time: Quarter, Month, Week Customer: Geocorp Geography (GG), Geocorp Code (GC) � View with Mixed Attributes: Product: Technology (T), Number of Metal Layers(L), Package (P); PartNum is hierarchical to the combination of T, L, P 7
Least-Fluctuation DPH � Dynamic programming search: Avg. of Sum of Std. Dev: 3,295,969.3 W. Avg. CV W. Avg. CV W. Avg. CV Inflation(%) Shrinkage(%) Value Avg. of W. Avg. CV: 1.284784 0.720 Time Quarter x Customer All x Product All 1.48 1.46 0.731 Time Quarter x Customer GG x Product All -0.68 -0.68 0.726 Time Quarter • Month x Customer GG x Product All 10.92 12.30 0.815 Time Quarter • Month x Customer GG • GC x Product All 41.15 29.13 1.150 Time Quarter • Month x Customer GG • GC x Product L 1.60 1.57 1.169 Time Quarter • Month x Customer GG • GC x Product LxT 11.16 10.04 1.299 Time Quarter • Month x Customer GG • GC x Product LxTxP 39.80 28.47 1.817 Time Quarter • Month • Week x Customer GG • GC x Product LxTxP 72.61 42.07 3.136 Time Quarter • Month • Week x Customer GG • GC x Product (LxTxP) • PartNum 8
DPH Extension - Motivation � Prior work: DPH for only one product type � DPH for an entire product hierarchy? � A product hierarchy example All CPU, Memory,.. Desktop Server Hard disk type, Notebook No of CPU, Monitor type Pointer device Hard disk type LCD type/size, … Business Home Power Power 9
Outline � Prior work: Demand Planning Hierarchy (DPH) � Product Hierarchy � DPH Extension for Product Hierarchy � DPH Analysis System Prototype � Feature Works 10
Product Hierarchy � Product Differentiation � Base on the substitutive and/or heterogeneous properties of different products, we can classify and arrange all products into a product hierarchy � Product Hierarchy � Hierarchical product differentiation � Example: All CPU, Memory,.. Desktop Server Hard disk type, Notebook No of CPU, Monitor type Pointer device Hard disk type LCD type/size, … Business Home Power Power 11
Common Attributes in Product Hierarchy � Common Attributes � It is possible for different nodes have the same product attributes Home CPU, Motherboard…… Desktop Business CPU, Motherboard …… � We may like to raise some of the attribute to a higher planning level that called common attribute Home Motherboard… Desktop CPU Private Attributes Private Attributes Business Motherboard… Common Attribute Common Attribute 12
A Semiconductor Example All Package Memory ASIC Technology, Target Appl, Levels of Metal, Processor, Size Speed RQ RR 13
A DPH Solution Product All x Time Year x Customer All Product All x Time Year x Customer GG Product ASIC x Time Year x Customer GG Product Memory x Time Year x Customer GG Product ASIC x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product Memory x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product ASIC(Package) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product Memory(Package) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product ASIC(Package, Levls of Metal) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product Memory(Package, Target Appl) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product ASIC(Package, Levls of Metal, Technology) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product RR(Package, Target Appl) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product RQ(Package, Target Appl) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product ASIC(Package, Levls of Metal, Technology, Size) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product RR(Package, Target Appl, Processor) x Time Year x Customer GG • GC Product RQ(Package, Target Appl, Processor) x Time Year x Customer GG • 14
Outline � Prior work: Demand Planning Hierarchy (DPH) � Product Hierarchy � DPH Extension for Product Hierarchy � DPH Analysis System Prototype � Feature Works 15
Balanced DPH – Example Product All Product All(Package) Product Hierarchy Product ASIC(Package) Product Memory(Package) Product ASIC(Package, Size) Product Memory(Package, Speed) Product ASIC(Package, Size, Technology) Product RR(Package, Speed) Product RQ(Package, Speed) For every branches, disaggregate by For every branches, disaggregate by one of the attributes or one of the middle nodes one of the attributes or one of the middle nodes 16
Unbalanced DPH – Example � We focus on product dimension only Product All Product All(Package) Product ASIC(Package) Product Memory(Package) Product ASIC(Package, Size) Product Memory(Package) Product Hierarchy Product ASIC(Package,Size) Product Memory(Package, Speed) Disaggregate by one of the Disaggregate by one of the middle nodes or one of the middle nodes or one of the attributes at one step attributes at one step 17
Optional Planning Constrains � There are optional constrains that can be set to prevent irrational hierarchical relations � Example Product All(Package) Product ASIC Product Memory Product All Product All Product ASIC Product ASIC Product Memory Product Memory Product ASIC(Package) Product Memory(Speed) Product ASIC(Package) Product Memory(Package) 18
Outline � Prior work: Demand Planning Hierarchy (DPH) � Product Hierarchy � DPH Extension for Product Hierarchy � DPH Analysis System Prototype � Feature Works 19
System Architecture OLTP / Data Mart MDX Query OLAP Result Dataset OLTP / Data Demand Planning Dimension Information Data Mart Warehouse Hierarchy System Application T-SQL Pre-process of OLTP / Meta Data product data Data Mart Result Dataset DPH System DPH System – – System Architecture System Architecture � DPH system, OLAP database, metadata database can be located in one system or separated systems � Platform: .NET; Language: C # 20
DPH System Preview � Planning Flow � Create a New Project New Project Wizard � � Allocate Dimensions � Solve DPH Network Top-down Greedy Search � Button-up Greedy Search � Dynamic Programming � Search DPH System – – User Interface User Interface DPH System 21
DPH System Demo � New Project Wizard � Dimension Allocation � Solve DPH Network 22
New Project Wizard Step 1 of 5: DPH System – – New Project Wizard New Project Wizard DPH System 23
New Project Wizard (cont.) Step 2 of 5: DPH System – – New Project Wizard New Project Wizard DPH System 24
New Project Wizard (cont.) Step 3 of 5: DPH System – – New Project Wizard New Project Wizard DPH System 25
New Project Wizard (cont.) Step 4 of 5: DPH System – – New Project Wizard New Project Wizard DPH System 26
New Project Wizard (cont.) Step 5 of 5: DPH System – – New Project Wizard New Project Wizard DPH System 27
Dimension Allocation Step 1 of 2: 28
Dimension Allocation (cont.) Step 2 of 2: 29
Solve DPH Network UI 1 of 2: DPH System DPH System – – Top Top- -Down Search: Calculation Down Search: Calculation 30
Solve DPH Network (cont.) UI 2 of 2: DPH System DPH System – – Top Top- -Down Search: Result Down Search: Result 31
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