Towards Sustainable and Inclusive Growth: Challenges amidst the Global Turbulence Dr. Darmin Nasution Governor of Bank Indonesia Bankers’ Dinner 23 November 2012 Respectable Leaders and Members of Parliament, Honorable Ministers and Heads of Institutions, Prominent Bankers, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalamu‘alaikum Wr. Wb, Good Evening and May God Bless Us All, Commencing our respectable gathering this evening, I would like to invite all of you to join me in extending praise and gratitude to God Almighty who has blessed us once again with the opportunity to meet here for the Bankers’ Dinner 2012. In this very appropriate time, please allow me on behalf of Bank Indonesia ’ s Board of Governors to express our depeest gratitude and appreciation to the banking community as well as the government, the parliament, businesspeople, academics, experts, press and other stakeholders for supporting Bank Indonesia in performing its mandates. 1
Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 1. During last year’s Bankers’ Dinner on December 9, 2011, at this very same room, I caught the glimpse of optimism surrounding all of us. We were optimistic that 2012 would be the year of hopes and opportunities for all of us to continue safeguarding the economy with a strong and sustainable growth. 2. It was indeed not an overly sanguine expectation considering that 2011 had seen a steady domestic expansion accompanied by impressive macro stability. Furthermore, since early 2011 the US economy had shown signs of bottoming out from its severe crisis in 2008. 3. However, by mid 2012 we came to realize that the global crisis has not subsided. The multi dimensional crisis that depressed the European economy has brought a global impact of great magnitude during 2012. 4. Up to this moment, the European region has been confronted by unavoidable debt trap, tightened fiscal space, squeezed monetary room, mounting unemployment level, fragile financial sector, and decaying market confidence. All of these combined has manifested into a vicious circle that is weakening Europe ’s ability to escape from the prolonged crisis. 5. As the global inter-linkages strengthened, the dynamics of emerging economies cannot be entirely decoupled from what happens in the advanced economies. Since mid-2012, we have seen some big developing countries, particularly China, began to lose its endurance. Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 6. The depth and scope of crisis originated from US sub-prime bubble burst coupled with European debt problem have shifted backward the structural capacity of advanced economies. In the following years, advanced economies will have to accept a low-growth new equilibrium. 2
7. Economists have called this equilibrium “ the new normal. ” It represents an era resulted from significant post-bubble correction following “ the great moderation ” spanning from 2000 to 2007. During this tranquil episode, global economy grew high in a relatively long period of time, supported by rapid technological advancement, low level of interest rate and inflation, but accompanied by the accumulation of leverage in the household sector as well as excessive risk taking and engineering in the financial sector. The bubble has finally burst at the end of 2008, culminated with the episode of “Lehman Collapse. ” Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 8. While the advanced countries started the opening decade of this new millennium with the golden era of “ great moderation ” and closed it with the gloomy “ new normal ” , the exact opposite happened in Indonesia. We started in thorny path resulted from the aftershock of economic stabilization program post the 1997/1998 crisis, and landed successfully inside a transition period of an economy categorized as middle income country. 9. Indone sia’s per capita income by the end of 2011 has reached approximately USD 3,000, six-fold increase from the figure in the Asian crisis of 1997/1998. If our economy continues to grow while the macroeconomic and financial stability can be maintained, it is only a matter of time before Indonesia move into the upper middle income countries category with per capita income reaching USD 4,000. 10. We also manage to close the early decade of the new millennium with phenomena of an increasing group of society experiencing higher standard of living, the so-called middle class. At present and in the future, this group will become an important transitional strength to influence our entire aspects of life, be it politics, economy, social as well as culture. 3
11. We have optimism that with the rapid increase in the productive-age population as a demographic bonus within the population pyramid, the growing middle class will continue to expand until at least the next 20 years. Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 12. In the midst of prolonged sluggishness within the advanced economies, the expanding middle-class population has strengthened and enriched the diversity of base demand of goods and services in the domestic market, thereby steadfastly supporting the economic expansion. In the last eight years, we manage to successfully maintain a continuous economic growth of around 6.1 – 6.2% per year (figure 5), one of the highest in the world. 13. In addition to the expanding middle class population, the resilience of the domestic economy is also sustained by the stable and conducive macro and financial environment, therefore providing space for a broad-based economic expansion. In my view, this achievement is inseparable from the solid and well-coordinated fiscal, monetary, and banking policies that are built based on prudence and discipline. 14. The Economist , in its November 10, 2012 issue, presented an interesting analysis describing the new era of Great Moderation in Asia. The magazine applauded Indonesia for having the most stable economic growth within the last twenty quarters in world economy. 15. The magazine also acknowledged Indonesia as a pioneer in implementing monetary and macro prudential policy mix. Through an effective policy mix, Indonesia is deemed capable of mitigating credit risks and preventing capital outflows without having to raise interest rate. 16. The central bank’s policy of preemptive easing, according to the magazine, has significantly contributed to maintain economic growth stability. Since October 2011, Bank Indonesia has become the first central bank in Asia to lower its policy rate. 4
17. In my view, this magazine’s review has revealed a fresh reference on the fact that macro management relying solely on prudence and discipline is insufficient. At the end of the day, it remains true that the policy is more of an art rather than a science. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, 18. While growth can be maintained at a high level, the inflation rate in recent years has in fact shown a downward trend towards the medium-term target of 4.0 percent. Likewise, the rupiah in the past three years have also been moving in line with the fundamental condition. 19. On the one hand, the achievement of a low inflation and stable exchange rate has created conducive climate for the resilience of the banking industry. On the other hand, the well-proven resilience of our banking industry is able to become a shock absorber for the economy. This is supported by adequate capital strength to absorb various risks, as well as effective regulation and supervision. 20. With improved resiliency, the banking intermediation is on the right track. This is reflected in the relatively strong growth of productive loan, while keeping the non-performing at a low level. The increase in credit expansion i s also inseparable from BI’s policy a few years ago which linked the Minimum Reserve Requirement to Loan-to-Deposit Ratio. 21. With the declining macro risks and the proven financial stability, the saving- investment dynamic grow more robust and contributive to strengthen the structural foundation of the economy. Investors begin to feel confident developing their production capacity. This is reflected in an increased ratio of investment to GDP, even surpassing the pre-crisis level of 1997/1998. Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 5
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