Summary of Results Survey Conducted: April 9-18, 2016 CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 220-4333
Results of interviews with 600 voters in Fresno Unified School District who are likely to cast ballots in the June 2016 Presidential primary election Interviews conducted April 9-18, 2016 Interviews conducted on landline and cell phones Interviews conducted in English and Spanish Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.0% for the full sample Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100% Previous survey results are shown for comparison purposes CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 1
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Voters are aware of significant challenges facing Fresno Unified schools – particularly their physical condition. Total Total Very Acc. Smwt. Acc. Smwt. Inacc. Very Inacc. DK/NA Acc. Inacc. Repairing and upgrading 82% 8% 2016 47% 35% 9% 5% neighborhood schools helps 87% 8% maintain local property values 2010 45% 42% 5% 5% ^Many of our local schools are 75% 19% 2016 42% 33% 10% 8% 6% old, deteriorating and in need of 74% 19% repair 2010 37% 37% 13% 6% 6% 73% 13% 2016 42% 31% 7% 14% 6% Many neighborhood schools are overcrowded 67% 20% 2010 41% 26% 11% 9% 13% Repairing and upgrading 76% 18% 2016 43% 33% 9% 9% 6% neighborhood schools creates 68% 22% 2010 33% 35% 11% 11% 10% good-paying local jobs 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q8. I would like to read you some statements about local public education and schools in your community. Please tell me if you think each of the following statements is accurate or inaccurate. ^Not Part of Split Sample 3
Two-thirds think Fresno Unified has a significant needs for funds, with more than four in ten describe this need as “great.” Generally speaking, would you say that the Fresno Unified School District has a great need for more money, some need, a little need, or no real need for more money? Great need Great/Some 43% Need Some need 25% 67% A Little/ A little need 8% No Real Need No real need 15% 23% Don't know/NA 9% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q3. 4
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Ballot Language Tested THE CLASSROOM EDUCATION, NEIGHBORHOOD SCHOOL REPAIR AND STUDENT SAFETY MEASURE. To upgrade schools in every community by: • Improving classrooms, libraries, technology, and career/technical education; • Improving electrical wiring, heating/air conditioning, fire safety systems; • Replacing outdated portables; • Removing asbestos; • Increasing water conservation/energy efficiency; and • Repairing/constructing/acquiring facilities/equipment, Shall Fresno Unified School District issue ( HALF SAMPLE: $225 million ) ( HALF SAMPLE: $500 million ) in bonds, at legal rates, requiring audits, no money for Sacramento, no money for administrators’ salaries/pensions, all funds used locally? CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 6
There is support for both versions, but the hard vote for the $225 million bond is stronger with 43% voting “definitely” yes. $225 Million: Maintain Tax Rate $500 Million: Increase Tax Rate Definitely yes 43% 34% Total Total 68% Yes 61% Yes 25% 27% Probably yes 74% 67% 5% 6% Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no 2% 1% Total Total Probably no 6% 7% No No 20% 27% Definitely no 13% 18% Undecided 6% 6% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4 (Split Sample). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 7
Perception of need is highly correlated with voting in favor of a Fresno Unified bond measure. Initial Combined Vote by Need for Funding Total Yes Total No Undecided 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Great Need Some Need Great/ Little/ DK/NA Some Need No Real Need (% of Sample) (43%) (25%) (67%) (23%) (9%) CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 8
There is not a significant gender gap… Initial Combined Vote by Gender Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Men Women (% of Sample) (46%) (54%) CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 9
…but there is a 23-point difference between Democrats and Republicans. Initial Combined Vote by Party Total Yes Total No Undecided 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Democrats Independents Republicans (% of Sample) (48%) (20%) (32%) CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 10
There is solid support for a Fresno Unified bond regardless of age. Initial Combined Vote by Age Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75+ 18-49 50+ 65+ (% of Sample) (18%) (14%) (12%) (27%) (14%) (14%) (44%) (55%) (28%) CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 11
Eight in ten Latinos vote yes to approve the bond measure, and two-thirds of white voters support it. Initial Combined Vote by Ethnicity Total Yes Total No Undecided 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Latinos Whites Voters of Color (% of Sample) (30%) (54%) (43%) CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 12
Two-thirds or more vote yes to approve a bond in six of the seven Trustee Districts. Initial Combined Vote by School Board Member District Total Yes Total No Undecided 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (% of Sample) (10%) (8%) (12%) (12%) (17%) (18%) (25%) CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q4 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure? 13
Voters identify a number of basic health and safety repairs to Fresno Unified schools. Ext./Very Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt./DK/NA Impt. Removing lead paint and asbestos 73% 40% 33% 12% 15% from schools 2016 85% 39% 46% 9% 6% Retaining and attracting qualified teachers 83% 2010 41% 42% 12% 5% 81% 2016 36% 45% 14% Fixing deteriorating restrooms and plumbing systems 69% 2010 30% 39% 18% 13% 75% 2016 36% 40% 14% 11% Meeting handicap accessibility requirements 77% 2010 30% 40% 20% 9% Upgrading security cameras, 35% 37% 20% 72% 8% lighting, gates and fencing 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q11. I am going to read you some of the projects, improvements and provisions that might be included in this school bond measure. Please tell me how important it is to you that each project, improvement and provision be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample 14
Uses of Fresno Unified Bond Measure Funds, continued Ext./Very Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt./DK/NA Impt. 2016 35% 36% 18% 10% 72% Upgrading outdated classroom technology and computers 2010 31% 37% 21% 11% 68% Replacing outdated heating, air conditioning and ventilation 2016 16% 33% 45% 5% 78% systems to increase energy 2010 32% 35% 22% 10% efficiency 67% Building and upgrading career/ technical education classrooms, 33% 43% 18% 76% 6% technology and equipment Building and upgrading 2016 32% 46% 14% 7% 78% vocational education classrooms, technology and 2010 34% 39% 18% 10% 73% equipment 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254 Q11. I am going to read you some of the projects, improvements and provisions that might be included in this school bond measure. Please tell me how important it is to you that each project, improvement and provision be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. Split Sample 15
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