Sustainable Inclusive Growth in Brazil: Past Achievements and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna Sustainable Inclusive Growth in Brazil: Past Achievements and Challenges Ahead Ricardo Paes de Barros (IAS/Insper), Diana Coutinho (IAS), Marina de Cuffa (IAS/Insper), Samuel Franco (OPE Sociais), Beatriz Garcia (Insper/IAS), Rosane Mendonça (UFF), Laura Müller Machado (IAS/Insper), Camila Soares (IAS/Insper) Brasília CÁTEDRA October, 2017 Instituto Ayrton Senna

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1 Achievements

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Evolution of the Extreme Poverty in Brazil 26 percentage of the population below the extreme poverty line 24 22 20 18 16 Reduction in extreme poverty 4 times faster 14 than required by the MDG 12 MDG 10 8 6 4 MDG met 10 years in 2 advance 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Evolution of Poverty in Brazil 45 percentage of the population below the poverty line 40 39,4 38,7 38,3 36,9 35 34,2 Reduction in poverty 2,5 30 faster than required to 29,7 reduce to 1/2 in 25 years 28,0 25 25,2 23,8 20 20,6 18,0 17,0 17,1 15 15,3 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Evolution of Poverty in Brazil 45 41,1 39,5 percentage of the population below the poverty line 38,7 38,7 40 37,5 39,4 38,7 34,5 38,3 without reduction 33,5 35 11,8 36,9 31,8 in inequality 31,1 34,2 28,6 30 26,9 26,7 21,6 29,7 25,5 24,7 28,0 25 With reduction 25,2 23,8 in inequality 20 20,6 18,0 15 17,1 17,0 15,3 10 Almost ½ of the reduction in poverty is due to the reduction in inequality 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Average annual growth rate of the labor income per worker by tenths of the income distribution: Brazil, 2001-2015 5,0% 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eigth Ninth Tenth

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Average annual growth rate of labor income per worker by percentile 5,0% 4,5% 4,0% average annual growth rate (%) 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% -1,0% -1,5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentile of the income distribution

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Evolution of the Main Brazilian Labor Market Indicators II 1800 12,0% R$1,731 real wage 1700 11,0% increase 44% Monthly average earnings (R$ of 2014) in 10 years 1600 10,0% Average Earnings unemployment rate 1500 9,0% 9,0% unemolyment rate 1400 declined almost two 8,0% percentage points in 10 years 7,0% 1300 7,0% 1200 6,0% Unemployment R$1,199 Rate 1100 5,0% 1000 4,0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Evolution of the Main Brazilian Labor Market Indicators I 900 54,0 R$872 real minimum 850 52,5 wage doubled percentage of the labor force in the formal sector in 20 years 800 51,0 51% 750 49,5 Minimum wage (R$ of 2015) 700 48,0 650 46,5 Degree of Formalization 600 45,0 Minimum 550 43,5 the degreee of Wage formalization increased 500 42,0 41% 10 percentage points 450 40,5 R$440 400 39,0 350 37,5 300 36,0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita do 1º Décimo: Área Total Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição 52 118 6,0% 100% Renda per capita 51% 60% 1,1% 13% Porcentagem de adultos 24 85 9,6% 56% Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto 48% 40% -1,3% -12% Taxa de ocupação (%) 161 279 4,0% 43% Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita dos 20% mais pobres: Área Total Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição 89 187 5,4% 100% Renda per capita 54% 63% 1,0% 14% Porcentagem de adultos 36 97 7,3% 39% Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto 52% 44% -1,2% -12% Taxa de ocupação (%) 246 459 4,5% 60% Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita dos 40% mais pobres: Área Total Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição 155 303 4,9% 100% Renda per capita 60% 68% 0,9% 15% Porcentagem de adultos 56 130 6,2% 34% Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto 54% 48% -0,9% -11% Taxa de ocupação (%) 377 662 4,1% 62% Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Determinantes do diferencial da renda per capita: Área Total Determinantes Brasil 2001 Brasil 2015 Diferencial Contribuição 754 1057 2,4% 100% Renda per capita 71% 79% 0,7% 27% Porcentagem de adultos 235 329 2,4% 24% Renda nào derivada do trabalho por adulto 60% 58% -0,2% -7% Taxa de ocupação (%) 1364 1730 1,7% 56% Remuneração do trabalho por ocupado Fonte: estimado com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2 It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Income Inequality in High and Middle Income Countries: 2012 Brazil Mexico Turkey United States Israel United Kingdom Greece Portugal Estonia Spain New Zealand Italy Australia Korea France Ireland Luxembourg Poland Hungary Germany Switzerland Netherlands Austria Sweden Belgium Inequality Finland Iceland Czech Republic remains very high Norway Slovenia Slovak Republic Denmark 0,20 0,22 0,24 0,26 0,28 0,30 0,32 0,34 0,36 0,38 0,40 0,42 0,44 0,46 0,48 0,50 0,52 0,54 Gini Coefficient

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Evolution of the percentage of the total income going to the Evolução da porcentagem da renda das famílias apropriada poorest 40% and 50% in Brazil pelos 40% e 50% mais pobres no Brasil 18 Bottom 50% 50% mais pobre 16 Percentage of total income (%) 14 porcentagem da renda total (%) 12 10 40% mais pobre Bottom 40% 8 6 4 2 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Evolution of the Brazilian Primary Federal Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP: 2002-2014 20,0 19,5 19,0 Federal Primary Expenditures are increasing 0,4 percentage 18,5 points per year percentage of GDP 18,0 17,5 17,0 16,5 Severe Fiscal 16,0 Imbalance 15,5 15,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Distribution of countries according to total government Distribuição dos países de acordo com o gasto governaental expenditure as a percentage of GDP como porcentagem do PIB 60 Total government expenditure as percentage of GDP 55 50 45 Brasil Taxa de crescimento anual (%) 41% 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 72% 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 porcentagem de países Percentage of countries

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Evolução do grau de desigualdade salarial entre os Evolution of the wage inequality among employees in the empregados públicos (estatutários) e os empregados com public and private sectors carteira no setor privado: Coeficiente de Gini. 2001-2014 0,50 0,49 0,48 0,47 Employees in the Funcionários 0,46 públicos estatutários Public Sector Gini coefficient 0,45 coeficiente de Gini 0,44 0,43 0,42 0,41 0,40 Employees in the Empregados com 0,39 carteira no setor privado Private Sector 0,38 0,37 0,36 0,35 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna Required growth and 3 inequality reduction

CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 3. Required growth and inequality reduction Impact of balanced growth on poverty: Brazil, 2015 20 18 16 14 poverty level (%) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Balanced growth (%)