STATE OF THE REGION CONTEXT STATE OF THE REGION Global Economic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

STATE OF THE REGION

CONTEXT STATE OF THE REGION

Global Economic Impacts STATE OF THE REGION

Global Unemployment Rates ‐ 5 Years 14% 2011 2016 11.8% 12% 10.8% 10.1% 10.0% 10% 9.1% 8% 7.1% 7.0% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 6% 5.2% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.3% 4.1% 4% 3.1% 2% 0% US Japan China Canada Euro AreaAustrialia India Brazil Russia Source: The Economist October 22, 2016

Projected GDP 2013,2014,2015,2016 10% 7.7% 7.6% 8% 6.6% 6% 4.9% 4% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2% 1.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0% ‐ 0.4% ‐ 0.7% ‐ 2% ‐ 3.2% ‐ 4% ‐ 6% US Japan China Canada Euro AreaAustrialia India Brazil Russia 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: The Economist October 22 , 2016

GDP GDP Pe Per Capit Capita (2015) (2015) $70,000 $65,400 $60,000 $55,800 $50,000 $45,600 $37,800 $38,100 $40,000 $30,000 $25,400 $20,000 $15,600 $14,100 $10,000 $6,200 $0 US Japan China Canada Euro Austrialia India Brazil Russia Area 2015 Source: The World Bank, October, 2016

Forecast Summer 2016 Sources: TIP Industries U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted); NBER (recession dates); New York Times (format )

Value of the U.S. Dollar Source: MacroTrends.net

Geopolitics Get More Important Every Year STATE OF THE REGION

STATE OF THE REGION

USA Nonfarm Payroll Employment Millions of Persons 150 150 15.3 million jobs added since February 2010 ‐ The longest streak September 144.74 mil. 145 145 of private job growth in history 140 140 135 135 130 130 125 125 120 120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

Average Hourly Earnings 12 Month % Change 4.0 4.0 Monthly % Change Sep. 0.2% Aug. 0.1% 3.5 3.5 Jul. 0.4% June 0.1% May 0.2% 3.0 3.0 September 2.6% 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

Total Job Net Gain July 2015 to July 2016 2.4 million Utilities Information Professional & Wholesale Mining & Logging Financial Business Services Trade Construction Manufacturing Education & Health Transportation & Warehousing Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality

Dow Dow Jo Jones ‐ 2006 2006 ‐ 2016 2016

STATE OF THE REGION

States By Average Rankings and Performance 50 WY Ranks by Forbes, Worse WV Performance 45 CT CNBC, and Chief Than Rank MS NM KY 40 VA AL Executive MD KS AK 35 NJ AR ME VT Average DE MO 30 Statistical IL LA AZ Plotted Against Ranking PA SD OK IN 25 OH NV WI HA TN SC MT NE 20 NY Actual NH IA RI MI NC ID GA OR 15 MN Performance for FL MA UT CO TX 10 Job Growth, Wage WA CA Better ND 5 Performance Growth and Than Rank 0 Growth in GDP 0 10 20 30 40 50 Average "Best States" ranking

2017 St 2017 State Business Business Ta Tax Clim Climate In Index – St State Ranking Ranking (1 is Best, 50 is Worst) Corporate Tax Individual Income Sales Tax Property Tax Overall Alabama 32nd 14 22 48 16 Arkansas 38th 40 29 44 24 Florida 4th 19 1 28 10 Georgia 36th 10 42 33 21 Kentucky 34th 28 30 13 36 Louisiana 41st 36 27 50 30 Maryland 42nd 21 46 14 42 Mississippi 28th 12 20 38 35 Missouri 15th 5 28 24 7 North Carolina 11th 4 15 19 31 Oklahoma 31st 9 38 36 12 South Carolina 37th 15 41 31 26 Tennessee 13th 22 8 46 29 Texas 14th 49 6 37 37 Virginia 33rd 6 40 11 28 West Virginia 18th 17 26 15 13 Source: 2017 State Tax Climate Index

Southern Southern St States es 1 ‐ Ye Year Emplo Employment Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7%2.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ‐ 0.5% ‐ 0.7% ‐ 1.0% ‐ 1.0% ‐ 1.5% USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Southern Southern St States es 1 ‐ Ye Year Ma Manuf nufactur uring Em Emplo ployment Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016 6.0% 4.4% 4.0% 1.8%2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% ‐ 0.2% ‐ 0.3% ‐ 0.4% ‐ 0.5% ‐ 1.2% ‐ 2.0% ‐ 1.5% ‐ 1.7% ‐ 3.1% ‐ 4.0% ‐ 5.1% ‐ 6.0% ‐ 7.3% ‐ 8.0% USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Southern Southern St States es 1 ‐ Ye Year Pr Professional & Business Business Ser Servic ices Em Emplo ployment Chang Changes Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016 8.0% 6.4% 6.0% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.4% 4.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% ‐ 2.0% ‐ 2.6% ‐ 3.1% ‐ 4.0% ‐ 6.0% ‐ 5.6% ‐ 8.0% USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

‐ 4.0% ‐ 3.0% ‐ 2.0% ‐ 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.8% Alabama ‐ 0.6% Alaska 2.3% Arizona Arkansas 1.5% 2.3% California 2.7% Colorado 0.8% Connecticut 2.9% % Em Delaware 1.9% District of Columbia 3.4% Emplo Florida Southern St Southern 2.8% Georgia 2.5% ployment Chang Hawaii 3.2% Idaho 0.7% Illinois 1.5% Indiana 1.9% Iowa ‐ 0.4% Kansas 1.4% Kentucky ‐ 1.0% Changes Sep Louisiana 0.5% Maine 1.7% Maryland 2.2% Utah Delaware Washington 3.2% Idaho Florida Oregon ‐ Massachusetts States 2.0% Michigan 1.6% Minnesota 0.7% Sept 2015 Mississippi 1.1% Missouri 0.2% Montana es 1 ‐ Ye 1.0% Nebraska 2015 to 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 2.7% Nevada 2.1% New Hampshire 1.3% New Jersey ‐ 0.4% to Sep New Mexico 1.1% New York Year 1.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Sept 2016 North Carolina ‐ 1.3% North Dakota 1.4% Ohio ‐ 0.7% Oklahoma 2016 3.5% Oregon 0.9% Pennsylvania 1.1% Rhode Island 2.7% South Carolina 2.5% South Dakota Tennessee 2.5% 1.7% Texas 2.9% Utah 2.0% Vermont 2.1% Virginia 3.2% Washington 0.1% West Virginia 1.2% Wisconsin ‐ 3.2% Wyoming

Al All St States es 1 ‐ Ye Year To Total Em Emplo ployment Chang Changes Sep Sept 2015 2015 to to Sep Sept 2016 2016 400,000 Total added jobs 2,447,000 379,700 California ‐ 379,700 350,000 Florida ‐ 276,300 Texas ‐ 206,800 300,000 276,300 Georgia ‐ 118,700 250,000 New York ‐ 106,600 Washington ‐ 100,500 206,800 200,000 150,000 118,700 106,600 100,500 84,900 100,000 82,600 81,100 78,300 73,400 71,300 69,200 61,500 61,600 53,400 54,400 51,500 46,200 46,100 43,400 44,200 50,000 39,800 36,000 34,300 31,100 29,600 21,500 25,800 16,300 15,900 14,600 18,600 12,900 13,900 12,800 10,600 9,600 7,900 6,200 5,300 3,100 1,000 600 0 ‐ 2,000 ‐ 3,100 ‐ 5,900 ‐ 5,700 ‐ 9,200 ‐ 11,300 ‐ 19,800 ‐ 50,000 Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Gains By Sector for the United States and NC September 2015 ‐ 2016 1.9% Total 1.7% 4.8% Construction 3.4% ‐ 0.3% Manufacturing ‐ 0.4% 2.7% Trade, Transport & Utilities 1.6% ‐ 0.9% NC Financial 2.0% USA 4.5% Professional & Technical Services 2.9% 1.8% Education & Health Services 2.7% 1.1% Leisure & Hospitality 2.4% 0.9% Government 0.7% ‐ 2% ‐ 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Gains By Sector for the SC, VA and NC September 2015 ‐ 2016 2.7% 1.9% Total 2.1% 3.0% 4.8% Construction 2.2% 1.8% ‐ 0.3% Manufacturing ‐ 1.7% 1.5% 2.7% Trade, Transport & Utilities 2.8% SC 3.3% ‐ 0.9% Financial NC 1.4% VA 6.4% 4.5% Professional & Technical Services 4.0% 5.7% 1.8% Education & Health Services 3.4% 1.6% 1.1% Leisure & Hospitality 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% Government 0.6% ‐ 3% ‐ 2% ‐ 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

NC Change in Number of Jobs 2014 ‐ 2015 North Carolina Average 2.6% Alleghany Ashe Northampton Surry Stokes Rockingham Gates Caswell Person Warren Watauga Halifax Hertford Wilkes Yadkin Forsyth Avery Guilford Franklin Bertie Alex- Yancey Caldwell Davie Nash ander Madison Edgecombe Iredell Davidson Randolph Wash- Tyrrell Dare Martin Burke Wake ington Buncombe McDowell Catawba Chatham Wilson Haywood Rowan Pitt Swain Beaufort Rutherford Johnston Hyde Lincoln Graham Cabarrus Henderson Lee Greene Jackson Mont- Harnett Wayne Polk Gaston Stanly Moore Tran- gomery Cherokee Clay Macon Cleveland Lenoir Craven sylvania Pamlico Rich- Hoke Sampson Jones Union Anson mond Duplin Scot- Carteret land Onslow Robeson Bladen Pender Growth above state average of 2.6% Columbus New Growing below state average of 2.6% Hanover Brunswick Losing Jobs Source: NC Department of Commerce