Study Purposes: demographic datasets Review enrollment/ Compile - PDF document

B AT E G ROUND T L P UBL IC S CHOOL S : E nrollme nt F ore c a st Ana lysis Sc hool Boa rd Pre se nta tion F e brua ry 12, 2018 E. D. Hovee & Company, LLC E c o no mic and Develo pment Servic es Ba c kg round Analysis Approach  Obtain BGSD enrollment & Study Purposes: demographic datasets •Review enrollment/  Compile regional demographic demographics & forecast trends & forecasts  Evaluate student generation •Update student  Prepare & calibrate generation rates enrollment forecast model  Refine based on BGSD input •Prepare 10 ‐ year  Prepare forecast baseline & alternative report documentation growth forecasts (by  Review with school board school & grade level) ‐ 2 ‐ 1

Popula tion T re nd •Population growth @ 3.1% per year 2000 ‐ 10 •Reduced rate of 1.7% 2010 ‐ 17 •BGSD population @ 71,900 – 2017 •15.3% of Clark Q: When & how much is Co. residents, up from 13.6% growth likely to take off? in 2000 ‐ 3 ‐ F ore c a st De ve lopme nt & Popula tion Forecast Option Forecast Options : : •Growth rate Metric Housing DUs % Add extrapolation •3 rd party Current 28,266 - DUs forecast Pending 1,845 7% (Environics) Available 16,851 60% Capacity •BG district share of county ‐ Q: With lots of room left, wide growth how fast to build ‐ out? •Housing unit GIS projection ‐ 4 ‐ 2

Othe r De mog ra phic F a c tors Birth Rates: •Birth rates declined from 2000 thru recession •Flat since (at 7% fewer than forecast by state) Grade ‐ to ‐ Grade Enrollment Change: •Some schools tend to gain students as the class advances from year ‐ to ‐ year, others lose students •Affected by starter & move ‐ up neighborhoods Q: What will Millennials do & when? ‐ 5 ‐ Stude nt Ge ne ra tion •Used to set impact fees •0.380 rate for new vs 0.423 for all BGSD housing •1/3 of MF built in last Q: Effect of more multi ‐ family units? 6 years ‐ 6 ‐ 3

Popula tion F ore c a st Baseline Forecast: •Consistent with adopted GMA •Driven by planned developments High Growth: •Reflects 35,000 net add to County Q: Will new development population ‐ 2027 be even or bumpy? •Increasing share of county growth ‐ 7 ‐ K- 12 F ore c a st Sc e na rios Enrollment up by 1,535 ‐ 2,740 students (2017 ‐ 27) ‐ 8 ‐ 4

Prima ry E nrollme nt Sc e na rios •K ‐ 4 most K ‐ 4 Total Headcount growth (#s) 7,000 5,852 6,000 •Glenwood 5,000 5,409 4,000 4,736 Heights most 3,000 new students 2,000 1,000 •0/ ‐ growth @ 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Yacolt, MG, Alternative Baseline Daybreak Enrollment up by 675 ‐ 1,115 students (2017 ‐ 27) ‐ 9 ‐ Middle Sc hool Sc e na rios •Fastest growth 5 ‐ 8 Total Headcount rate ‐ bumpy 6,000 5,039 5,000 •Most growth 4,661 4,000 4,036 @ Laurin, 3,000 2,000 Chief Umtuch 1,000 •0/ ‐ growth @ 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Amboy, MG, Alternative Baseline Daybreak Enrollment up by 625 ‐ 1,000+ students (2017 ‐ 27) ‐ 10 ‐ 5

Hig h Sc hool Sc e na rios •Slower growth 9 ‐ 12 Total Headcount (in % & #s) 6,000 4,961 5,000 •Decline, then 4,000 4,580 4,343 turnaround 3,000 2,000 •Prairie grows, 1,000 0 BGHS stable to 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 2026 fewer students Alternative Baseline Enrollment up by 240 ‐ 620 students (2017 ‐ 27) ‐ 11 ‐ Summa ry Note s Return to Enrollment Growth: •Net increase of 1,535 ‐ 2,740 students in 10 years •Growth likely faster in last half of forecast cycle Trends to Watch: •Planned development & single ‐ /multi ‐ family mix •Pace of Clark County population/job growth •Lifestyle preferences & choices of millennials (household formation, move from cities, birth rates) Thank you ‐ 12 ‐ 6