Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior - PDF document

5/1/14 Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior Settings By Joel M. Caplan, PhD www.joelcaplan.com School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ 07102 www.rutgerscps.org • Sustainability of criminogenic environments – I.e. “hotspots” • Sustainability of methods for analyzing crime and crime patterns. – I.e., “hotspot mapping” Both affect strategies for allocations of resources. School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 1

5/1/14 School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org Density Value Kernel School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 2

5/1/14 School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org It happened here before. Go here again. School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 3

5/1/14 • Analytical techniques shouldn’t be “hooked” on inputs which are outcomes intended to be prevented. School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org “A ¡mapless ¡map…describes ¡how ¡one ¡variable ¡is ¡ distributed ¡in ¡space…. ¡To ¡determine ¡‘why’ ¡it ¡is ¡distributed ¡ the ¡way ¡it ¡is, ¡the ¡spa=al ¡distribu=on ¡of ¡at ¡least ¡one ¡other ¡ variable ¡needs ¡to ¡be ¡considered.” ¡ (Rengert ¡& ¡Lockwood, ¡2010; ¡p. ¡109) School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 4

5/1/14 • Hotspots ¡tell ¡where ¡to ¡go, ¡but ¡not ¡what ¡to ¡do ¡when ¡you ¡get ¡there. ¡ ¡ • Q: ¡What ¡aQracts ¡illegal ¡behavior ¡at ¡this ¡high-­‑crime ¡area ¡ • Q: ¡Why ¡does ¡crime ¡cluster ¡there ¡over ¡=me? ¡ School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org Kid Cluster School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 5

5/1/14 Crime Cluster Kid Cluster School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org • Spatial analysis technique developed by Joel M. Caplan and Leslie W. Kennedy at Rutgers University. School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 6

5/1/14 1 Test Inputs 2 Weight Valid Factors Produce Map 3 Output Final Model School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 7

5/1/14 School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 1. Elastic net penalized regression (assuming Poisson distribution) – Uses cross-validation 2. Bidirectional stepwise regression – Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) scores – Does it twice: Assumes both a Poisson and Negative Binomial distribution 3. “Best” model with lowest BIC score is selected 4. Relative Risk Value – Rescaling factor coefficients between the min and max values – Interpreted as weights of risk factors See the User Manual at www.rutgerscps.org/software for details School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 8

5/1/14 School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org Vacant Property à à Community Garden School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 9

5/1/14 Risk-Based Interventions Project Partners: School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 10

5/1/14 School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 11

5/1/14 School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org Newark Chicago Kansas City School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 12

5/1/14 Factor: Attractor/Generator of Crime SO: Optimal Spatial Operationalization SI: Optimal Spatial Influence RR: Relative Risk Value School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org • Sustainable environments for crime exist. • Characteristics of these environments may differ for different crime types and different jurisdictions. • What does this mean for research? • What does this mean for practice? School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org 13

5/1/14 School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior Settings By Joel M. Caplan, PhD www.joelcaplan.com School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ 07102 www.rutgerscps.org 14