South China Sea: Conflict Solution Jaymi-Lyn Souza, Nicholas Clark, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

South China Sea: Conflict Solution Jaymi-Lyn Souza, Nicholas Clark, Noah Aurelio, Timothy Jarvis Worcester State University Yale IPC 2018

Historical Context Ambiguous territorial ➢ There has never been an ➢ claims in regions of the agreed upon claim over South China Sea have the region allowed contentious As a result, disputes in the ➢ situations to develop area has been between nations in the characterized by rising region. and falling periods of conflict 2

1. THE PROBLEM What makes this issue significant?

“ “China will never move an inch on its core interests of sovereignty and territorial integrity and will always stand up for that at any cost.” - Li Hongmei, The People’s Daily, 2011 4

The Issues ➢ Sovereignty, everyone lays claim to the region. ➢ Economics, the region is in a strategic trade location and has various important resources. ➢ Military, everyone has military pressure in the region. ➢ U.S occupies the international waters in the SCS. 5

2. THE SOLUTION How can we placate China and the U.S. while ensuring the economic prosperity of the entire region? 6

The Policy: First Steps 1. Negotiations 2. Treaty takes effect a) Bring the nations to the a) South China Sea Treaty Regulatory Council is established under UN’s negotiating table Economic and Social Commision i) Precedent in the 2002 of Asia and Pacific. Declaration on the Conduct b) South China Sea Investment Bank of Parties in the South China is Established. Sea c) Demilitarization and investment in b) The involved nations then trade infrastructure in South agree upon and sign a China Sea treaty. 7

Elements of the South China Sea Trade Treaty Council Created as Signed by: U.S., China, If council finds member Subcommittee of ESCAP in Myanmar/Burma,Thailand, does not uphold treaty UN . SCSTRC consists of 1 Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, duties, or displays military delegate from each member Malaysia, Singapore, intimidation near the SCS, state and hold annual Indonesia, Brunei, nation given 1 year to meetings to monitor Philippians address and solve issue. adherence to treaty. Takes effect immediately If member nation does not Council creates investment resolve issue after 1 year, China supports North Korea bank for SCS region to tready is nullified, thus denuclearisation stimulate trade threatening remilitarization Demilitarisation and infrastructure (China to keep nations faithful to economic prosperity for contributes initial sum) treaty. South China Sea by 2025 Distributed proportionately. 8

How Do We Define the South China Sea? International Law Zone China’s Nine-Dash Line 9

3. The Policy Impact 10

Impacts Short Term Mid Term Long Term 2025- Tenstion deescilates Investments allocated to Demilitarisation in South member nations China Sea Investments begin in proportionate to need SCSTRC Investment Trade infrastructure and (by GDP) bank prosperity grown in Efficient use of South China Sea Region U.S. and China begin resources by capable demilitarisation and nations work together on North Korea’s denuclearisation 11

4. Identifying and Combating Potential Problems What can go wrong, and how do we combat that?

Specific Allocations to Involved Parties United States ASEAN China 1. Nuclear 1. The economic 1. U.S. leaving the disarmament in growth they desire Chinese sphere of North Korea without military Influence 2. Eventual conflict through 2. Mediate control demilitarization in trade investment over the region of the SCS Zone 2. Use of the SCS the SCS 3. U.S. gets a transit zone 3. Energy security pass for commercial 3. Fair prices on oil through access to vessels in the region proportionate to oil their GDP 13

Other issues... Issue: The US and ASEAN fear China gaining too much power - Counter: The U.N. regulatory subcommittee established for the region (SCSTRC) will check Chinese power - If there is a violation that cannot be solved within one year the treaty becomes null and void. Issue: The proposal is too radical - Counter: This is conflict resolution, which varies from the norm. - China is the strongest power in the region, the other nations haven’t been able to band together, other countries get benefits and we avoid military conflict 14

5. Conclusion

Concluding Thoughts We believe that this is the most realistic way to spur rapid advancement while also preventing conflict in the region. No policy is guaranteed to work, but we must look to precedent and the social climate in the various nations involved and try to find the best solution possible. 16

Questions? 17

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