Le Lever eraging ging Urb Urban aniz ization tion in in So Sout uth h As Asia ia Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability Sohaib Athar Urban Specialist, Pakistan Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice 1
Urbanization in Pakistan • Pakistan is the most urbanized % of Total Population Urban large country in South Asia 40 35 • Urban centers account for over half of Pakistan’s GDP 30 25 • Urbanization provides an 20 opportunity to transform 15 economies and enhance both 10 prosperity and livability 5 0 • Vision 2025 of the Govt. of Pakistan places a premium on job growth in cities Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011)
Framework for Harnessing Urbanization Urbanization City size and spatial structure Governance Connectivity & Finance & Planning Agglomeration Congestion economies forces Productivity, skills, Pressures on jobs & innovation infrastructure & Land & Disaster markets Housing Resilience Outcomes Prosperity Livability
Considerable hidden urbanization Agglomeration Index United Nations 60 % of Total Population Urban 50 40 30 20 10 0 Pakistan India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010) and UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011) • Officially, roughly 40 percent of Pakistanis live in urban settlements • Agglomeration Index shows urban share at 56 percent (2010 results)
Pakistan is not leveraging agglomeration properly for prosperity 12 10 ln GDP per capita LKA BTN IND PAK PAK 8 BGD NPL AFG 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 Agglomeration index South Asia Other Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010), and World Bank World Development Indicators data
South Asian cities can improve livability City Ranking New Delhi 110 Urban Poverty Rates Mumbai 115 Kathmandu 125 Colombo 127 Karachi 135 Dhaka 139 Developing country averages South Asia 125 All developing exc. South Asia 103 East Asia and Pacific 93 Source: EIU (2015), Data reused with permission of the Economist Intelligence Unit
Sindh and Punjab lead in urbanization and cities’ share of GDP GDP per capita, % share of $ (2005, national GDP nominal) Urban Rural Urban Rural Punjab 35% 25.2% 744 715 Sindh 18% 10.5% 781 644 KP 1.5% 6.5% 394 471 Total 55.2% 44.8% 731 638 Source: Estimates based on World Development Indicators 2012, Source: Based on Census 1998, UN World Urbanization Prospects Census of Manufacturing Industries 2005-06 and Labor Force Survey (2011) and estimations from Labor Force Survey data 2009-2011 data
Pakistan’s urban corridor intensifying around key cities Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data
sss Change in Light Intensity between Annual GDP Growth Rate Estimates 1999 and 2010 1999 to 2010 Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data
Crossing borders through urbanization • The Lahore agglomeration meets Delhi’s equivalent, forming one continuously lit belt of 67 cities with an estimated population of 73.4 million • This is slightly less than the population of Turkey Agglomeration formed despite lack of regional integration
Multi-city agglomerations in Pakistan Urban Expansion in and around Lahore, 1999 to 2010 • The formation of new agglomerations was actually outpaced by merging of existing agglomerations between 1999-2010 • The Lahore agglomeration has expanded to absorb those of Chiniot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Lalamusa and Sialkot. o Yellow and green areas: urban footprints in 1999 o Pink areas: urban footprint in 2010 Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), the Earth Institute at Columbia University
Lahore’s most rapid growth is on the periphery Often these agglomerations and urban expansions have detrimental effects on the urban cores Dimming cores, bright peripheries indicate a move of population or industry, particularly manufacturing, to a city’s edges Pakistan’s cities are growing outward and not upward, increasing the challenges for planning, transportation and providing public services
Changes in Light Intensity (1999 to 2010) in Punjab’s major clusters and Sindh province Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data
Urbanization has been messy • Not only slums, but also sprawl • Urban footprint (size of the built-up area) in South Asia growing at 2x rate of urban population growth • In Punjab’s large cities, urban land area expanded by 9.6% per annum on average from 1999 to 2010 • Medium sized cities 4.3% per annum • Multan, Bahawalpur, Khanpur and Rahim Yar Khan more than 10% per annum • These belts present an opportunity, but will require better coordination between different urban local governments Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of DMSP-OLS night lights data
Connectivity and market access drive growth of spatial clusters • Inter-city transportation links are very good • Growth is concentrated along several clusters o Faisalabad-Lahore-Sialkot triangle o Islamabad-Rawalpindi corridor o Karachi-Hyderabad corridor • Growth is driven by access to markets, which is produced by proximity and access to transport infrastructure
High-tech manufacturing is concentrated in several clusters Number of Workers • Most of Pakistan’s high -tech jobs are concentrated in a handful of cities: o Karachi in Sindh, and Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, and Rawalpindi and Punjab o 5 cities represent nearly 43% of the nation’s total employment in high-tech jobs • Nearly 25% of employment in high tech jobs are found in what are defined as non- urban areas in Punjab o Possible that these are located in urban peripheries or near major highways Source: Estimates from CMI data.
Some cities have high manufacturing jobs Employment Shares in major cities, by sectors 100 1 3 4 3 1 6 8 1 9 10 8 8 8 90 12 8 7 7 5 19 8 9 6 10 5 6 80 9 11 4 7 5 8 % of city employment 9 9 6 7 10 70 13 9 13 8 10 4 15 60 16 32 31 50 31 31 32 35 42 40 36 30 30 20 40 36 32 30 29 15 25 10 18 17 6 0 Sialkot Faisalabad Karachi Gujranwala Lahore Multan Peshawar Rawalpindi Islamabad Manufacturing Trading Public Admin Construction Transport Health & Education Agriculture Finance Source: World Bank staff based on Labour Force Surveys 2008-2011
Slum shares exceed high poverty rates Slums and informal settlements occupied not by only the urban poor, but also middle income households
Cities face large scale housing needs Percent of Urban slum Lower-bound est. Urban population Country population living in population 2010 housing backlog 2010 (000) slums (000) 2010 (000) Afghanistan 7,300 88.6 6,468 898 Bangladesh 41,476 61.6 25,549 5,807 Bhutan 253 - - - India 378,775 17.4 65,907 18,307 Maldives 126 - - - Nepal 4,990 58.1 2,899 483 Pakistan 62,290 46.6 29,027 4,398 Sri Lanka 3,188 12.0 383 101 Sources: UN World Urbanization Prospects: 2011 Revision; UNESCAP 2012, 126; UN-HABITAT 2013, 126 – 28; and Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner 2013. Note: – = not available. Data on proportion of urban population living in slums are for the most recently available years, as follows: 2011 (India); 2009 (Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan); 2005 (Afghanistan and Sri Lanka).
Recap: Framework for Harnessing Urbanization Urbanization City size and spatial structure Governance Connectivity & Finance & Planning Agglomeration Congestion economies forces Productivity, skills, Pressures on jobs & innovation infrastructure & Land & Disaster markets Housing Resilience Outcomes Prosperity Livability
Removing 3 Deficits in Urban governance and Finance Limited, overlapping & fragmented functional Empowerment assignments with inappropriate/excessive deficit central/state/provincial control Financial basis extremely weak: limited revenue Resource powers and inappropriately conceived/targeted deficit intergovernmental transfers Accountability Despite elections & RTI, accountability mechanisms deficit are weak and underutilized
Karachi: the megacity of Pakistan I N S I G H T S I N T O K A R A C H I ’ S U R B A N E C O N O M Y A N D L A N D S C A P E
Karachi is vital to Pakistan’s economy COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT IN KARACHI Karachi makes a vital contribution to 2.8 0.6 Pakistan’s economy: 3.8 7.6 About 15% of national GDP Almost 5.5% of domestic employment 8.9 32.3 GDP per capita 44% higher than nationally 12.9 City remains Pakistan’s manufacturing powerhouse 31.1 Strong GDP growth and employment generation Finance & real estate Manufacuring Trading Public admin Transport & comms Health & education But weak productivity growth Construction Agriculture Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of Labor Force Survey data for 2008-2011,
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