State of Affordable Housing: Monday, January 22 nd , 2018 Northwest - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

State of Affordable Housing: Monday, January 22 nd , 2018 Northwest Credit Union Foundation Affordable Housing Summit Our Vision All people live with dignity in safe, healthy, and affordable homes within communities of opportunity

Goals for Today • Understand the current context of affordable housing • Learn about some of the ways HDC and our member organizations work to meet the need • Explore roles that CUs can engage in to help ease the crisis

HDC’s Purpose • HDC exists solely to serve as an advocate , broker and convener of and for our 150 member organizations and businesses. • Since its inception 30 years ago, HDC and our members have known that it takes a unique set of personal and professional skills to increase the effectiveness, visibility, and impact of the affordable housing sector. • Mission : Through education , advocacy and leadership , HDC supports and inspires its members as they work collaboratively to meet the housing needs of limited-income people throughout King County.

What we know Every community in Washington needs more affordable homes • Our region’s uneven economic growth has contributed to the need • No city in King County is meeting the proportional need for homes • affordable to households at or below 30% AMI

2017 2015 2013 Most Important Problem: 2017 Homelessness 28 % Lack of affordable housing 16 % 28% Traffic 8% 5% Homelessnes Transportation 8% s 4% Government / Administration 7% Growth 5% 16% Cost of living 4% 12% Lack of affordable housing Poor infrastructure 3% 2% Crime / Drugs 3% School / Education 3% 16% High taxes 2% 29% Traffic / Transportation Other 9% 35% No Answer /Don't know 5%

Some Would Call This a Pretty Wicked Problem! The notion of “wicked problems” is explored in detail in: Developmental Evaluation: Applying Complexity Concepts to Enhance Innovation and Use by Michael Quinn Patton (The Guilford Press, 2010)

A “Wicked Problem”… … is difficult to define; … has tangled root causes; … involves stakeholders with diverse values, interests, and positions; … varies from person to person and community to community; … is constantly evolving; and … has no obvious answers or measures of success.

Median Home Values: Puget Sound Counties Percent from pre-crisis peak +33% +15% +7% +4% +2% -6% Courtesy of Zillow

Median Rents: Puget Sound Counties Courtesy of Zillow

Average Weekly Wages: Growth from 2005 and 2012 Notes : Other Seattle Metro includes Pierce and Snohomish counties; Other Puget Sound includes Thurston,Mason and Kitsap Counties. 3-quartermoving average. Geography based on employerlocation. Source : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census ofEmploymentand Wages. Courtesy of Zillow

Mortgage Rates Still Near Historic Lows Despite a Strong Labor Market Courtesy of Zillow

Very Few Affordable Homes for Sale for Low-Income Households Courtesy of Zillow

Cost burden is a measure of whether or not housing is affordable. Cost burden is both a concept and a data term. HUD determines a household to be cost burdened if the household spend more than 30% of their income on housing Households that spend more than 50% are also considered severely cost burdened Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

290,100 Households (1 in 3) in King County are Cost-Burdened in 2017. Severely Cost- Cost-Burdened All Cost-Burdened AMI Burdened Households Households Households 0-30% AMI 25,400 75,700 101,100 >30-50% AMI 43,300 28,900 72,200 >50-80% AMI 53,900 13,100 67,000 >80-125% AMI 32,200 3,500 35,700 +125% AMI 12,600 1,500 14,100 All Incomes 167,400 122,700 290,100 Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

Housing Cost Burden King County > 45% of renters are cost % of Owner Homeowner Cost Burden by Region, 2015 burdened, countywide, Households compared to 29% of homeowners. Cost Burdened Homeowners > South King and North King areas Severely Cost Burdened Homeowners 35% have slightly greater share of 31% 31% 31% cost-burdened owners. 29% 29% 28% 28% 30% 20% 19% 19% 18% 19% 17% 17% 25% King County, 2015 50% 20% Cost Burdened 45% Severely Cost 24% 15% 40% Burdened 29% 12% 10% 12% 12% 30% 11% 11% 11% 9% 18% 5% 20% 21% 0% 10% King Seattle Eastside S. Central South North King East King 11% County King King 0% 470,600 137,300 107,600 89,900 71,000 34,900 29,900 Home Owners Renters Sources: US Census Bureau, ACS 2015 5-Year Estimates; Community Attributes 2017 Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

Renter Cost Burden Housing Cost Burden > Among renters, South King County % of Renter Central King, South King, Renter Cost Burden by Region, 2015 Households and North King have 60% noticeably higher shares of Cost Burdened Cost Burdened Renters 52% Households. 51% Severely Cost Burdened 49% 50% Renters 45% 44% 41% 40% 26% 28% 36% 25% King County, 2015 24% 24% 22% 30% 50% Cost Burdened 45% 19% Severely Cost 24% 40% Burdened 20% 29% 30% 25% 24% 24% 18% 21% 10% 20% 19% 17% 20% 21% 0% 10% King County Seattle Eastside S. Central South King North King East King 11% King 0% 349,000 160,800 60,300 69,800 34,400 17,400 6,300 Home Owners Renters Sources: US Census Bureau, ACS 2015 5-Year Estimates; Community Attributes 2017 Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

Greater Numbers of Renters Experiencing Cost Burden Seattle: 36.5% SeaTac: 44.2% Housingconsortium.org/maps

Many types of households struggle with housing costs 3 person HH at 30% AMI 2 person household under 80% AMI > Cashier earning $25,410*, $12.20/hr > Full-time taxi driver earning $26,340 plus childcare worker > Home health aide earning $26,038 earning $25,864, $12.40/hr > Full-time welder earning $48,548 > Retired couple earning $42,200 in pensions 2 person HH at 50% AMI 4 person household under 80% AMI > Teacher earning $37,447 > Biologist earning $76,900 > Restaurant cook earning $30,281 > Accountan t earning $69,940 > Full-time office clerk earning $37,566 plus full-time security guard earning $32,427 *All salaries represent the median annual salary for the occupation in King and Snohomish Counties as reported by WA ESD 2017 Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

Many factors of supply and demand affect the price of housing. DEMAND SUPPLY Incomes and income Available inventory inequality on the market Growth of Net new households and jobs development Household sizes and Vacancy rates composition Development costs Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

The number of homes available for purchase has declined steadily since the recession. King County Homes Available For Sale, 2010-2017 > Source: Zillow, 2017 Homes For 14,000 13,234 Sale 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 3,289 2,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

Housing development has struggled to keep pace with dramatic population growth. The past two years have King County seen unprecedented growth Annual Change in Households and Housing in each of the following in Units, 2000-2017 King County HHs & HUs > net new households per year > housing units built 25,000 > gap in household Households Housing Units increases over units built 20,600 20,000 Source: OFM, 2017 15,000 14,000 12,900 11,400 10,300 9,900 9,400 10,000 8,500 8,200 6,400 5,000 - 2000-2005 2005-2007 2007-2010 2010-2015 2015-2017 Recession: 2001-2003 Recession: 2008-2009 Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

Countywide growth in households has included upper income households more than middle and lower incomes. > Higher income households Change in King County Households, have increased by Income Range, 2006 - 2016 substantially more than the number of lower and middle income Households households, since 2006. 70,000 65,500 > The data have been adjusted for inflation. 60,000 50,000 40,000 All King Co. Households, by Income, 2016 30,000 23,900 350k 319,500 19,600 292,000 20,000 300k 249,700 250k 10,000 200k 150k - 100k Lower Income Middle Income Upper Income 50k $125,000 or More $50,000 - $124,999 Less than $50,000 0k <$50k $50k $125k > $125k Sources: US Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates; Community Attributes 2017 Courtesy Community Attributes, King County Housing Affordability Task Force

Average Area Rent Increases of Around 5 percent per Year, Push About 258 Seattle Metro Households into Homelessness Courtesy of Zillow

Low-Income Renters in High Rent Growth ZIP Codes are ~2x Less Secure than Low-Income Renters in Low Rent Growth ZIP Codes Source : Zillow Homeownership Aspirations Report, March 2017. Courtesy of Zillow

As the share of income spent on rent rises, households are increasingly unable to save any of their income Source : Zillow analysisof Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Households Economics and Decision Making, 2015. Courtesy of Zillow