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City of Oshawa Ward Boundary Review Council Workshop on the Preliminary Options May 25, 2017 ,.J Watson f':6 &. Associates tCO"IOMIHS LTD Study Overview a Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., in association with Dr. Robert J.


  1. City of Oshawa Ward Boundary Review Council Workshop on the Preliminary Options May 25, 2017 ,.­J Watson f':6 &. Associates tCO"IOMIHS LTD

  2. Study Overview a Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., in association with Dr. Robert J. Williams, was retained to conduct the Review in August 2016 a Multi­phase assignment which began in the fall of 2016, with anticipated completion in June 2017 a Project included two rounds of public consultation ­ Round 1 (December­January) and Round 2 (May) .-JWatson W &.. Assoc ia tes LC.ONO'>\t~TS LTO

  3. Study Overview (Cont'd) a What is a Ward Boundary Review? • A task designed to develop units of representation that reflect the distribution of the inhabitants of a municipality for electoral purposes a The Review is premised on the legitimate democratic expectation that municipal representation in Oshawa will be: • Effective • Equitable • An accurate reflection of the contemporary distribution of communities and people across the City ~ Watson V &.Associate s 2 tCONOMl~TS l TO

  4. Context a Since 2006 ­ last time the City had a ward­based system ­ Oshawa has seen a 15o/o increase in population; large share of growth in North Oshawa a Over the 2017 to 2026 period, Oshawa's population is expected to increase by 1 Oo/o; 171,400 in 2017 to 188,900 in 2026 a Important that the ward boundary structure reflects the changing nature of the City ~ Watson 'II' &. Associates 3 (CONOll'\IHS LTD

  5. ~ Why a Ward Boundary Review Now? a Two factors: 1. Request by Durham Regional Council (Municipal Act, s. 218) to permit a reduction in the number of Oshawa Regional Councillors from 7 to 5 2. Direction by Council to City staff to return to the election of all members of Council in wards, following the results of a question placed on the 2014 municipal electio~ ballot (Municipal Act, s. 222) ~ Watson &.. Associates LCONO .... tl~TS l TO

  6. Key Study Objectives a Review the existing Council composition and develop recommendations for an optimal configuration a Identify plausible ward boundary options that take into account the results of the consultation process and Council composition arrangements a Prepare reports that will set out alternative ward boundaries to ensure effective and equitable electoral arrangements, based on the principles identified ~ Watson 'IV &.Associates 5 t(Ot,,OM!'iTS l TD

  7. Study Process Phase 3 Phase 1 Phase 2 • Development of Pcrellmlnary • F­Jnallze Options • Data Collection and Rese@rch G>ptlons • Final Recommendations Report • Technical Analysis on Population 'Frends and Growth • Report on P. rellmlnary Options Options to • Presentation of • lntervlaws,wJth Mayor, and • Pul>llc Consultation (Round 2) Council Members of Council • AdoRtlon ahd Implementation through By­law • Public Consultation (Round 1) • Progress Report We are here ~ Watson 1B' &. Associates 6 tCONOMJ'\'t'\ L TO

  8. Considerations for Council Composition in Oshawa a The number of Regional and City Councillors in Oshawa is fixed at five (5) a Any ward model adopted will need to have regard for some variant of a five­ward system of representation for the Regional and City Councillors · a Where the model can vary is with respect to the number of City Councillors ­ currently three (3) but perhaps some other number is more optimal? ~ Watson V g, Associates 7 ((ONOMI.STS lH>

  9. Potential Models of Municipal Representation for Oshawa a Option 1 ­ A five-ward model to elect Regional and City Councillors that can be used to elect five City Councillors, ten City Councillors (two per ward) or !1Q City Councillors a Option 2 ­ A ten-ward model in which ten City Councillors are elected in ten wards that would be used in conjunction with one of the five­ward models to elect five Regional and City Councillors a Option 3 ­ A mixed-ward model in which three City Councillors are elected in three wards that would be used in conjunction with one of the five­ward models to elect five Regional and City Councillors .IJWatson ,;:ff &. Associates 8 CCONO._ll~T .. l TO

  10. Models of Representation and Preliminary Ward Options Option 1 Options for Municipal Representation in Oshawa Option 3 Watson a. Associates 9 City Ward Options tCONOM 1ST'; L TO

  11. Five-Ward Model a One possible approach to elect five Regional and City Councillors in Oshawa is in a five­ward system and elect: • Five (5) City Councillors (one in each ward); or • No (0) City Councillors; or • Ten (10) City Councillors (two per ward) 10

  12. Five-Ward Model (Cont'd) Weaknesses Strengths. • Large wards more diversified • No change in Council salary budget • Large wa rds may decrease pool of potential • No nee d to modify CouncH chambers can didates • Strengthens local accountabili ty by having • Large scale of wards may hamper access to more City Councillors Councillors • !Provides representation te af t parts of the City on both Regional and City Council • Eas to understand • Weakens representation by h aving fewer • Reduces Council salary budget by eliminating Councillors overall three City Councillors (a net reduction of five • Weakens accountability: decisions ca n be made Councillors) by a min i mum of four officials • Simplifies representation with a single • Large increase in Councillor workloacl ; full­time representative· in each ward Councillors and possibly additional staff support required • Probably decreases the pool of potential cand idates significantly • Increases Council salar:y budget by adding seven • Strengthens representation by havi ng more City Gounallors (a net increase of five Councillors) Councill ors overall • Requires modification to Cour:icil chambers • Increases accountability: decisions must lile made by a minimum of nine officials • fDrovides representation to all pa rts of the City on both R ional and Ci Co uncil • watson • &. Associates 11 CCONOMI\T<, LTC,

  13. Five-Ward Model Options Ward Options 1JWatson W &.Associates 12 tCONOMr<.TS l TO

  14. Ward Option 5-A • Proposed Ward 1 includes rural Oshawa, Taunton as well as emerging urban growth areas in Kedron and Columbus. • Proposed Ward 2 extends from Winchester Road to Rossland Road west of Ritson Road and includes the communities of Windfields, Samac, Northwood, Northglen and Centennial. • Extending east of Ritson Road from Taunton Road to Bond Street East/King Street East, Proposed Ward 3 includes the communiti es of Pinecrest and Eastdale. • Proposed Ward 4 covers the area south of Rossland Road to Highway 401 west of Ritson Road and includes Downtown Oshawa and large portions of the Central and O'Neill neighbourhoods, as well as Vanier and McLaughlin. • South Oshawa is represented by Proposed Ward 5 which extends south from Highway 401 , Ritson Road and Bond Street East/King Street East and includes the communities of Lakeview, Farewell and Donevan. • Design achieves reasonable population parity in 2017 which improves to a more favourable population balance by ward by 2026. - 2017 2026 -- - - - ·Population Variance Population Variance - Ward Ward 1 21 ,170 0.62 34,550 0.91 33 ,530 0.98 38,290 Ward2 1.01 37,055 Ward 3 37 ,420 1. 09 I 0.98 4 1, 715 Ward4 41 , 070 1.20 1. 10 ,___ jWard 5 1. 11 , 0. 99 38 , 220 37 , 290 Total 171,410 188,~00 - - , ward Average I 34 ,282 37,780 ~ Watson LekeOnlll ri o 0 1 2 G" 3.Assoclates ­­===::iKm 13 tCONOMl<;T<; LTP

  15. Ward Option 5-B • Rural Oshawa, the community of Taunton and emerging urban growth areas in Kedron and Columbus are represented under Proposed Ward 1 which is bound by Highway 407, Ritson Road and Taunton Road to the south. • Proposed Ward 2 extends from Highway 407 to Rossland Road west of Ritson Road and Wilson Road and includes the communities of Windfields, Northwood, Samac, Northglen and Centennial. • Proposed Ward 3 extends south of Rossi and Road, west of Wilson Road, and north of King Street, Park Road and Highway 401 and includes the McLaughlin, O'Neill and Vanier communities. • Extending south of Taunton Road to Highway 401 /Bloor Street East, east of Wilson Road, Proposed Ward 4 includes the communities of Pinecrest, Eastdale and Donevan. • Proposed Ward 5 is bound to the north by Highway 401, Park Road, King Street, Wilson Road and Bloor Street East. It includes the Central community and the communities south of Highway 401. • Design achieves reasonable population parity in 2017 which improves to a more favourable population balance by ward by 2026. 2017 2026 Ward Population Variance Population Variance Ward 1 34,550 21,170 0.62 0.91 Ward2 39,160 1.14 43,825 1.16 - Ward3 36,730 1.07 36,180 0.96 Ward4 1.14 37,955 38,960 1.00 Ward5 35,390 1.03 36,390 0.96 Total 171,410 188,900 Ward Average 34,282 37,780 ~ Watson 9 &. Associates t.ske Ontario 0 2 14 --=::::iKm tCONOMIST<, I. TO

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