Support for a Transportation Funding Measure in Lake County Key Findings From a Countywide Voter Survey May 29 – June 1, 2012 220-3379
Methodology • 628 telephone interviews with likely November 2012 voters in Lake County, including: – 202 interviews with voters in the City of Clearlake – 426 interviews with voters in the balance of the County • Data statistically weighted to reflect the true geographic distribution of voters through the County • Interviews conducted between May 29-June 1, 2012 • Margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 % • Interviews on both landlines and cell phones • Some percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding • Tracking from March 2003 survey 1
Key Findings � While the economy is the greatest concern for voters, many believe the streets and roads are in bad shape and rank them as major concerns. � A countywide sales tax measure has broad support, but falls just at the two-thirds vote thresholds (68%); support increases only slightly (to 70%) after pro and con messaging. � Support is impressively broad, and cuts across most segments of the electorate – even winning clear majority support among Republicans. � Voters place a clear priority on fixing potholes, improving safety and making repairs to existing streets and roads. � Strict fiscal accountability provisions – like a 10-year sunset provision – could yield additional support. � Voters are much more ambivalent about a one-cent sales tax, or about a ten-dollar vehicle registration fee. 2
3 Mood of the Electorate
Half of voters in Clearlake disapprove of the job being done by City government; attitudes are more favorable toward Lakeport and County government . Str. App. S.W. App. S.W. Disapp. Str. Disapp. DK/NA 69% 27% ° Lakeport city government 11% 58% 15% 12% 57% 27% Lake County government 14% 43% 14% 13% 16% 34% 50% * Clearlake city government 29% 20% 30% 16% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1. Would you say you generally approve or disapprove of the job that __________ is doing? *Asked of Clearlake Respondents. ° Asked of 4 Lakeport Respondents.
The economy is by far the number one issue in the County, but voters are also concerned about the conditions of streets and roads. Total Ext./Very Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. S.W. Ser. Prob. Not Ser. Prob. DK/NA Serious The availability of good 80% 2012 43% 37% 14% paying jobs for people that 72% 2003 33% 39% 19% 5% 5% want to work 68% The condition of the local economy 35% 33% 23% 5% 58% 2012 28% 30% 31% 10% The condition of county roads 53% 2003 25% 28% 25% 21% 57% 2012 26% 31% 26% 11% 7% The condition of incorporated city streets 69% 2003 37% 32% 19% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6. Let me read you a list of issues people are sometimes concerned about these days. Please tell me whether you consider it to be an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem or not too serious a problem for people who live in Lake 5 County. Split Sample. *Asked of Clearlake Respondents.
I n Clearlake, a majority of voters believes too many building code violations are an “extremely” or “very” serious problem. Total Ext./Very Serious Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. S.W. Ser. Prob. Not Ser. Prob. DK/NA * Too many rundown and deteriorating 52% 26% 26% 29% 13% 5% buildings that violate building codes 41% The level of crime in Lake County 14% 27% 40% 13% 5% 2012 13% 26% 35% 23% 39% The safety of your city streets and county roads 34% 2003 13% 21% 26% 38% Waste and inefficiency in 2012 32% 13% 19% 33% 18% 18% local government 32% 2003 15% 17% 29% 20% 19% 28% 2012 10% 18% 28% 30% 14% Unplanned growth and development 2003 30% 10% 20% 28% 31% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6. Let me read you a list of issues people are sometimes concerned about these days. Please tell me whether you consider it to be an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem or not too serious a problem for people who live in Lake 6 County. Split Sample. *Asked of Clearlake Respondents.
Taxes remain a relatively low-level concern. Total Ext./Very Serious Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. S.W. Ser. Prob. Not Ser. Prob. DK/NA 21% 2012 10% 9% 12% 28% 41% The amount you pay in local taxes 19% 2003 9% 10% 19% 56% 6% 28% 2012 8% 20% 26% 23% 22% The quality of local public schools 33% 2003 13% 20% 21% 23% 22% The condition and quality of local 12% 9% 29% 50% 10% parks Traffic congestion on 2012 6% 22% 68% incorporated city streets 12% 2003 8% 22% 65% and county roads 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6. Let me read you a list of issues people are sometimes concerned about these days. Please tell me whether you consider it to be an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem or not too serious a problem for people who live in Lake 7 County. Split Sample. *Asked of Clearlake Respondents.
8 Testing a Sales Tax Ballot Measure
Ballot Language Tested COUNTY-WIDE ROAD REPAIR AND IMPROVEMENT ACT. In order to repave and improve local city streets and county roads; fix potholes; and improve bicycle, pedestrian, vehicular, and transit rider safety in Lake County, shall the Lake County Board of Supervisors enact a one-half cent sales tax for 20 years, with an independent annual audit? 9
I nitial support for the measure is broad, with just over two-thirds in favor. Definitely yes 43% Total Yes Probably yes 21% 68% Undecided, lean yes 4% Undecided, lean no 1% Total Probably no 8% No 29% Definitely no 20% Don't know/NA 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 10
Male and female voters offer equal support for the potential measure. Initial Vote by Gender Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Men Women (% of (47%) (53%) Sample) 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 11
Even Lake County Republicans say they will vote for the measure with a 23-point margin. Initial Vote by Party Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Democrat Independent Republican (% of (41%) (29%) (30%) Sample) 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 12
Support cuts across geographic areas within the county. Initial Vote by City Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Clearlake Lakeport Unincorporated (% of (18%) (8%) (74%) Sample) 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 13
The sales tax sees greater support among younger voters, and greater opposition among older voters. Initial Vote by Age Total Yes Total No Undecided 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75+ 18-49 50+ 65+ (% of (10%) (9%) (13%) (35%) (18%) (15%) (32%) (68%) (33%) Sample) 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 14
Households with car commuters are marginally more likely to support the sales tax. Initial Vote by Commuter Status Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% One Commuter Multiple Commuter Non-Commuter Commuters Households Households (% of Sample) (26%) (40%) (67%) (33%) 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 15
Higher income households tend to be more supportive of a sales tax. Initial Vote by Household Income Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% $0-$30K $30K-$60K $60K+ (% of (31%) (21%) (32%) Sample) 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 16
Even among the minority of voters who disapprove of County government’s performace, support for the measure is high. Initial Vote by County Government Approval Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Total Approval Total Disapproval Don't know/NA (% of (57%) (26%) (16%) Sample) 2. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it? 17
Supporters agree that roads in the County need major improvements. (Open-Ended Explanations From “Yes” Voters) The roads need to be fixed/maintained 38% The roads are bad/hard to drive on 36% Too many pot holes 22% Costs too much to replace tires/bad for cars 12% The people can afford the cost/need the funding 11% General support 7% Streets are dangerous/need to be safer 7% We need bike lanes/paths 6% The road I live on isn’t paved at all 4% 3% Limits travel/ability to go places Improve the city/quality of life 3% Will create jobs 2% Needs more information 1% 2% Other/Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 3a. In a few words of your own, why would you vote YES on this measure? 18
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