PANELISTS STEVE MCCANNON DEPUTY DIRECTOR REGIONAL AIR QUALITY COUNCIL
Ozone Planning Primer Colorado Energy Summit July 18, 2019 Steve McCannon Deputy Director
Overview • Very complicated situation changing rapidly so my goal is a high level overview of the ozone situation, provide you with some take home materials and invite you to participate in our efforts. • Today I will cover: • Who is the RAQC? • Overview of the Denver/NFR Ozone Compliance • Ozone Planning • 2008 SIP Planning • 2015 SIP Planning • Conclusions February 6, 2019 3
Who is the Regional Air Quality Council Lead air quality planning agency for the 9 county Denver Metro/North Front Range created by EO of the Governor Primary responsibilities • Planning to meet federal air quality standards (SIPs) and state standards • Conduct programs of public education and awareness • Implement public/private projects to reduce emissions and improve air quality • Represent and assist local governments in the air quality planning process February 6, 2019 4
Denver Metro/ North Front Range Compliance with NAAQS
8-Hour Ozone Trends and Federal Standards 3-Year Design Values in the Denver Metro/North Front Range Max. 3-yr. Avg. 4 th Max NRE RF CHA 8-Hr Avg. Ozone in parts per billion L N T Key Year Marginal Moderate Serious Severe-15 Marginal Moderate Serious (ppb) 1997 Standard 2008 2015 (revoked) Standard Standard 8-Hour Ozone Standard: Based on a three-year average of the annual forth-highest daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentration. Current as of 9/30/18. February 6, 2019 6
Ozone Levels Statewide February 6, 2019 7 7
Sources of NOx Emissions - What is Being Done? ✔ New car/truck standards ✔ Cleaner fuels/ Alternative fuels ✔ Inspection/maintenance programs ✔ Diesel retrofits ✔ New vehicle technologies ✔ Transportation/land use policies ✔ Travel reduction programs ✔ Power Plants • Clean Air Clean Jobs Act • Regional Haze program • Renewable energy/ energy efficiency programs ✔ Small engine standards ✔ Non-road engine standards ✔ Locomotive engine standards ✔ Emissions Standards for Large Engines and Boilers February 6, 2019 8
Sources of VOC Emissions - What is Being Done? ✔ New car/truck standards ✔ Cleaner fuels/ Alternative fuels ✔ Inspection/maintenance programs ✔ New vehicle technologies ✔ Transportation/land use policies ✔ Travel reduction programs ✔ Oil and Gas (O&G) • New regulations established by Air Quality Control Commission in Feb. 2014 ✔ Lawn and garden equipment change-out programs February 6, 2019 9
DM/NFR Ozone Planning Timeline (75 ppb/70 Base Year Modeling Complete ppb) 6/30/201 9 2008 (75 ppb) Standard Attainment Date - Moderate 7/20/201 Moderate Serious 9 2020 Attainment Modeling Complete 11/29/201 9 2015 (70 ppb) Standard Reclassification from Moderate to Serious 12/31/201 Marginal 9 1/15/2021 - Serious SIP Due Legis. Review (Serious SIP) 1/20/202 5/21/2021 0 Serious SIP Submitted to EPA (conditional) 7/1/202 0 Serious SIP Submitted to EPA 5/31/202 RAQC Endorsement 2/7/202 1 0 Attainment Date - Serious 7/20/202 AQCC Public Hearing 5/21/202 1 201 Q1 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 202 Q1 Q3 202 Q3 202 Q3 202 Q3 202 Q3 202 Q3 9 5 0 1 2 3 4 8/3/202 1/1/202 Toda 0 3 y Base Year Emissions Inventory Due Moderate SIP Due 5/31/202 8/3/202 3 1 Moderate SIP Submitted to EPA Attainment Date - Marginal 12/27/201 8/3/202 9 10/20/202 4 2023 Attainment Modeling Complete Attainment Date - 2 AQCC Public Hearing Moderate 7/1/202 2 RAQC Endorsement 2/1/202 2 Reclassification from Marginal to Moderate 1/1/2019 - 1/15/2023 - Legis. Review (Moderate) Strategy Analysis 12/31/2019 5/19/2023 6/1/2019 - Strategy Rulemaking/Implementation February 6, 2019 February 6, 2019 10 4/30/2023
What Goes Into an Ozone Plan?
Moderate vs. Serious Area SIP Requirements Serious Moderate (75 ppb Std.) (70 ppb Std.) Base Year 2016 – Modeling 2016 – Modeling 2011/17 – Em. Inv. 2017 – Em. Inv. Photochemical Modeling 2020 Future Year 2023 Future Year +9% ↓ VOC or NOx 15% ↓ VOC or NOx Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) 01/18-12/20 01/18-12/23 Reasonably Available Control Major Source = Major Source = Technology (RACT SIP) 50 tpy (NOx or VOC) 100 tpy (NOx or VOC) ✔ ✔ Reasonably Available Control Measures Inspection/Maintenance Program Enhanced Basic Nonattainment Area New Source 1.2:1 1.15:1 Review (NANSR) - Emission offset ratio for VOC ✔ ✔ Contingency Measures (3% ↓ VOC / NOx) ✔ ✔ Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets February 6, 2019 12 ✔ Clean Fuel-Vehicle Programs ✔ Transportation Control
Control Measures in 2017 Inventory ▪ Federal On-Road and Non-Road Mobile Source Standards/Regulations ▪ Inspection and Maintenance Program ▪ Oil and Gas Regulations ▪ 7.8 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) with 1 PSI Ethanol Waiver (8.8 RVP) ▪ Stage I Vapor Recovery at Gas Stations ▪ Power Plant Emissions Reductions – Clean Air Clean Jobs & Regional Haze ▪ Other Stationary Source Regulations ▪ Reasonably Available Control Measures ▪ Non federally enforceable measures ▪ From energy efficiency programs, small business programs, expanding the use of electric vehicles, mower exchanges, and bicycle and pedestrian programs to name a few. February 6, 2019 13
Background Ozone
Background Ozone • Background ozone is a significant issue, especially in the West • “Background ozone” is ozone arising from natural events and non-U.S. anthropogenic sources • Past and recent studies have shown >55-60% of high ozone in NFR and Colorado due to background ozone February 6, 2019 15
Planning Efforts for the 2008 (75 ppb) Ozone Standard
2008 Serious SIP Planning • We’ve identified sources of emissions • Determined relative contributions • Strategies will we use are already in process (AIM, etc.) • Requires a demonstration of future attainment • Clean Air Act allows states to flag and remove air quality data influenced by exceptional events (EE) • Colorado flagged 9/2 and 9/4 in 2017 due to significant wildfire smoke influence and submitted documentation to EPA in May 2018 February 6, 2019 17
Planning Efforts for the 2015 (70 ppb) Ozone Standard
2015 Moderate SIP Planning Currently investigating multiple strategies across sources including: Stationary/ Mobile Sources/ Transportation/ Area Sources Fuels Land Use/Outreach • • • Reasonably Available Control Colorado Low Emission Automobile Alternative fuel commercial lawn Technology (RACT) for major point Regulation (CLEAR) and garden equipment • • sources Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) Transportation and land use • Oil and gas controls electric mandate strategies • • generating units (EGU) Low Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) Ozone outreach programs aimed at • Architectural and industrial gasolines encouraging behavior change • maintenance (AIM) coatings and Clean diesel fuel/clean construction consumer products equipment • • Agriculture and marijuana Alternatively fueled operations vehicles/refueling/retrofit programs • 2016 Volkswagen settlement and mitigation plan Sign-up to receive notifications at: https://raqc.org/email-signup/ February 6, 2019 19
In Conclusion • This work is complicated and much of the low hanging fruit is gone. • We are reducing NOx and VOCs and Ozone levels are trending downwards. • In the future we are focusing more on NOx sources • 2008 SIP is due 5/2021 to EPA with a 7/2021 attainment date • Strategies are already in process • 2015 SIP is due 1/2023 with a 8/2024 attainment date • Join us during our planning process. • https://raqc.org/email-signup/ February 6, 2019 20
Contact Information Steve McCannon Deputy Director smccannon@raqc.org (303) 629-5450 x 230 www.raqc.or g
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